The question before the season was: Is Auburn any good?
Unless you’re wearing a set of crimson X-ray specs that allow the wearer to see a future 9- or 10-win West Virginia team and a spirited Tennessee squad as members of the Sun Belt, the 5-0 start answered that question. Yes, Auburn is at least some good.
The next question was: How good are they?
Before we answer that, consider–again–the hurdles Auburn had to clear to win yesterday’s game:
1. The Hogs regressing to their mean. Though that harlot Hope made me think otherwise in the run-up, the Hogs were never going to stay as bad on defense as they had been against Georgia and Alabama. No SEC defense outside of Nashville is ever that bad. Likewise, Ryan Mallett and his receivers were never going to be as shaky as they were in Tuscaloosa. A running back as talented as Michael Smith and a tight end as talented as D.J. Williams weren’t going to bottled up all year.
In short: Arkansas was due for their best performance of the season, and they provided it.
2. Auburn regressing to their mean. We’ve all marveled at the defense’s knack for the big play, the line’s pass protection, Chris Todd’s leadership and accuracy, the entire team’s (save the punt return) ability to avoid the killer mistake. In those first five games, aside from those handful of shaky moments vs. Miss. St. and the first quarter vs. WVU, Auburn has played very well.
Auburn was not going to play very well all season. It’s like Wes Byrum’s miss against Tennessee: we know he can hit 40-plus yard field goals, but we know he won’t hit them all. We knew that Auburn wasn’t going to go 12 games straight–and, in retrospect, probably not even six games straight–without having some sort of substantial letdown.
3. The kickoff. Rob Pate, someone who would know, had these prescient words about the importance of the time of kickoff:
First morning game. Totally different atmosphere and feeling running out to play a football game in the AM vs PM. Even worse on the road. The entire itinerary is turned on its head. Wake up call will come around 5:30. Meetings are abbreviated, and even the pregame meal is altered. Then, in the second half of the game, you’re hungry because you haven’t eaten since 7:00 am (and no one feels like eating much of anything a few hours before you lay your guts on the line in an SEC battle). But you force-feed yourself because if you don’t eat you won’t have the energy to make it through the game. I bet we haven’t practiced in the AM since preseason camp. This will be our largest obstacle this week, even greater than who we’re playing.
I don’t think it’s coincidence Auburn was a horrorshow in the first half and “won” the second 20-17.
4. Being on the road. I don’t think I have to explain this.
5. The motivation difference. Bobby Petrino his own self called this a “must-win” for Arkansas, because that’s what it was. Gene Chizik just could not say the same thing and be honest. I think we all know this matters, and matters a lot.
This list is not meant as a catalog of excuses. It is a list of hurdles, the things Auburn would have had to overcome to earn a victory yesterday. To overcome them all would have required a very good team, possibly even a championship-caliber team.
And so we have our answer to How good are they?: Auburn isn’t quite that good. Auburn isn’t championship caliber.
It’s not exactly a revelation, is it? More like a confirmation, and anyone who’s terribly upset to find this out needs some sort of crash-course reminder on what happened just one season ago. All of Auburn’s realistic preseason goals–and even some unrealistic ones, like playing on New Year’s Day–are as reachable as ever.
So our Tigers didn’t clear their hurdles yesterday. It’s OK. They won’t be that high every week.
Other assorted observations
— I’m tempted to devote an an entire post to this, but since I’ve already given this sickly-looking horse a flogging once, I’ll keep it here and keep it brief: the defense was not that bad. The stats are ugly, I know: 44 points, 495 yards, 6 yards a play, just the one turnover and the one sack. The 95-yard touchdown drive following the Tate fumble was a particular lowlight.
But Auburn’s offense and special teams could not possibly have put them under more pressure. Arkansas started five different drives in Auburn territory. The offense didn’t have a drive lasting longer than 2:42 the entire game, with their first five “possessions” running 1:17, 1:35, 1:57, :45 and :08 off the clock. And make no mistake, Mallet and Co. were on their game–if their quarterback is going to drop passes perfectly into his receiver’s hands the way Mallett did a half-dozen times, you just have to tip your hat to them and move on.
Remember, too, that Arkansas had 14 legitimate possessions in this game–by contrast, Florida and LSU had 7 and 8, respectively. Given the avalanche of circumstances conspiring against them and what we all know is a crippling lack of depth with which to respond to those circumstances, I’m borderline happy with the way the defense played.
