You know you miss him.

We’re all set to start around 7 a.m. CST. Whatever you do, do not visit the live blog of the official Auburn athletic site. We have it on good authority it is actually a phishing scheme organized and masterminded by “bammers.” Also, that’s where the unclean masses will be hanging all day. This Live Blog is like that cool Cuban restaurant behind what used to be Walmart that doesn’t have a sign. We’re hip. We’re relatively young. We don’t know anyone’s name. It’ll be fun, probably.

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Blue Chip recruits, indeed...

Mannnnn, here we are again. It’s almost that day. Get out your dry erase board. Wash the spit out of your whistle. Jog in place for 15 seconds to get limber. Put on your lucky sweat pants, crank that De La Soul, stash that cash, grab a sack of ‘Flake, and sneak some whiskey into your coffee.

Time to get recruiting! Auburn needs us!

It’s the Return of the Return of the Recruiting LiveBlog!

When: Wednesday Feb. 1 at or around 8 a.m. CST (barring technical difficulties and Ben not sleeping in).

Where: Another TWER post, TBA.

Why: Because we’re all hopeless addicts and we need this to give meaning to our days.

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In what direction did you want Auburn’s offense to go after Gus Malzahn? Where is it likely headed with Scot Loeffler? (And does that Illinois fullback have anything to do with it?) 

I’ll answer the second question first: yes, we’re getting something that Jay Prosch is going to feel at home in, that’s going to try to smash people up front and milk clock and make things easy on the defense, something most people would label “pro-style.”

I’m hopeful that Loeffler’s time spent under Urban Meyer means we might see some (effective) spread concepts tossed into the mix, a la what our old buddy Al Borges did for Denard Robinson and the rest of Michigan’s spread leftovers, but … well, look, we know why Loeffler was on the shortlist, right? Temple ran four times more often than they threw this past season, and they did a damn good job of it. Remember when Chizik said at his introductory press conference that his offensive philosophy was “200 years old”? He was able to ignore that philosophy as long as Malzahn’s was helping him get the job and winning games; in midseason 2011, we saw that once the wheels started coming off, that philosophy was back with a vengeance. I doubt Loeffler’s going to run anything quite as HULK SMASH as his lone year at Temple or Tubbyball at its Tubbiest, but between the Prosch transfer and Loeffler’s “protect the defense and special teams” presser quotes, it’s clear Chizik wants to give the Crimson Tides and Bayou Bengals a run for their smash-mouth money.

Full disclosure: this wasn’t what I wanted. I wanted a spread guy, specifically either Blake Anderson or — assuming our offer of a Malzahn-style giant pot of gold wouldn’t have been matched by the Ducks’ own giant pot of gold, a big if — Oregon’s Mark Helfrich. For two reasons:

1. The spread is the best fit for our current personnel. Our best quarterback prospect is a spread quarterback, Our running backs are spread running backs. (Two of them — Blakely and Grant — specifically abandoned their previous programs because they were spread running backs.) Our tight ends are spread tight ends. (Does anyone think putting Phillip Lutzenkirchen or C.J. Uzomah in a three-point stance and asking them to drive block some monster SEC defensive end seems like the best use of their talents?) Many of our wide receivers –including our best one — are, by nature, spread wide receivers.

That’s a lot of spread dudes for a pro-style guy to inherit. It hardly dooms such a guy to failure, but all things being equal, the less awkward the transition the better.

2. Unless Texas A&M and Missouri spawn some wild spreadvolution — best of luck, gents — the SEC is a pro-style league. Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Arkansas (though the Hogs are obviously more pass-happy), South Carolina, now Florida … not one of them run the offense Auburn ran under Malzahn, or anything remotely similar. There were certain recruits this hurt Auburn with, but there were also plenty — like Blake, like Frazier, like Mason — for who it was a major selling point. When trying to sell the program head-to-head against an Alabama, a Georgia, or a Florida, I liked that Auburn was selling something different than those guys were, and I liked that you couldn’t prepare for Auburn’s offense at the same time you prepared for the Tide or Dawgs or Gamecocks. It’s certainly possible for Auburn to beat Alabama at something like “its own game,” but me, I’d have rather just stuck to our own.

But the bottom line is that that’s all that is–personal preference. The important thing isn’t what system Loeffler runs, it’s that he knows how to run it. With the potential exception of quarterback, if Loeffler legitimately knows what he’s doing, Auburn will be productive no matter whether their personnel is “spread” or not. And where recruiting is concerned, system is always going to be secondary to selling Auburn, Auburn’s program, and Auburn’s coaches. As long as Loeffler is a good coach — and we all have plenty of reason to think he is — the systemic stuff will work itself out.

(A side note: I also wonder if Brian VanGorder would have bitten — or even glanced twice at the bait — knowing that his defense would have to deal with the issues that come playing opposite a Malzahn-type offense. The schematic shift isn’t just offensively, it’s team-wide–and if that was the price of hiring a coordinator on either side as outstanding VanGorder, Chizik’s decision wasn’t ever a decision at all.)

Chizik said in Loeffler’s introductory press conference that he doesn’t know what “spread” and “pro” mean anymore. Do they mean anything anymore?

My guess here is that Chizik was trying to avoid acknowledging the transitional growing pains that come with hiring a coordinator who’s planning on doing something exTREMEly different from what his last coordinator did (or, in 2011, tried to do). But of course they mean something–if you were watching the Fiesta Bowl and wanted to express the difference in Oklahoma State’s offense and Stanford’s in the simplest possible terms, what the hell esle would you use? And the last three years, Auburn’s offense has looked much more like the Cowboys; given Loeffler’s background, I’ll be stunned if in 2012 it doesn’t look more like the Cardinal’s. (This is not to say Loeffler’s got plans to go jumbo an entire game or anything; Coby Fleeners don’t grow on trees, or the Auburn depth chart.)

That’s not to say the terms aren’t deeply flawed; it’s odd to say that offenses as different as Alabama’s and Drew Brees’s New Orleans Saints are both pro-style, or that RichRod’s West Virginia option teams and Houston’s Case Keenum carnival are both spreads. But as different as they are, those Houston teams still have more in common with WVU’s glory teams in terms of personnel and philosophy than they do the Saints, Alabama more in common with Brees’s crew than RichRod’s. As clear, accurate, detailed terms, no, they don’t mean a lot. As functional shorthand? Or, put another way, as an easy way to express the transition Auburn will go through going from Malzahn to Loeffler? They’re fine.

Chizik is regularly praised for his knack for “great hires,” Brian VanGorder being the latest example. How much does VanGorder’s simply being “an NFL guy” play into the perception that he’s a “great hire?” Is Scot Loeffler a “great hire?”

