More Neiko Thorpe celebrations in 2010, please.

THE CAST

The Starters: CBs Neiko Thorpe (6’2″, 186, Jr.), Demond Washington (5’9″, 182, Sr.); S’s Zac Etheridge (6’0″, 213, Sr.), Aairon Savage (5’11″, 200, Sr.)

The Nickelback Also Might As Well Be A Starter: T’Sharvan Bell (6’0″, 180, So.)

The Backups: CBs Jonathon Mincy (5’10″, 180, Fr.), Chris Davis (5’10″, 182, Fr.); S’s Mike McNeil (6’2″, 208, Jr.), Ikeem Means (6’0″, 204, So.)

The Outside Possibilities: CB Anthony Morgan (5’9″, 185, So.), S Drew Cole (5’11″, 190, Jr.)

THE BREAKDOWN

Man, I don’t know. Seriously, I don’t. Here’s a picture a friend of mine made of some Boston terriers preparing to travel to space:

I feel like I’d be more comfortable discussing the fate of a crew of space shuttle terriers than I would be the fate of Auburn’s 2010 secondary.

This is not because I’m pessimistic about it. Really. It’s just that I feel like there’s nothing certain about the unit, no way on earth of making a prediction that wasn’t more than a poorly-educated guess. Like, dropped-out-in-eighth-grade educated. That kind of guess. They could be the best secondary in the SEC, top-10 in the country, and I wouldn’t blink an eye. They could be an open, gaping wound yielding yards and points to any upright quarterback and ambulant set of wideouts they faced, and I’d say “well, it’s not like we couldn’t have seen this coming.”

We’ll take it one member of the starting unit at a time:

Thorpe: There’s a reason Mel Kiper said the former Mr. Lipscomb was the No. 1 NFL prospect on the team; he’s got professional-grade size, the speed to match, a ceiling higher than any of his upperclassman defensive teammates save maaaaaaaybe Fairley. And his freshman season, he looked well on his way to hitting that ceiling sooner rather than later, playing outstanding man coverage on the perpetual island the 2008 injury ravages required.

But then there was last year, when Thorpe was a frequent coverage liability–there’s no other way to say it–and seemed to lose some of the hard-hitting aggressiveness that made us notice him the very first time he stepped on the field vs. UL-Monroe. He wasn’t bad, but he was worse than he’d been the year before, when the leap between freshman and sophomore year is supposed to be the biggest one of a football player takes their entire college career.

And now he’s Auburn’s clearcut No. 1 corner. If he’s better than his freshman year–he was terrific in the Outback Bowl and it’s not he doesn’t have the talent–he’ll be All-SEC. If he’s still the same player he was a year ago, without McFadden to handle the top guys, he’s going to get torched.

Washington: On the positive side: Washington started last season as the nickelback despite spending the first part of camp on offense, and despite a few glitches here and there, had proven reliable enough that when the Etheridge crisis hit, he got the call over Slade, Cole, et al. And frankly, he didn’t do too badly with it, doing his part in the UP YOURS effort against Alabama and not embarrassing himself against Georgia. With an entire year of preparation back at corner and his JUCO adjustment year behind him, we’ve got big things in store this year, right? Phillip Marshall thinks so–he’s predicted Washington would be All-SEC.

But for all of that, Washington didn’t exactly set the world on fire year ago, either. Size isn’t a major issue for corners, but at 5’9″, there could be some matchup problems. We still don’t really know what he’s going to do as an every-down corner.

For all of that, Washington is probably the smallest question mark of the four starters. I have a hard time seeing him be an outright weak spot, and think there’s a lot more upside than downside. But there’s still a wide, wide range of outcomes.

Savage: Savage? Aairon Savage? For serious? Hold on, let me double check … yep. Aairon Savage. Well I’ll be damned.

No one outside of Auburn’s coaches and players have any idea what Savage is going to do this season until we see him on the field Saturday. It’s encouraging that no one other than the coaches themselves could know more about playing safety that Savage surely does by now, that Savage has said he’s fully healthy and was a legitimate force at times before his injuries, and–most of all–that he’s been at the very top of the safety pecking order since the day spring camp broke.

But it’s also been three years since he played a down of college football, and you don’t shake that kind of rust off easily, if you ever do. (Ask Deangelo Benton how his one year away from the sport helped him.) And even if the rust is gone, are the injuries? They should have just assigned him ? for a number.