— So I had this really funny bit already written where I tried to convince Michael Smith that he needed to declare early for the NFL Draft, because I thought he was a junior, and now I see he’s a senior, and that of kind of just made my day. I wish him the best of luck, but I am also delighted to never see him in a Hog uniform opposite Auburn again.
— We have a Quindarius Carr sighting, while Benton and Blake each still wait for their first reception of the season. Safe to say we all might have been just a little over-the-top in our projections for those two.
— If we ever needed an illustration of exactly how critical that first first down of a drive is for Auburn, we got it yesterday. Personally, I’d have been fine without it.
— There’s a lot more in yesterday’s postgame wrap.
Three Stars
Ben Tate. Currently the nation’s No. 6 rusher, and averaging–how?–6.1 yards a carry.
Craig Stevens. 12 more tackles, nine of them solo, for what I think is the defense’s steadiest–if not flashiest–performer.
Uh … Terell Zachery? Huge play on the reverse, two catches for 25 yards, and of course getting himself open on the shoulda-been first-quarter touchdown bomb that Chris Todd had better have seen in his sleep last night. It’s not a lot, but not many Tigers shone all that brightly yesterday.
Three areas for improvement
Chris Todd. Just too many missed opportunities. Not as much help from his receivers or his line as in previous games, sure, but 4.6 yards-an-attempt is way short of providing the kind of balance Auburn needs to make this thing work. Fumbling the snap on a 4th-and-an-inch QB sneak wasn’t a high point, either.
The non-Coleman portions of the defensive line. Well, Coleman too. Our All-SEC defensive end didn’t have a tackle or even a QB hurry yesterday, which is disappointing no matter how you slice it. But he was also regularly double-teamed and schemed around, and the other members of the defensive line did next-to-nothing to make Arkansas pay for it. Michael Goggans had a half-tackle-for-loss, one QB hurry, and no sacks, bringing him up to all of 2.5 TFLs, 3 QBHs, and 1 sack for the year. Not enough. Jake Ricks collected one tackle and nothing else. Dee Ford continued to look dangerous coming around the edge but then not having much production to show for it (though he’s kind of excused, what with being a true freshman and all). Until someone outside the Mike Blanc/Nick Fairley platoon gives opponents any reason to worry about them up front, Coleman’s going to continue to get stoned.
Kickoff return. I’m not all that upset at Boulware, since everything else is working OK (Fannin’s fumble is hardly his fault) and he has so precious little to work with. But it’s just killing Auburn right now.
Your bottom line
Assuming Todd can get his West Virginia-grade act back together, this is still the same team that got us all hot and bothered those first five weeks. And if the depth problems are only going to get worse as Auburn plugs along, I also only see one game right now (that last one, unfortunately) that doesn’t at least fall under the category of “winnable.” We’ve seen unbeaten Auburn teams get flattened by an underrated bunch of Hogs and get off the mat before, haven’t we?
It’s possible yesterday was some kind of foreboding omen for a lackluster second half of the year–we’ll find out with how Auburn responds against Kentucky–but it’s my suspicion that when all is said and done, it’s going to be a bump in the road on the way to a perfectly satisfying season, and not much else.
Photo via.
Yours is more balanced appraisal than I’ve seen from some of the state press. AU was never going to win them all..and Ark showed some life last week before AU got to town. Tenn might have been better than anyone gave them credit for, etc, etc. The defense will be a problem all year…youth, inexperience, depth are all working against them and screaming to get rid of Roof already makes no sense. This is definitely a rebuilding year and big wins against Tenn and WV should be appreciated….because there will be losses too.
Auburn still looks like the 8-4 team (possibly 9-3) I predicted they’d be. This team is gonna have trouble beating Bama and LSU, but I still believe Ole’ Miss and UGA will go down.
7-5…………..my predicti
stays the same!
Jerry,
Totally agree with all your assessments. I just wanted to blow off some steam about the game TV broadcast. I know in one of your previous posts (http://www.thewareaglereader.com/2009/10/plainslinks-joins-the-big-10-for-a-day/)you had sang the praises of the Big 10-oriented ESPN crew, but honestly they REALLY got on my nerves. Would they have as badly if we had won….maybe…maybe not, but all I can say is I hope that Pausch fellow goes back to the Big 10 broadcasts and never shows his face at an Auburn game!
DWWD!