VanGorder is a legitimate smash hire, one probably on par with Malzahn’s. But that’s for reasons that I don’t think had that much to do with his NFL employment or even NFL success; BVG coached some truly fantastic defenses at Georgia, one of which helped get the Dawgs within one ill-timed loss of a national title. Even in the David Greene heyday, Richt’s best teams were defined more by their D than their O, and VanGorder was the guy who was building those D’s. If 2009 and 2010 Auburn were teams constructed around Malzahn and what he could with an offense, 2012 and forward are going to be the same for VanGorder.

This is another reason I’m not sweating Loeffler’s hire, despite being opposed on a theoretical level; with BVG in the fold, the Auburn offense likely won’t have to set the world on fire to win games. Is he a “great hire”? He’s nowhere near proven enough as a play-caller for that, and there’s no way you’ll convince me Chizik wasn’t eyeing some NFL guy or another when Loeffler could have been brought on board weeks earlier. But given his age and resume, Chizik could have done far worse. It was still barely more than 12 months ago Auburn won a national title with Ted Roof as one of its coordinators–I’m pretty sure the Tigers haven’t ruled themselves out of another simply by hiring one of college football’s most respected up-and-coming offensive coaches.

Get your daily Jerry fix here. And your #teamloeffler shirt here. Send questions for Jerry to mail@thewareaglereader.com.

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Congrats, KG.

Monday night against Bethune-Cookman, Auburn played the best basketball game it’s played all year.

And no, that’s not a lame New Year’s joke. The 67-41 win at home was truly the most complete and well-rounded game that Auburn has put together this season.

Obviously the big news of the night came with Kenny Gabriel recording the first triple-double in Auburn basketball history, blocking 10 shots and bringing down 13 boards to go along with his 24 points. It’s a tremendous accomplishment all on its own, something that years has never been done in 106 years. But, perhaps best of all, it’s something that couldn’t have happened to a better member of this team. Regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, the senior has cemented his legacy at Auburn as a team leader of the first group that took the floor in the new Auburn Arena, and as someone who stuck through coaching changes and hard times and continued to lay it all out there for his school — and now, fittingly, he’ll be forever etched into the record books.

The rest of the Auburn Tigers played a very balanced and complete game on Monday night as well. Frankie Sullivan continued his consistent play with a 9-point and 5-rebound performance, and continues to be a dependable anchor for Auburn on both ends of the floor, even on his off nights. Varez Ward dished 10 assists and laid down a textbook point guard performance, despite not scoring a point all game. And Chris Denson finished with 10 points off the bench, where he’ll likely continue to play, providing a spark for Auburn as the Tigers’ sixth man.

Meanwhile, Noel Johnson played cleanly in his first start of the season, and for the first time this year Auburn fans got a taste of the starting lineup they were picturing all of last season, when they watched Sullivan, Johnson, and Ward sit on the end of the bench in warm-ups, out due to injury, or NCAA transfer rules, or, in Ward’s case, both.

In the end, the Tigers played the excellent lock-down defense that their coach preaches, they found ways to score with consistency on offense, and their big-time players all played within themselves and fulfilled their individual roles. Again: Auburn played some of the best basketball that is has played all season, and it couldn’t have picked a much better time to start playing strong.

It comes at a surprising time, after the Tigers looked to have only taken several steps back a game ago in its narrow 78-75 escape against Georgia Southern. Tony Barbee laid it into his team then that they had a long way to go before conference play began. It was a wonder then if the team was going to be as prepared as possible before their SEC opening at Vanderbilt on Saturday. One win against Bethune-Cookman at home isn’t going to change much, but at least the Tigers have seen what they’re capable of here in January, and after having not won anything convincingly since before the Hawaii trip, it’s nice too that they won’t carry a drought into conference play.

Instead, Auburn is 10-3, undefeated at home, and that’s how their season will stand when they take on Florida State in Tallahassee tonight in the Tigers’ final non-conference game of the season.

Auburn has had the Seminoles circled as one of its hardest non-conference tests. Auburn’s schedule has been very kind, and while a solid win/loss record and that invaluable experience is great in developing a culture of winning, Auburn hasn’t had too many chances to test their mettle against big-time foes this season. Auburn’s inexperience was likely evident in it’s lost to Long Beach State in Hawaii, as the battle-tested 49ers, who played one of the nation’s toughest out-of-conference schedules, seemed more prepared to play—and win—in the spotlight than Auburn did.

When all is said and done, tonight’s contest could prove very pivotal in telling just how successful the first half of this season has been. Auburn has proven themselves at home, posting a 9-0 record in Auburn Arena, with consistent wins coming against teams the Tigers were in position to beat, and with a quality victory over South Florida out of the Big East. Auburn’s loss in its first road game of the season at Seton Hall (who just knocked off No. 8 UConn) was no surprise, and neither was its holiday tournament loss to Long Beach State. However, the biggest disappointment of the season thus far has to have been Auburn’s loss to UTEP in that same tournament’s consolation game.

But Auburn has a chance ahead of them to hold their head just as high as they could have had they returned from Hawaii as the conquering, 2 out of 3 heroes by offing the Seminoles tonight on the road. They were able to beat Florida State a year ago at home in one of their most memorable games last season, behind a spirited (albeit temporary) return by Frankie Sullivan. The Seminoles will be ready to avenge that loss on their own home floor—although, this time around, they’re without last year’s star Chris Singleton.

It’s not a likely victory for Auburn just yet, but it’s a winnable game. And, suddenly, if Auburn is able to top Florida State tonight, they’ll be steamrolling into conference play at 11-3, and capping what would have to be considered one of the most successful non-conference seasons Auburn has had in years.

But if the Tigers fall in Tallahassee, they won’t have much time to dwell on the defeat before traveling to Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Regardless of how the schedule has played out for the Tigers thus far, January is here, and beginning with Florida State, the toughest tests on the schedule have arrived. Auburn’s SEC schedule begins this weekend, and the Tigers have one last chance to prove that they’re prepared for it. Vanderbilt and Kentucky are right around the corner, whether the Tigers are ready for them or not.

Photo via.

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"Money Badger": Ready to be the main man.

The Good Guys: There’s a big difference between finishing a season 8-5 and finishing it 7-6.

I don’t even have to tell you what a boost the Outback Bowl victory over Northwestern at the end of 2009 was in propelling the Tigers to a national championship run in 2010. Now Auburn enters the Chick-fil-A Bowl with the same 7-5 record at the end of the regular season as it had in 2009, and with that same “8-win season” or “6-loss season” swing hanging in the balance.

But this year, Auburn isn’t going to use the momentum from a bowl game to make any kind of run at a 2012 dream season, and is instead simply playing for damage control. This year, the joy of 8-5 is far outweighed by the agony of 7-6. And the agony of 7-6—which would set a new low for a team coming off a national championship in the BCS era—and losses in four of their last six games, is exactly what the Tigers are staring down going into this bowl game.