Etheridge: Well, this is the one guy who we know will bring it if he’s healthy. He’s also the guy whose injury was the most frightening, is probably the most difficult to recover from from a mental standpoint (would you want to go around smashing people face-first if you’d spent two months in a neck brace last winter?), and has kept him out of full-speed scrimmage action the longest. He’ll probably be fine once we get into the heart of the season, but to kick things off, again, I don’t see how you make an informed prediction about how well he’s going to respond.

But maybe the second string will bring some stability? There is T’Sharvan Bell, whose development from redshirt freshman to occasional safety cameo to major contributor against Northwestern to “penciled-in starter” according to Chizik suggests he’s fully ready to see the field. Though seeing more snaps than he’s seen yet could expose him from time to time, Bell should be fine as the nickel.

But other than him … Mike McNeil is yet another injury enigma. Ikeem Means is a sophomore walk-on. The battle for dimeback is between a pair of true freshmen, one of which is a converted quarterback. And almost by definition, things always get murkier and less predictable once you turn to the bench.

So your guess is every bit as good as mine this time. But here’s mine anyway: that we end up somewhere between the two poles, more towards the “disappointing” end as the season begins and the safeties get their feet underneath them, more towards the “awesome” end as the season progresses and guys like Bell, Washington, Savage, and Etheridge fully acclimate to the level of play and the amount of time they’re seeing on the field. Good things will happen for this unit … but just not right away.

THE PREDICTION

I guess I sort of just made it, but I’ll call for one of Etheridge or Savage to make All-SEC, for Washington to lead the team in interceptions, for Davis to eventually win the dimeback job, and for Thorpe to return to being good again … but fall short of being great.

THE UNIT’S FINAL GRADE ON AN UNNECESSARILY PRECISE FIVE-STAR SCALE

3.63 stars

By the time a recruiting cycle ends, and certain recruits that were locks have gone places they weren’t supposed to and certain studs have wound up looking far less studly and Recruit X’s signing has made former must-get Recruit Y superfluous, there’s always going to be an avalanche of ironies. Fans get so excited about whatever shiny four-star gets dangled in front of them that there almost have to be.

One of the biggest of the 2010 cycle for Auburn: Michael Dyer was a bonus. Maybe even a fallback. At least, that was the opinion of a lot of Tiger fans in the wake of the 2009 Big Cat Weekend, when Lache Seastrunk seemed to have done everything but commit (and was rumored to have done that much anyway in secret) and Marcus Lattimore was already saying how he could see himself playing alongside another great back. We knew Dyer was interested, was incredible, was the kind of player the likes of which Auburn hadn’t signed in years, but … Seastrunk! Lattimore! If you’d asked Auburn fans to rank the three in terms of how excited they were about the possibility of their commitment, Dyer would have come in a comfortable third.

But then he took a midsummer visit and came away raving, ESPN ranked him the best running back in the country, word started leaking that Dyer was the No. 1 player on the coaches’ boards regardless of position, Seastrunk’s alternating periods of brashness and coyness began playing like immaturity … and by the time the whispers started that Dyer was the lock Seastrunk used to be–even more of one–Auburn fans had come around to universally believing he was going to be Auburn’s next great running back.

Fortunately, there’s nothing really ironic about that. That’s what a lot of us still believe.

BASICS: Even if you’ve moved on from recruiting to actual football, the AUfficial Signing Day bio sheet will always be there for you, to tell us:

RB, 5-8, 201
Little Rock, AR (Little Rock Christian Academy)

HIGH SCHOOL: Named to the 2010 Parade All-American Football Team … Was a participant in the 2010 Under Armour All-American game … Named the 2009 Gatorade Player of the Year in the State of Arkansas … Named to the PrepStar Dream Team as the No. 10-ranked player in the nation … Ranked No. 14 overall and the No. 2 running back in the SuperPrep Elite 50 … Also ranked as the No. 1 player in Arkansas and an All-American by SuperPrep … No. 15-ranked player and No. 2-ranked tailback/slot back by Tom Lemming on Maxpreps.com … Selected to the 2009 ArkansasVarsity.com All-State Team… No. 3 on the Mobile Press Register’s Super Southeast 120 … Member of the Orlando Sentinel’s 2009 All-Southern First Team … 2009 EA SPORTS All-American … Finished his high school career with 8,097 yards rushing and 84 touchdowns … Rushed for 2,502 yards and 31 touchdowns as a senior … Had 242 rushing attempts for 1,984 yards and 19 TDs while catching 12 passes for 219 yards and a TD as a junior … Had 279 carries for 2,710 yards and 28 TDs and caught 22 passes for 183 yards and 3 TDs as a sophomore … Rushed 131 times for 901 yards and 6 TDs while catching 7 passes for 61 yards and a TD as a freshman.

