For those of us constantly obsessing over how well Auburn would stack up against the rest of the SEC, I’ve created this handy table — the Vegas Lines Matrix. For more information on what the Vegas Lines Matrix is, how it works, and why you should care, check out a prior week’s column.
Changes this week
Based on how all teams played last week, I (acting on behalf of Vegas bookies) have adjusted the matchup lines you could expect if these teams played this week. A few things to mention first: In order to “improve” a team’s odds, one of three things needs to occur: 1) the team needed to improve on their per game statistics in the past week, or 2) their opponent’s per game statistics needs to get worse, 3) the team needs to move up in the polls.
In Auburn’s remaining games, we see the following changes:
Auburn @ Ole Miss: Line moved from Auburn being a 10-point favorite to a 11.5-point favorite.
Chattanooga @ Auburn: This game is off the board, Auburn would likely be a 45-point favorite.
Georgia @ Auburn: Line moves from Auburn being a 17-point favorite to a 15-point favorite.
Auburn @ Alabama: Line moves from Auburn being a 7.5-point underdog to a 6.5-point underdog.
(As always, click to enlarge.)
How the Vegas lines Matrix compares to the actual Vegas lines
Probabilities Matrix
We can use these odds from the above color-coded Vegas lines matrix to impute the implied probability of winning in these matchups. These probabilities are calculated using thousands of prior games. For example, let’s consider the actual Auburn at Ole Miss spread, where Auburn is a 7-point road favorite. In the past 10 years (the period my data covers) there have been 149 games where the home team was an underdog by exactly 7 points. In these 149 games, the home team won 44 and lost 105, for an implied win probability of 30.7 percent. If the line moves “down” to +6 points, historically we observe: 77 games, 22 wins for a win percentage of 33.3 percent. If the line moves a point in favor of the Tigers to +8, we see: 56 games, 11 wins for a win percentage of 28.0 percent.
By populating the above matchup matrix with these probabilities, we can “simulate” the remainder of the season and calculate such things as a team’s expected record or probability of going undefeated. Note that the probabilities actually displayed here are a 3-line moving average, so a 7-point road favorite would use all of the games mentioned above (lines at +6.5, +7, +7.5) to calculate a weighted average to smooth out inconsistencies from occasionally sparse data at certain line values.
As with the above matrix above, the values are color coded relative to the home team’s chances of winning. The greener the cell, the more likely the home team is to win.
Auburn’s win last week over LSU was big. Despite a few fortunate dropped passes by LSU that would have made the game much closer, Auburn managed to largely shut down LSU and racked up an impressive total yards margin (526-243). As good as Auburn looked last week, future SEC foes Georgia and Alabama may have looked even better. Even Ole Miss, who lost 38-24 last weekend at Arkansas managed to outgain the Hogs 512-464. The Rebel Black Bear Akbars will not be a pushover this week, and Auburn needs to avoid a letdown game to stay in the title hunt.
As predicted last week, Auburn’s win and ensuing strength of schedule vaulted them past Boise State thanks to a large jump in the computer polls. For more information on Auburn’s chances of finishing the year undefeated, check out this week’s BCS Simulator Stimulator column.
Auburn has a 14.5 percent chance of winning out and going undefeated prior to the SEC title game, up from 12.7 percent last week. However, Alabama has a 26.4 percent chance of going undefeated in its remaining schedule, up from 21.5 percent last week.
Predicted Final Standings
Following a win in the Tiger Bowl, Auburn is the clear front-runner in the SEC West. Alabama has two tricky games remaining this season: at LSU and the Iron Bowl. They will likely need to win both of these to make the trip to Atlanta, but don’t dismiss this as a very real possibility. Mississippi State’s win over UAB last weekend makes the Bulldogs bowl eligible. After losing to the Razorbacks last week, Ole Miss will need at least one upset if the Rebels are going to become bowl eligible.
In the SEC East (which is now 2-11 against the SEC West), South Carolina still looks like the team to beat, rebounding with a rare road win last weekend against Vanderbilt. Georgia (4-4) looks like it has turned the season around, but the real test comes this weekend in Jacksonville against the Gators. A win against Florida this weekend and a bye (Idaho State) next week could see a red-hot Georgia team coming to the Plains for the Deep South’s oldest rivalry on Nov. 13. As predicted almost a month ago, the loser of Vanderbilt and Tennessee will lock up a last place finish on Nov. 20 in the Cellar Bowl.
Mac Mirabile is a 2002 graduate of Auburn’s economics and journalism departments. During his time at Auburn, he was a copy and photo editor with The Auburn Plainsman. He has a master’s in economics from UNC-Chapel Hill and has written numerous academic publications on college football, the NFL, and gambling markets. His previous column can be found here. He can be reached at [email protected].
I don’t understand why your model still loves Bama so much. They are 6.5 point favorites against us at home while we would only be a 4.5 favorite at home? Also, I have heard from many places that they have the toughest final 4 games in the country, yet they have a much higher chance of winning out than we do. Just curious…thanks.
RW,
The biggest difference between the two comes in the Iron Bowl. It appears that the matrix regards [email protected] and [email protected] to be roughly equal (both have about a 83% chance of winning). Both the Chatt game and the Georgia St games are being regarded as virtually certain wins. But in the other game, Auburn has a sizable advantage. Auburn has an 84% chance of winning while the LSU/Bama game is virtually a toss up. But the difference maker is that the Matrix regards Alabama as being twice as likely to win out. If Bama beats LSU next week, look for the Matrix to have Bama with about a 57% chance of winning out while Auburn still only has a 27% chance. As long as it sees Bama as twice as likely to win the Iron Bowl, there will be a huge difference in out probability to win out. Also, as would be expected, this Matrix is definitely undervaluing the current UGA team so I would put our percentages right now closer to 10% then to 15.
Got a bit of a problem with AU’s probability of winning out vs the rest of the SEC. I’m coming up with a 22% chance of us winning out using our chance to win each game. The 14.5% represents the SEC championship game as well the best I can tell. Not wrong, just not an apples to apples comparison.
WD,
You’re actually right. For Alabama, its only taking the last four games into account and is coming up with 26% which is what I get too. But for Auburn, it has a 14.5 but I am also coming up with a 22% chance and the article even says “Auburn has a 14.5 percent chance of winning out and going undefeated prior to the SEC title game”. Don’t know why that is.
All, sorry about that. You’re absolutely correct, should be 22% for Auburn, for some reason that cell didn’t get updated correctly. War Damn Excel Errors!
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