The 2011 campaign hasn’t been a complete and total failure for Auburn by any stretch of the imagination, but with all things considered, it hasn’t been that great of a success, either. Winning the Chick-fil-A Bowl isn’t going to magically solve any of the issues the Tigers will face this spring, but losing it is only going to pile onto those problems, and it’s something that Auburn needs to avoid.

In a rebuilding year in which Auburn didn’t appear to do too much rebuilding, and in going into an offseason having lost two coordinators and more, it would be nice for Auburn finish 2011 strong, and to come away from the season with something—anything—to show for it.

The Bad Guys: At this time a year ago, while the Auburn Tigers were preparing for the big dance in Glendale and a shot at college football’s national championship, the Virginia Cavaliers were at home, out of bowl eligibility, and sitting on a 4-8 record.

Things have changed.

While Auburn fell hard from their throne this year, Virginia began to make their climb. In finishing the regular season with a strong 8-4 record, and in picking up several quality wins (Georgia Tech, Florida State). Along the way the Cavaliers have made strong strides at getting their football program back on the right track.

The Cavaliers even made a run in the ACC this year, getting themselves in position for a de facto Coastal division championship game against Virginia Tech before falling to their in-state rival to close the season. In Mike London’s second year as head coach at Virginia, he appears to have the Cavaliers back as a competitive program once again and building toward a bright future.

But for now, what would be even sweeter for the Cavaliers than an 8-win season is a 9-win season, and another high-profile victory against tough competition.

When Virginia has the ball: The first thing you’ll notice about the Virginia offense is the amount of motion and movement they use with their backs and receivers before the snap.* The Cavaliers will shift their receivers, running backs, tight ends, and just about everyone they can, and they’ll do it before just about every play.

What that pre-snap motion does is create mismatch opportunities for the offense, and makes the defense adjust on the fly and forces them to make quick decisions. It puts the defense in a position to make a mistake. From there, the Virginia offense tries to capitalize. Sometimes they’ll mix everyone around just to keep the defense on its toes. Other times they’ll send one receiver across the formation and then get the ball to him quickly before the secondary can make the proper adjustments.

Virginia is quarterbacked by sophomore Michael Rocco. Rocco is a prototypical “game manager,” in every sense of the designation. Rocco likes to find his tough wide receivers underneath, and he’ll utilize his weapons from out of the back field, as well.

His favorite target by far is senior wide receiver Kris Burd. Burd is an effort, possession receiver for the Cavaliers. He’s their main man both in terms of receptions and receiving yards this year, despite having just one touchdown on the season.

But Virginia’s most dangerous weapon is junior running back Perry Jones. Jones is Virginia’s do-everything man: he’s the team’s leading rusher, he has the second-most receptions on the team coming out of the backfield, and he even returns punts. Jones has five touchdowns rushing on the season, with three more coming as a receiver. Jones and full back Max Milien, who has 20 receptions and two scores through the air, are almost just as dangerous in the passing game as they are in running the ball on the ground.

Meanwhile, Virginia’s answer to Kiehl Frazier is freshman quarterback David Watford. Much like Frazier, the Cavaliers will put Watford in as a change of pace and as a running threat, giving them a Wildcat look from time to time, but he’s efficient as a passer as well.

You would think after having practiced against Gus Malzahn and his bag of tricks over the last three years, Auburn’s defense would be ready to handle some of Virginia’s motioning and misdirection, but this is a different kind of deception. At its core, Virginia’s offense is a simple, ground-and-pound attack with a popular pro-style passing game, but there’s certainly enough bells and whistles to keep a defense on its heels. And with it being a bowl, there really isn’t any telling what Mike London and company will have up their sleeve. Auburn’s defense had better be on its toes, and its youthful secondary better be ready to communicate.

But if Auburn can play the kind of rushing defense that we saw from them midway through the season, then they have a good chance at slowing down this Cavalier offense. Virginia has also been prone to turnovers, so Auburn will hopefully have the chance to make the most of their mistakes.

The Auburn defense matches up fairly well against the Virginia offense, but on this side of the ball, the matchup is going to come down to the chess match going on underneath the helmets.

When Auburn has the ball: Auburn is going to have to find its identity on offense early in this game.

The Virginia defense is a physical group that grinds out the game and wears down an offense, so the Tigers are going to have to find some kind of consistency in moving the football.

Obviously, that all begins with the running game, and with Mike Dyer suspended, it all begins with Onterrio McCalebb and freshman Tre Mason.The challenge for whoever emerges as the featured back in this game will be in grinding out tough yards on early downs, and running the ball downhill between the tackles. Both McCalebb and Mason have proven their big-play ability, having both scored on kickoff returns for touchdowns this season, but against Virginia they’ll have to show that they’re capable of the tough runs on first and second down, as well.

Virginia’s defense is strong up front and plays with a tough-as-nails consistency, but they’re just as susceptible to the big play through the air as anyone. Unfortunately, Auburn hasn’t shown much in the way of big plays in the passing game over the last few games. But the Tigers will definitely benefit from the return of Emory Blake, who is seemingly back at full strength for the first time since his injury against South Carolina early in the season.

The Cavaliers employ a basic 4-3 defense, highlighted by its secondary. Senior strong safety Rodney McLeod is a leader on their defense, and has four picks on the season while racking up 55 tackles. Virginia’s other star in the secondary is freshman corner Demetrious Nicholson, who has two interceptions, 56 tackles, and has only gotten better as the year has gone on. Virginia’s leading tackler is junior linebacker Steve Greer.

When you look at this Virginia defense, not too many players in particular jump out at you, but what the Cavaliers will do is play strong for 60 minutes, and provide a constant test, which could spell trouble for an Auburn offense that has been more than inconsistent at times this season.

The battle on this side of the ball should simply come down to how well Auburn has been able to fix the leaks in their offense during bowl practice as compared to the back stretch of the season. Unfortunately for Auburn, with their leading rusher suspended for the game and their offensive coordinator having one foot out the door, that may not be the most favorable matchup for the Tigers.

Special Teams: As mentioned before, running back Perry Jones returns punts for Virginia, but it’s freshman wide receiver that handles kickoff return duty. The Cavaliers have yet to score on a punt or kick return this season, but they did allow a punt to be housed on them, by Idaho, earlier in the season.

Virginia’s punter is senior Jimmy Howell, and place kicking for Virginia is senior kicker Robert Randolph, who is a decent 15-for-22 on the season.

All told, with Cody Parkey finding his touch here late in the season, and with Mason and McCalebb returning kickoffs for the Tigers, and with Parkey booming kickoffs through the end zone on the opposite side, Auburn should actually have a rather distinct advantage when special teams are on the field.

