TWER‘s Weekend Viewing Guide

Saturday

All the good games this week are on at the same time, 2:30, and it looks like a terribly boring week for college football fans.  That probably means there will be upsets galore.

South Carolina @ Arkansas
Hogs favored by 7 (up from 4.5)
Saturday 11:21 CT on Fox

The Hogs are a favored pretty big considering they are playing arguably the 4th best team in the conference.  If you think it’s crazy to call the Cocks the 4th best team, go ahead and name that 4th best team.  Auburn @ 6-3 is your only argument, but SC has played the two best teams in the conference and Auburn hasn’t.

Here’s an SEC power Poll with each team’s record overall and record in the SEC:

Team  W/L SEC

1. Alabama 8-0 5-0
2. Florida 8-0 6-0
3. LSU  7-1 4-1
4. SC  6-3 3-3
5. Auburn 6-3 3-3
6. Ole Miss 5-3 2-3
7. UT  4-4 2-3
8. UGA  4-4 3-3
9. UK  4-4 1-4
10. Arkansas 4-4 1-4
11. Miss. St. 4-5 2-3
12. Vandy  2-7 0-5

Arkansas is on a big downswing after an exciting win over Auburn and a heartbreaker to UF (*cough* refs *cough*).  So can the Hogs get back on their feet this week?  They looked bad two weeks ago against Ole Miss. Then they blew out Eastern Michigan.  Ryan Hammer will show the gamecocks something they haven’t seen yet this year: an accurate QB.  On the flipside Arkansas’ pass defense is awful, but can Stephen Garcia take advantage?  SC has not looked good the last few weeks. They couldn’t take advantage of their opportunities against Bama and they let Tennessee control the game.  I like the Hogs in a shootou,t 42-38.

LSU @ Alabama
Bama favored by 7.5 (down from 10)
Saturday 2:30 CT on CBS

The Alabama train got derailed in the last few games and they haven’t looked like the monster we thought they were. The perfect fix was the bye week.  LSU hasn’t lost in Tuscaloosa in 10 years and a pedestrian 7-5 team lost to Bama last year in OT. So history says this will be a close game.  But looking closer at LSU’s defense, you start to see the chinks, like that run defens. What does Alabama have to do to win any game?  That’s right, run the ball with those three tailbacks and keep McElroy from screwing it up.  LSU’s secondary is fast and that could hurt Alabama if they try to get cute with some play action.  The smart money likes LSU, but I don’t. Bama wins, 19-14.

Ohio State @ Penn State
Nittany Lions by 4 and holding
Saturday 2:30 CT on ABC

Have we ever heard less about a #11 team?  Penn State is hiding under the radar and have coasted to an 8-1 record and the #1 offense in the Big Ten.  Other than the Iowa game Darryl Clark has looked fantastic.  Ohio State will be without their kicker which could hurt them in what may be a tight defensive game.  The Buckeyes D is stout and Terrelle Cryer looked great against the Lions last year.  Going back home for the first time in his career could fire him up and channel some mojo, but I doubt it.  Nittany Lions win, 16-14

Oregon @ Stanford
Ducks favored by 7 (open at 5.5)
Saturday 2:30 CT on Fox Sports South (Channel 33 in God’s country)

All the talk about the Duck offense is disrespectful to how good their defense is.  They’re no Florida, they’re no Alabama, but they are pretty darn good for a Pac-10 team and do a good job of giving their offense a short field.  Stanford’s QB Andrew Luck is the #1 passing efficiency in the Pac-10, and he gets to hand off to a 235 lb. tailback in Toby Gerhart who is the #9 back in the country yardage wise (but getting 20+ carries every week).  Because both teams plan to run the ball this could be a short, low scoring game, which is just the way Stanford needs it.  The Tree could catch Oregon sleeping, but I doubt it.  Oregon 30-21.

Oklahoma @ Nebraska
Sooners by 4 (down from 6.5)
Saturday 7:00 CT on ABC

Nebraska lost to frickin Iowa State. In Lincoln.  That should be all you need to know, but the Huskers turned the ball over an astounding 8 times in that game.  Statistically, Bo Pelini has the D ranked near the top in every category and they could really hurt the OU offense that likes to turn the ball over.  Ndomination Suh will disrupt the offensive line and make Landry Jones look like the freshman he is.  This could be a very low scoring affair barring any defensive TDs, I like the Huskers to hold strong at home, 10-7.