Great win for Arkansas. Hard to believe it is their first home SEC win under Petrino. I have been an Auburn fan all my life (40 years) and one thing I do know is that no matter who is coaching, Auburn does much better when nothing is expected of them and the reverse is true also. We were due for a bad game and also had a lot going against us (away game, early kickoff, McCaleb is still not 100%). Not making excuses because the Tigers have already won as many games as I thought they would the entire season but still disappointed. The Tate fumble inside the 5 yard line that resulted in another Arkansas score and thus a 14 point swing really hurt. The hogs showed a lot of character with the long kick off return to stop momentum in 4th qtr. Kudos to Petrino and the hogs on a great home win. I wish both teams continued success for 2009. Great website. Keep up the good work Steven.
thanks for the optimism jerry… made me feel better.
Clinstew7
I agree with you. I’m still confused…did Mallet used to park cars at Michigan and used to play for Arkansas or was it the other way around? They should have mentioned those facts five or six more times so it would have stuck in my head.
Good post. – Auburn is a good team and will be very hard to beat every year… Things just seemed to go in Arkansas’ favor all day…
I’m a big Gus fan and WAS a tuberville (spelling) fan so I’ve been rooting for Auburn for a whle now. As long as they aren’t playing Arkansas…
I haven’t watched the game on TV yet, so I don’t know what all ESPN said. But I really hate ESPN’s broadcast… I said some of the exact same things when watching the Georgia/Arkansas game… It was Joe Cox this and Joe Cox that, when Mallett shattered 2 Arkansas records… Georgia won, but still, nothing said at all about Arkansas… Even the halftime show was horrible… Nothing to say about the game at all… I think they went to nascar news or something… But yeah, ESPN sucks…
Thanks for the post. A few thoughts to add to this:
1) Games that start before noon have generally been disasters for Auburn over the past few years, especially those in the conference. This one brought back memories of the 2006 Arkansas & Georgia games, the ’07 Miss. State game, and the games last year against Georgia and Ole Miss. Not only that, most of the worst losses that Tuberville had at Auburn occurred in this time spot (especially after 2004). Again, that was the case Saturday–a sluggish 1st half put the team in a deep hole. (In an ideal world, they would use that early time spot for games in Eastern Time where it is early afternoon and not schedule the Central time schools before noon.)
2) Thanks for the thoughts on the defense. I think Roof and crew will bring it around. A number of players on the unit are under their 2nd or 3rd coordinator at this point, each change that has reshaped it. That is an are where we need to be patient–the way the game went yesterday did not help. Now in terms of fundamentals, they do need to work on open field tackling.
When your’re snakebit, you’re snakebit. And we were yesterday. Hope we get a fresh start next week.
Jerry writes a scathing article about an Auburn player? The Auburn Tigers get there doors blown off.
Correlation? Maybe. Coincidence? I THINK NOT!
(P.S. Joking.
Good, balanced perspective. Of course, it’s still all up in the air. That we are this far along and still have everything ahead of us is good news. In the depths of despair, at the end of the 2008 season, I would have been very happy, to be where we are now.
We are probably going to lose some more this season…let’s just hope that it’s a few. But I do like the direction Auburn is headed…at this moment. As a team, we have been punching above the talent of most members of our squad. That’s the Auburn way…it doesn’t always win games, but it sure as hell feels good when it does.
So, let’s just take the bad with the good this season…we don’t yet know how it’s going to play out…we never do until it’s over. But we have a lot more reasons to hope it will turn out OK than we do to give up on these coaches and this team.
Let’s just have some faith that they are far harder on themselves than we are at this point. It’s certainly true.
tiger7, don’t worry, I’m not taking any chances going forward.
clint, I thought Spielman was fine, but I’ve heard Pasch and especially Griese do much, much better. Griese fumbling for a good 3-4 seconds with the name of the team Auburn was playing before finally sputtering “Arizona” was kind of shocking. He’s been doing ABC afternoon games the last couple of years that usually conflict with CBS SEC broadcasts, and when I’ve heard him I thought he was still pretty much on his game … but maybe I’ve missed moments like that one and that’s why he’s been demoted to the 11 a.m. slot?
Tiger4125, I thought about that when they mentioned that Arkansas had never hosted an 11 a.m. kickoff before. The SEC couldn’t strong-arm the WWL into at least pushing every Central game to the traditional JP/Lincoln/Raycom 11:30?
rc, “It doesn’t always win games, but it sure as hell feels good when it does”–This.
Thanks to everyone for their comments.