Reason for Worry: Auburn doesn’t appear to be very prepared for this game, neither in its personell nor with its coaching staff, which is short a defensive coordinator and has a borrowed offensive coordinator who is spending half of his time dedicated to his next job. Meanwhile, Virginia is a program that is still on its climb and has all cylinders running. Going into this game tonight, Virginia appears to be in its prime and building for the future, while Auburn is backpedalling into the bowl game, fueled on fumes from the past.

Reason for Confidence: If nothing else, at least Auburn has been here before. After a season with as tough of a schedule as the Tigers have had to face, they certainly don’t face any kind of shortage on experience against quality competition. And, a season removed from winning last year’s BCS national championship, they’re certainly used to getting their opponent’s best shot, which is exactly what they’ll get from Virginia. They’re even a little used to the Georgia Dome after having played there last year. If nothing else, Auburn will be able to lean on the fact that they’ve been here before, and even if the Tigers are playing their worst, they won’t fall apart. You might not could say the same about their opposition in this bowl game.

Three Wishes

1. Find the end zone. Auburn can’t let scoring opportunities slip away in this one, and with you never knowing how the Tigers’ offense is going to run series to series, they can’t go trading touchdowns for field goals. Scoring was something that Auburn seemingly just forgot how to do late in the season, but the Auburn offense is going to have find ways to get the ball across the plane in this one.

2. Establish an inside running game. Auburn doesn’t need McCalebb or Mason to be someone they’re not, and they don’t need to kid themselves into thinking that somebody like Onterrio McCalebb is going to be able to grind it out with tough running between the tackles all game long. But Auburn needs to have some kind of inside game, if only to keep the defense honest and to allow McCalebb and Mason to get their big chunks of rushing yardage on the outside edge.

3. Force turnovers. Aside from just taking what the Cavaliers give them, Auburn needs to look to force Virginia’s hand, and bring the ball back to their offense as often as they can. With 3rd-down stops being at a premium for the Tigers all season, winning the turnover battle would help Auburn’s chances in this one tremendously.

The Prediction

In the end, there isn’t much that we’ve seen over the last few weeks that shows that Auburn is very prepared to win this game, and they certainly haven’t done much of anything to have improved themselves or to have taken too many strides forward since falling to Alabama 42-14.

Meanwhile, Virginia is nothing to scoff at. The Cavaliers are coming into this Chick-fil-A Bowl with more momentum, with more to prove, and most likely with much more motivation.

And it’s not encouraging when the only true statistical advantage Auburn has over Virginia is in its running game, and that’s an advantage that instantly went out the door with the suspended Mike Dyer.

Auburn matches up well enough in this game, and they should do a good enough job containing Virginia’s rushing attack defensively and in finding ways to make a few plays on offense, but Auburn just doesn’t seem prepared to win.

If they can get a more-than-solid Chick-fil-A Bowl victory under their belt, it would do wonder for the Tigers in erasing 2011 and moving on to 2012. But if they can’t, we could be in for a long offseason.

The Final Score

Auburn 24, Virginia 29

*Okay, so maybe it’s the first thing you’ll notice because it happens before anything else, because it’s pre-snap. But that’s not the point.

Photo via Todd Van Emst.

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"The Beach" versus "The Blunder."

Just when things were looking up for the Auburn basketball team in the Diamond Head Classic, the Tigers set for themselves a new series of low standards for the season against Long Beach State in the tournament semifinals.

Perhaps the best part of Auburn’s victory over Hawaii in the tournament opener two nights ago was the way the Tigers were able to trudge through adversity when not playing their best and still find a way to win. Against Long Beach State, however, Auburn once again fell victim to one of their same, familiar self-implosions.

Frankie Sullivan’s superhuman effort was enough to keep the Tigers from being run out of the building for the majority of the game, but it wasn’t enough to keep the score competitive when the 49ers made their close-out run down the stretch. Sullivan alone scored 22 points, while the rest of the team combined to score just 21, as Auburn fell 64-43.

Other than Sullivan, Auburn was a combined 7-of-41 from the field on the night. An Adrian Forbes tip-in was the only non-Sullivan field goal of the first half.

That’s not to say that games like last night’s don’t happen. Kenny Gabriel rolled his ankle early in the contest and wasn’t the same when he returned. Rob Chubb found himself in foul trouble early, and eventually fouled out of the game. And, sometimes, shots just don’t fall.

But Auburn is starting to develop an ugly habit of getting into foul trouble, and for the second straight night Rob Chubb, Adrian Forbes, and Kenny Gabriel all finished with four or more fouls. And for the second straight night, Auburn was on the short end of a huge discrepancy in free throw shooting. The Tigers attempted just six free throws compared to Long Beach State’s 25, just a night after earning just 11 attempts to Hawaii’s 23.

Meanwhile, Auburn finds themselves nearing the end of non-conference play without any truly dependable scoring outside of Frankie Sullivan. Kenny Gabriel will surely find his way out of the funk that he’s been in over the last three games, but Auburn could certainly be helped by that happening sooner rather than later. Meanwhile Varez Ward, who at one time accounted for a huge chunk of Auburn’s points by either scoring himself or distributing the basketball, hasn’t had a 5-assist game since starting the season with four (consecutively).

Tony Barbee continues to mix and match his personnel, too, but any new combinations certainly weren’t of any use against Long Beach State. Allen Payne hasn’t seen the floor at all since logging just nine minutes against South Florida, even after Kenny Gabriel went down with injury in the first half last night. Josh Wallace, also, entered the game for only three minutes, in favor of Tony Neysmith, who made his season debut in the second half after returning from suspension.

Josh Langford, also returning from the same suspension, made his first start of the year. Noel Johnson made his Auburn debut last night and worked his way into the flow of the things on the court after being limited by NCAA transfer rules and a hand injury. And freshman Cedric McAfee ended up playing 12 minutes, by far the most time he’s had all season, as Barbee tinkered his lineup in favor of either the prospect of gaining experience or on-setting fatigue from the Hawaii game the night before.

It isn’t that Auburn fans should be upset about the Tigers losing to a very talented and heavily favored Long Beach State team. What’s troubling is the way they did it. They were nearly run out of the arena in the same way they fell to Seton Hall earlier in the year. Shots weren’t falling then for Auburn, either, and when breaks weren’t going the Tigers’ way, there wasn’t much they could do but fold.

What Auburn has to do before conference play rolls around in January is find some consistency—and perhaps more importantly, find someone dependable other than Frankie Sullivan that can take some responsibility in scoring the basketball on the offensive end.

The good news for Auburn is that everything won’t go wrong for the Tigers every single night. In games where one of the best all-around players on the team doesn’t go down with injury just minutes into the contest, and in games where not every single one of their bigs is in foul trouble early and often, and in games where the Tigers actually get a lucky bounce or two, Auburn will be able to play within their confines and will have the athletic ability and the pieces to be able to play up to almost anyone on their schedule.

But in those games where not everything goes right for the Tigers, Auburn will have to find something to default back to and lean on, and at least give themselves a chance to compete, instead of getting blown out by 20 by every quality opponent they come across. And in that, Auburn will find the takeaway it needs to bring home from this loss.

It’s not the end of the world for these Auburn Tigers; they still have one more game to play in Hawaii, and perhaps the most important one of the series on the tournament’s final day in their third-place game against Tony Barbee’s former team.

Auburn has Christmas Eve off, but is right back in action Christmas Day against UTEP at 6:30 p.m. CST on ESPN2.

With a win in the consolation game, Auburn could officially finish as the bronze medalists in the Diamond Head Classic, and could just as importantly return home with a 2-1 record in the tournament and rightfully consider their trip to Hawaii a big success. Win against UTEP, and Auburn could have yet another solid non-conference victory under its belt, and could once again earn valuable experience against quality competition as December comes to a close. What Auburn has to do now is put the Long Beach State loss behind them, and re-focus their attention to UTEP… and to not letting another one slip away from them so easily.

Photo via.

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"Mele Kalikimaka is Kenny Gabriel's way to say Merry Christmas A very Merry Christmas, a very, very, Merry, Merry Christmas to you..."

Auburn fans who stayed up late Thursday night and into early Friday morning to see their Tigers compete in the first round of the Diamond Head Classic were treated to a thrilling game and a 65-62 victory over the home standing Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.

Things seemed all but lost for the Tigers when they faced their first deficit of the game with under nine seconds to play. Having never trailed, a series of turnovers, a back-court violation, and missed free throw opportunities led to a Hawaii bucket that gave the Rainbow Warriors a 62-61 lead and seemingly sunk the Tigers’ chances. But in Auburn’s final, desperation possession, Varez Ward ran the length of the court before cutting the basket, drawing defenders, and dishing to Rob Chubb for an emphatic go-ahead slam. A steal on the ensuing inbounds pass and two Chris Denson free throws later, the Tigers escaped with victory.

The win is Auburn’s first away from Auburn Arena, and brings the their overall record to 8-1. But more importantly in the context of this season, the win means that these Tigers won’t be returning from Hawaii and this pivotal tournament series completely empty handed. They’ll have invaluable experience and confidence in close game situations moving forward.

Auburn certainly could have won the game more convincingly, especially for only having trailed for six or so seconds in the entire game, and for having led at times throughout by as many as 11. But Auburn faced adversity the whole night, with each of its big men battling foul trouble right from tip off. The Tigers were constantly at a disadvantage, getting calls and getting to the free throw line. With just 43 seconds to play, Hawaii had attempted 22 free throws from the line, while Auburn had attempted just 5.

Moreover, Auburn was matched up against the tournament hosts, on their own court and in front of their own fans. When you consider jet lag and all of the other outside factors surrounding this game, it’s no wonder that the Rainbow Warriors were able to hang around. Consider them again, and you realize that the Tigers were very fortunate to come away with a hard-fought victory.

The trio Frankie Sullivan, Kenny Gabriel, and Rob Chubb led the way for the Tigers. Sullivan led the team with 17 points and pulled down 7 rebounds, while Gabriel scored 13 and brought down 9 boards. But the hero of the day was Chubb, who scored 14 points in the game, with 10 in the second half alone, including the go-ahead jam with 3.9 seconds to play.

With the win, Auburn advances to the semifinals of the tournament, and will play their second of three games in three days tonight against Long Beach State at 10 p.m. CST on ESPN2.

Long Beach State topped a depleted Xavier team— still without four of its players, suspended after the brawl that took place in their game against Cincinatti—to earn their spot in tonight’s matchup against Auburn. The winner/loser of this semifinal will take on the winner/loser from the opposite semifinal, between Kansas State and UTEP, on the third and final day of the tournament.

The Long Beach State 49ers aren’t a joke; their convincing win over Xavier have proven themselves to (so far) be the second best team in this tournament behind Kansas State.

The 49ers have 5 losses on the season, but most of those have come against high-quality competition, like No. 4 Louisville, No. 5 North Carolina, No. 12 Kansas, and San Diego State, a Sweet Sixteen team a year ago, in overtime. Meanwhile, Long Beach State boasts convincing victories against No. 15 Pittsburgh and, obviously, No. 14 Xavier just yesterday.

To make a run at Long Beach State, and a run at the finals in this tournament, Auburn will have to find their matchups early and hang around with the 49ers until the very end of the contest, where they can perhaps can pull some similar late-game theatrics and come away with what would surely be considered an upset. Depth coming off of the bench will be crucial for Auburn, especially a day after a wire-to-wire battle. Guys like Allen Payne, who did not play yesterday but has plenty of experience under his belt, could be huge for Auburn when the rest of Tony Barbee’s forwards start to lose their legs.

Tonight, Auburn will have an even better chance, on an even bigger stage on ESPN2 and in the semifinals of tournament basketball, to make a statement and to prove some things to the world and to themselves. Auburn will have the opportunity once again to play with passion. If they can find a way to play up against and beat Long Beach State, they could be looking at the opportunity to play against an NCAA tournament-bound team in a championship matchup that would have to be considered one of the biggest non-conference games the Tigers have had in years. But if they come up short, Auburn could still be set for an intriguing matchup in their third game of the series against Tony Barbee’s former team.

Either way, this tournament has plenty left in store for Auburn. And, either way, it’ll be well worth staying up late again.

Photo via.

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Varez Ward, jammin' on the one.

The 2011-2012 Auburn basketball team has been in the national spotlight just once this young season, in an 81-59 loss to Seton Hall during the SEC/Big East Challenge on Dec. 2. For many of expat Auburn fans, the loss—Auburn’s first road test of the season and the only time the Tigers have been nationally televised this year—had to have been an all too familiar scene: a slow start, sloppy ball control, and a lack of truly dependable scoring ability ruled the night. For those fans who have only had the chance to see the Tigers in that one contest on ESPNU, it must be discouraging to think that this team could be marred by the familiar problems (lack of leadership, scoring responsibility, and length and athleticism) that have haunted the program in years past, that the Tigers could be in for another long campaign of frustration.

But those of us who have been fortunate enough to see the Tigers in all of their other games so far this season, we know that that just won’t be the case.