I will say this…when you get to thinking about it, Arkansas is the perfect trap game for Tebow and Co. this year. ARKY heads to The Swamp after the big hyped-up FL victory over an LSU squad that was still living on the last several years’ reputation and Les Miles’ dumb luck. GA had them beat, MS ST had them beat, etc. and they were still ranked 4th in the Nation.
Accordingly, the big hype game was LSU. Tebow had to be brought out at game time to play so they could win and NEITHER TEAM looked that good. And now the conquering heros go home to rest on their laurels and play HOMECOMING against Arkansas. FL will have the big-head and if Goliath Mallet and Co. are half-way as accurate as they were against AU, FL may have a big surprise coming. I have no idea what the line will be or is but I believe Ark. has a chance to win it outright. If they take the same officiating crew, it’s a done deal…
trying to see the good through all the bad…..i am glad all these boys had their first really bad game together. maybe they went ahead and got it out of the way. no one played exceptionally well though there were flashes of what we were becoming use to. hopefully this shocked them enough to get back focused and ready to take the level back up, despite the depth issues. Just gotta keep on working and scratchin and clawin….whatever it takes.
MDO, i agree about the ark v fl game. if ark comes out clickin on offense like they did saturday, it might be a long day for the gators. their offense has not been near as explosive as last year and might not be able to recover from a quick deficit. we shall see.
Time of possession is always going to be an issue with the no-huddle; three-six play drives are even shorter when using it. When it’s humming, it’s great. When it struggles on consecutive drives or several series in a row, it becomes quite the Albatross for the defense.
On the early start time: Why does this always seem to present a problem for Auburn BUT NOT the other team? It does not seem to matter whether AU is home, away, or playing on an aircraft carrier in the Indian Ocean; Auburn has a terrible history of sleep walking through these games and Arkansas is a (or the most) frequent beneficiary of it. I had hoped that it was a Tubby thing (although I can remember a horrendous home loss to Ark when Chiz was D coord involving yet another diminutive running back). Alas, it is apparently not an Auburn coaching problem, but an altogether Auburn problem.
Whatever the explanation for this really is, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do not offer it as an excuse. I have it on reliable authority that the other team has to wake up, eat their pregame meals, and put on their ballroom shoes at the same time.
Commish, you’re certainly right about it affecting both teams, but I have to think the effect is worse on the road AND Arkansas at least had one afternoon game. It’s not as big a deal as just the facts that one team was due for a good performance and the other was due for a worse one, but I do think it affected Auburn more adversely than the Hogs.
i don’t know if u watched the auburn football review or not but i just have to say Chizik’s postgame talk made me feel like it was my fault we lost… i got that pit in my stomach that you get when you are getting chewed out for doing something wrong and you know you did something wrong… i hope it motivates… also, i hope all the skill players have to tote footballs around all week after that fumble-fest… i think our defense should be better than it is; i know chizik’s style used to be “bend dont break” and i’m good with that, but it just seems like he havent been as staunch as we should be. The DBs seem a little out of it sometimes, and the LBs seem out of position more than they should be. I’m no coach, but that’s just my take on it. I know Roof is a good coach, and that our depth on D is shaky; it just seems like something isn’t meshing there yet.
I hate listening to Chris Spielman. The rest of the guys don’t bother me, but he is an idiot. I have never ever liked listening to him; thankfully most of the time he does MAC and Big Ten games. I wish it would stay that way.
one more thing. i think Mallet will be a good, productive, strong armed QB, but it irks me when people call him accurate. I just don’t see it. He is way off on a bunch of throws. But if he continues to get better under Petrino I think he’ll be a first day, if not first round pick. He is waaay better than Snead in my opinion and Kiper had him ranked in the top 3 NFL QB prospects before the season started.
I agree with Commish. Blaming a bad performance, even partially, on the kick off time is a cop out. I can see how going from five straight 7pm games to a 11am road game could be troublesome but come on, we knew it was coming a week out.
Crowson, I would agree LBs probably get stretched out from where they should be. The players know as well as we do that we’ve got two really solid guys and one guy–as hard as he’s playing and as much as I respect him–who’s going to need some help out there. Hard to keep perfect shape in that situation, I would think.
Harrison, I wouldn’t put all the blame on the kickoff time-there are five hurdles listed up there, and it’s just one of them, and I personally wouldn’t call it the most important one. But when a guy like Pate who actually lived through four years’ worth of game days tells me it’s a legitimate factor, I’m inclined to take him at his word.