The Tigers are 7-1 on the season, undefeated at home, and with nine wins in Auburn Arena if you count two preseason exhibition games (which haven’t always been guarantees in recent years). So far this season Auburn has played with discipline and excitement, with new pieces fitting in just where the coaching staff needed them to fit in. The Tigers have seemingly found their identity inside the defensive brand of basketball that head coach Tony Barbee promotes.

Some distant fans may not have been watching when that philosophy earned them a 52-40 victory over South Florida, and avenged that SEC/Big East Challenge loss to Seton Hall by downing Big East competition at home just a game later.

The team that Tony Barbee has built for 2011-2012 is far different from the Tigers team that struggled through last season.

The most obvious change is an added injection of talent, from both new faces and old friends. Texas transfer point guard Varez Ward, who sat out last season waiting out a knee injury (and NCAA transfer rules), has become all that Auburn fans hoped for. Ward immediately gives Auburn more scoring opportunities as soon as he steps on the floor, averaging 11.1 points and 4.3 assists per game so far this season. He has seamlessly found his place on this team, giving the Tigers what they have been lacking in years past— a true point guard that can distribute and make his teammates better on the offensive end, while being able to pick up the ball and score himself when needed, like in his 20-point performance against Nicholl’s State and by scoring 17 against North Florida.

Auburn’s back-court also received a major upgrade in talent and in leadership with the return of veteran Frankie Sullivan, who took a medical-redshirt after missing almost all of last season with an ACL tear. Despite returning from injury, Sullivan is back and playing better than ever, tapping the potential Auburn fans have seen from the 2008 Alabama Mr. Basketball runner-up since he arrived on the Plains. It’s no surprise that Sullivan is Auburn’s leading scorer with 13.1 points-per-game, but just as valuable to the Tigers as his dependable scoring is his leadership, both with his hard-nosed play on the defensive end and in the feel he has for his teammates when the basketball is in his hand.

But apart from new additions, the same core group of players from 2010-2011 have made strides and have begun to fulfill the potential that Auburn fans saw from them down the stretch last season. Kenny Gabriel has come into his senior season along with Sullivan as one of the team’s most well-rounded and best overall players on both ends of the court, putting together a nice stat line with 10.9 points/game, 8.8 rebounds/game, and 3.0 blocks/game. Center Rob Chubb bulked up over the summer, adding 20 pounds this offseason, and has found his groove in different matchups throughout the season, as recently as in Monday’s tilt against Florida A&M where he scored 21 points.

Meanwhile, Auburn continues to add players to the shuffle. Josh Langford has made his return and added some length and athleticism to the team over the last two games, after he and Tony Neysmith returned from suspension before the North Florida game. 6-foot-6 guard and Clemson transfer Noel Johnson is eligible to play, but has missed each of his chances so far to make it onto the court with injury.

Johnson could make his Auburn debut in Honolulu, Hawaii, of all places, early Friday morning. Auburn could certainly use him, and all of the depth they can find on the back end of the bench, as it competes in three games in three days in the Diamond Head Classic tournament this week. It could finally be another chance for Auburn fans across the country to see the Tigers on national television again this holiday season.

Auburn begins the tournament against the home standing Hawaii Rainbow Warriors late Thursday night / early Friday morning, with tipoff at midnight Central time on ESPNU. And with the way Auburn has been playing and with the tournament draw they’ve been given, Tiger fans may just have reason to be excited and to stay up late. If Auburn can get past Hawaii, they will face either Long Beach State or a depleted Xavier team, still reeling with four players suspended after a brawl during its game with Cincinatti, meaning that Auburn could actually find themselves in a position to make a run in actual tournament basketball.

But regardless of the boost that bringing home some victories from Hawaii could provide, or the opportunity Auburn has once again on the national stage, the true take-away from this tournament could be the experience the Tigers could gain, and the opportunity that they have to show some consistency against stout competition in their second real road trip of the season. Auburn could easily find themselves facing off against two NCAA tournament teams in two days on the back end of this tournament, which would prove invaluable as they prepare for the SEC slate in January.

For now, all these new Auburn Tigers have to do is take their show on the road—and show those fans across the country, and maybe a few folks in Honolulu, just what they’ve been missing.

Photo via Todd Van Emst.

…

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The enemy awaits.

The Good Guys: In a way, Saturday’s game could provide some relief to the Auburn faithful, as it brings about the conclusion of the brutal four-game stretch that they’ve been dreading since January 11. With an upset victory in Columbia, and in holding serve last week at home against Florida, Auburn has navigated it better than many predicted going into October.

The bad news is that it all comes to a head on Saturday, when Auburn faces their toughest challenge of the month, and most likely the entire season, when they travel to play the No. 1 ranked LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge.

A skilled opponent. A fierce defense. A frenzied atmosphere. It could easily become an overwhelming scenario for a young Auburn team. If Auburn is going to have any chance in this game, they’re going to have to ignore all of that, and see only the opportunity that is in front of them.

Lost in the wash of the glory of last season and in the expectations of years to come is the position that Auburn is in today—on Saturday they’ll be returning to the classic underdog role that makes college football so grand.

The best part about competing in major college football, and in this league especially, is that you don’t have to be undefeated, you don’t have to win championships, and you don’t have to be better than your opponent, besides on any given day, to make history.

That’s the opportunity Auburn has. Going in, all the Tigers can do is give their best bid at the monumental upset.

If they fall short? Just come home and get ready for Ole Miss.

The Bad Guys: It seems like so much more than a year ago that Auburn was in this same position as LSU is in now.

Eight weeks into the 2011 season, LSU remains undefeated and untied, and in sitting atop the BCS rankings, controls their own destiny to the national championship.

LSU has a couple of big games remaining on the schedule, but as of now the Bengal-Tigers are just trying to fight their own complacency, and find ways to continue to win in the toughest conference, and toughest division, in all of college football.

They can’t afford the slightest slip-up, either. While they managed to win it all in 2003 and in 2007 with a loss (or two), they almost certainly won’t have that opportunity in 2011, with teams like Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Boise State all having viable cases to play for the crystal football.

In recent weeks LSU has thrashed middle-of-the-road conference opponent such as Florida and Tennessee, all of whom were just as set on upsetting LSU as Auburn will be on Saturday. LSU has separated themselves from the pack, and will wish to continue to prove themselves against solid, ranked conference opposition tomorrow.

All the while, the Tiger Bowl features the same Auburn/LSU matchup that has for the last decade represented the pinnacle of play in the Western division of the Southeastern Conference. As present circumstances would have it, Saturday’s game could be one of the last of such contests.

Either way, neither of these hated rivals want to lose this game.

When LSU has the ball: I’d say that the key for Auburn’s defense would be to pressure LSU’s redshirt senior quarterback Jarrett Lee, but that just might be impossible.

LSU’s pass protection has been stellar this season allowing just five sacks on the year, which is good for tops in the SEC and one of the best nationally. Auburn (who has, for comparison, allowed 14 sacks this year) will be going after him with a pass rush that has only recently come into form, ranking in the middle of the league with 11 sacks this season.

If Auburn can’t find ways to out Lee under duress, he’ll have a chance to get into rhythm with his talented receiving corps, led by veteran junior Reuben Randle, who has five touchdowns this season. He’ll also try to get the ball in the hands of highly-touted freshman receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who already has 22 catches on the year.

Behind a veteran line starting two seniors, two juniors, and a sophomore, odds are Lee will have plenty of time to get the ball out of his hands. The challenge for Auburn will be to play back and see what their secondary can do defensively once it’s in the air.

Normally, Auburn wouldn’t have the choice to play back at all against a bruising ground game like LSU’s, but as you already know, reports are swirling that LSU’s leading rusher Spencer Ware has been suspended for the game along with a couple of his teammates. Stepping into Ware’s place first will be redshirt sophomore Michael Ford, who has six touchdowns on the year to his own credit coming in relief. Auburn will also see a healthy dose of speedy sophomore Alfred Blue. Neither are as big or will provide the same physical presence as Ware does, but Ford in particular should have no troubles stepping into Ware’s role and running between the tackles.

With an offensive line this talented, LSU will still find a way to run the football, but you can’t just replace a guy like Ware, who has averaged 18 carries a game for them, on such short notice without missing a beat. Meanwhile, Auburn’s front seven has played well against the run in recent weeks, which would make one think that LSU is going to have to beat Auburn through the air.

Auburn’s gameplan defensively on Saturday should be–as insane as it sounds in a series as physical as Auburn/LSU to play back and trust their front seven to keep LSU’s inhibited running game in check, while trying to make plays in the secondary and hoping Jarrett Lee plays like Jarrett Lee.

Unfortunately for Auburn, Jarrett Lee hasn’t played like Jarrett Lee at all so far in his senior campaign. But if you’re the Tigers, the best chance you have at slowing down the LSU offense would appear to be to make him work for everything he gets, and try to throw him, and the entire LSU offense, off of their game.

When Auburn has the ball: Also unfortunate for Auburn is that they’re going to have to score some points in order to win on Saturday. It’s going to be tough to do that against this LSU defense, who, make no mistake about it, is as advertised.

Luckily, the LSU defense won’t be at full strength as defensive backs Tyrann Mathieu and Tharold Simon will be suspended along with Ware, according to reports.

That’s good news for Auburn, because in years past, LSU’s defense has always relied on key leaders at focal points of the defense to make plays when necessary and help bring their respective units to playing to their level. Last season, it was Drake Nevis, Kelvin Sheppard, and Patrick Peterson they couldn’t do without. This season, one of those leaders is Tyrann Mathieu.

LSU still has its leaders at other positions on the defense. Redshirt sophomore defensive end Sam Montgomery has become a playmaker on the defensive line this season, following a year that earned him Freshman All-SEC honors.

Meanwhile, senior Ryan Baker has been a rock for the Bengal-Tigers at the linebacker position, and has logged 27 tackles despite missing a game earlier this season.

But the best place for the Auburn offense to attack will be the LSU secondary, where the proud LSU defense will be down two men.

Clint Moseley is in a pretty bad position to be making his first career start, against No. 1 LSU in Baton Rouge. But it could be worse; Tyrann Mathieu could be playing.

Auburn’s best chance at putting points on the board will be through the air, meaning the Tigers are going to need Moseley to play with fire and with that “gunslinger” / Guslinger mentality that the coaches have described. Auburn could also use a return from Emory Blake and/or Trovon Reed, both of whom are questionable to play with injury.

Auburn can’t play to protect Moseley and avoid mistakes. If they don’t play to win Saturday, they’ll be overwhelmed by LSU before the first quarter is even over.

Meanwhile, the lingering trend all season has been Auburn’s inability to put points on the board away from Jordan-Hare Stadium, and they definitely won’t be in Kansas any more when they step onto the field in Death Valley.

Special Teams: Mathieu was also LSU’s leading punt returner. Without him, Auburn could see Randle, Beckham Jr., freshman wide receiver Jarvis Landry back to return.

Junior cornerback Morris Claiborne is LSU’s kickoff return specialist. He housed one kickoff already this season, against West Virginia.

LSU’s punter is freshman Brad Wing, whose infamous touchdown run against Florida was called back two weeks ago. Their placekicker is junior Drew Alleman, who is 9-for-11 on the year with a long of 44 yards.

Reason for Worry: You would think that Auburn could come out of this October stretch better than ever, now with plenty of experience for their youthful players and having been in games on a big stage. But that isn’t usually how it works, and it wasn’t the case the last time Auburn went to Baton Rouge, when they got hammered by LSU on the back end of a three-game losing streak. Instead, then Auburn was more fatigued than anything, and after consecutive games against South Carolina, Arkansas, and Florida, you have to wonder how much gas these Tigers have left in the tank.

Reason for Confidence: As much as I mentioned the possibility of Auburn being overwhelmed in Tiger Stadium tomorrow, I don’t think it will happen. There are two teams in the Southeastern Conference that plan to earn their victories by demoralizing their opponents, and they’re both good at it. LSU is one; Alabama is the other. Neither can (to paraphrase) make their opponent quit when they’re playing Auburn. It’s nothing noble — Auburn just follows them too closely, and no one gives up on some of their biggest rivalry games that easily. Auburn won’t give up on the game tomorrow. They’ll give LSU their best shot. Auburn fans just have to wonder if their best shot is going to be good enough.

The Prediction

This should just be another victory for LSU.

These Auburn Tigers will have to do something very out of the ordinary in order to win in Baton Rouge tomorrow.

That isn’t to say that they can’t do just that. Auburn could come out tomorrow with a new passion that they’ve picked up somewhere this midseason, while LSU could play complacently and at a loss without crucial peices to their offense and defense. But that isn’t what anyone should expect.

Auburn people have good reason be excited once again about where the program is headed in the very near future. And, soon, they can expect the Tigers to be able to once again defeat top-flight teams in big-time games in electric venues.

But they’d be misguided to expect it just yet.

Auburn will fight for four quarters, whether the game is in doubt by then or not, and we’ll get a good look into this team and what exactly they’re made of. We’ll get to see a lot, but, barring a miracle, we’re not going to see a victory.

Here’s hoping for a miracle.

The Final Score

Auburn 16, Louisiana State 31

Photo via.

Related: I’m telling you there’s a chance.

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Because sometimes, college football fandom requires a certain amount of willful dumb. This is one of those times. OR IS IT?

I won’t want to step on the toes of the other fine preview work being done here at TWER, so I’ll try to keep this short: I believe Auburn has a chance to win Saturday’s game in Baton Rouge.

Not a great chance. Not even a good chance. It’s barely a puncher’s chance, since the Auburn offense isn’t capable of doing much punching these days, likely even less against LSU’s band of merry defensive monsters in Death Valley. But a chance. I believe it’s there.

Even that’s more optimism than I expected to have during the precious, thrilling, inspiring/infurating, slipshod South Carolina win, or the second-half capitulation at Arkansas. And obviously, beating Florida by 11 points when LSU beat them by 30 shouldn’t really inspire much in the way of confidence.

But it’s nonetheless inspired a small, probably irrational acorn of confidence I’m going to give some water and sunlight by explaining why I think Auburn’s got a chance:

This is exactly the kind of offense our defense wants to see. What’s been lost in all the Ted Roof back-and-forth is that his (and Gene Chizik’s) defenses have always been hot garbage against any team that can throw to set up the run, offers a controlled four-wide short passing game, or executes any kind of spread option. Thus: Utah State, Mississippi State, Clemson.

But they’ve also always been flat outstanding against any team that breads its butter with a straightforward pro-style pounding running attack. Thus: 2009 Alabama (a team that should have easily topped 30-plus points with their field position that game), South Carolina (this year and last), Florida. Yes, it helped that a labrador retriever with a football-propelling cannon strapped to its back would have made a far better quarterback than what the Gamecocks and Gators trotted out there, but still, it wasn’t all Auburn’s opponents’ incompetence; the Gators averaged more than a yard less per-play against our Tigers than they did LSU.

So yes, LSU is going to line up and try to knock Auburn backwards Cro-Magnon style and there’s no doubt they are very good at it and Auburn’s front seven is still very young. But: 1. this is exactly what Roof and Chizik want them to do and exactly what they know how to gameplan against 2. they will not have Spencer Ware, the back which has made this approach particularly effective so far in 2011 3. young or not, Auburn’s front seven is playing very, very well at the moment. If The Toro is on his game, the tackles hold up, and Jarrett Lee isn’t entirely on his game, Auburn will give LSU’s offense some legitimate problems.

It’s a day game, and the last in a long streak of SEC day games which LSU has dominated before they finally get to start preparing for Alabama. And LSU is favored by three touchdowns. If I’m LSU, I’m feeling like this is just the one last thing like all those other easy, easy things to get out of the way before moving on to the thing that really matters. By this point, if the Bayou Bengals really are thinking “DESTROY THEM” over “OK, one more time, let’s get this over with,” Miles is doing a stupendous coaching job. On a related note …

These teams’ offenses ought to be on opposite sides of the escalator. By which I mean: at some point Auburn is going to play better offensively. At some point, LSU is going to play worse offensively.

Actually, at some point, LSU is going to play worse on the whole: they’re not just 7-0 overall, they’re 5-1 against the spread and haven’t won by fewer than 26 points since the Miss. St game … despite the fact that on a per-play basis, they’re not quite in that national championship echelon. (Their schedule may have something to do with that, mind.) Lee has hit 17 of his past 21 passes for an absurd 12.8 yards an attempt. They’ve gone four straight games without one turnover. Before the Florida and Tennessee games, they’d been held under 4 yards per-carry in four of five games. They’ve converted 80 percent of their red zone possessions into touchdowns and 97 percent of them into points. These are simply not sustainable levels of offense. At some point, the Purple Tigers are going to have to come back to earth a bit.

Likewise, an offense coached by Gus Malzahn is not going to stay as horrid as it’s been the past few weeks forever. I know, I know: Clint Moseley making his first career start in Death Valley. Auburn’s not going to do a lot on offense. But Moseley really can’t be any worse than Trotter has been* the past few games; Blake is mostly back; Dyer and McCalebb are still Dyer and McCalebb; Frazier’s Cam imitation hasn’t really stopped being effective yet; Mathieu and Simon are out, as a big a blow to their rush defense and their pass defense given how much LSU relies on their secondary to make tackles; and ssshhhhhh, LSU somehow gave up 111 rushing yards to the SEC’s worst ground game last week.

The bottom line: don’t be surprised if Auburn’s offense looks better than it has the past couple of weeks. Not good, of course. But better.

Auburn may not give LSU the field position advantage they so desperately crave. How do you rattle off a string of merciless blowouts against stout competition while fielding the nation’s 80th-ranked team in total offense? Field position, field position, field position. Thanks to their massive advantages in turnover margin and special teams, LSU has the nation’s fourth-highest number of red zone possessions … even as they have the nation’s 68th-best offense in yards-per-play.

So what happens if LSU doesn’t have massive advantages in turnover margin and special teams? We may find out on the latter point: Parkey and Clark have all-but-negated opponent’s return games, bless them, and with Mason back we’ve got at least as much a crack at breaking a long one as they do.

As for turnovers, well, Auburn is now the only team in the country that hasn’t lost a fumble yet KNOCK ON EVERY PIECE OF WOOD YOU OWN and as indicated, LSU is overdue to make a mistake somewhere. But this is where Moseley’s inexperience hurts the most: Auburn cannot throw interceptions and hope to survive this game. (Here’s to hoping Gus has told anyone else who might throw the ball not to let go of the thing unless their target is more open than a 24-hour Wal-Mart.**) And field-flipping three-and-outs are going to hurt even worse than usual.

But if the Tigers can consistently grind out just a first down or two … and if Clark and Parkey do their things … and if Moseley takes care of the ball … then yes, Auburn can hang in the field position battle. And that’s at least half of the whole battle against LSU.

As for the other half, well, that’s trickier. But I believe the possibility exists for an erratic game from Lee. For a somnabulant performance from an LSU defense that thinks it’s just biding time ’til the Tide. For an inspired, confident performance from an Auburn defense that won’t fear what LSU brings to the table. And for just the barest trickle of improvement from the Auburn offense to get our Tigers to, say, 16 points. Which, if LSU only scores 13 or 14, would be enough.

That’s not what I believe will happen; I’m too rational to look at the trail of dead behind LSU and the trail of defeated-in-ways-even-I-am-at-a-loss-to-explain behind Auburn to call for the upset of the season. But I believe it could. And knowing that’s what this Auburn believes, too

*If you missed this tidbit from my CBS post on Moseley’s ascension: At halftime of the Clemson game, Trotter was completing 68 percent of his passes on the season for 8.9 yards an attempt, with a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Since that point: a 45 percent completion percentage, 5.3 yards an attempt, more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4). And that’s with the FAU game. I know the Blake injury stung, but … the hell? Seriously?

**See, there’s a lot of doors in front, even when it’s 3 a.m., so if we’re judging openness … look, it’s late Friday afternoon, you’re not getting my best metaphorical work here.

…

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