You kind of just have to shake your head at the numbers, don’t you? That’s the highest career rushing total in Arkansas high school history, by the way.

There is one set of numbers in there I can’t say I like that much: the astronomical number of carries Dyer amassed at Little Rock Christian. It’s probably impossible to get into the neighborhood of 900, 925 carries in four years and not experience some wear and tear.

RECRUITNIK HOO-HA: You can already get an idea of how much the gurus loved him from the newspaper and second-tier recruitnik sources listed above, but even if we were just looking at the three main services, Dyer would come to Auburn as not only the biggest prize of his class but that the Tigers have ever landed in the “modern” recruiting era. No one, not even Jason Campbell or Cadillac, has rated higher. So strap yourself in:

At Rivals: five stars; grade of 6.1, the highest-possible score; the No. 2 running back; No. 11 overall in the Rivals100; No. 1 in Arkansas; No. 5 “best in space” back, No. 2 “best inside runner.” Evaluation:

Dyer is one rocked-up ball of muscle that can bounce off of defenders like a pinball. He is a slightly taller Joe Morris, a two-time Pro-Bowler in the mid-80s for the Giants … Most big, thick backs are not as good of pass receivers as Dyer. His soft hands will help allow him to get more touches in space … If he can pick up college blitzes as a pass blocker, he should see time early and often. He is a difference maker and he needs to touch the ball as much as possible.

Barry Every, the evaluator, doesn’t even really offer something for Dyer to improve on; he just says that as stocky as he is, he needs to watch his weight. OK.

At Scout: five stars; No. 2 running back; No. 15 player overall. Scouting report:

Dyer is a top tier back and he brings a lot out of the backfield. He runs low to the ground so he is extremely hard to tackle. He gets a lot of yards after contact and he catches the ball well also. The questions are his blocking ability and he can work on his acceleration a little as well. His top end speed is good, but he can improve his explosiveness. Overall, he is an elite back ready to make plays.

At ESPN: five stars; grade of 88 (next-best grade in the 2010 class: Trovon Reed at 83); No. 1 running back; No. 5 player in the ESPNU150. Evaluation:

If you’re looking for a strong, downhill runner to carry the load at the next level — Dyer is your guy. He has great body composition for the position with his thick, compact build and low center of gravity. Dyer’s very quick to square up his shoulders and accelerate north-south. He shows the vision, jump-cut skill and lateral quicks to slide through the small creases. Dyer will surprise you with his suddenness and burst, at times, through the hole. Most of his production is earned after initial contact, and he runs with good lean. Dyer blends excellent balance with a wide/powerful lower-body — including thick thighs that never stop driving. Players are not going to arm tackle this guy at the high school level, and he is very determined to finish runs with great second efforts. Dyer displays good vision to bounce outside and avoid initial penetration as well as above average burst to the corner. Dyer shows good speed for a power-runner when he breaks free in the second level and a sneaky extra gear, but he is far from a burner. He’s not overly elusive and we do question his hip fluidity at times, particularly if he lands in a heavy outside zone offense where he will need to consistently pick and slide through the hole. Dyer is physically superior to his competition on film, but Dyer still projects very well at the next level as a featured back with the rare combination of speed and power to wear down a defense in a high-carry type role. Dyer’s polished hands and receiving skills out of the backfield add to his upside. This kid’s a great college prospect.

Hey! His hip fluidity is great! This guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

So, yeah, not bad. The offers … well, just suffice it to say Dyer could have attended whatever school he wanted to.

EXCLUSIVE WBE SCOUTING REPORT

ESPN, as befitting their evaluation of Dyer as the top running back in the country, visited Little Rock last November to film Dyer’s commitment announcement and televise his final regular season game on ESPNU. Despite repeated requests from the Mrs. WBE to delete “that high school game” off our DVR, it’s been sitting there waiting patiently since then, and I finally watched it last night. Or at least, watched Little Rock Christian’s possessions. Impressions:

– Despite the (not inaccurate) rapturous praise of Dyer’s power and durability detailed above, the single most impressive aspect of his performance against Pulaski Academy was his remarkable change-of-direction skills, what analyst Craig Haubert repeatedly called his “lateral movement.” His first touchdown (of five on the night) came from about eight yards out; Dyer had a hole over the right side between the guard and tackle and picked the first three or four easily, but had a safety coming hard from his right. Dyer gave just the slightest, almost imperceptible lean to the left … then planted both feet and skipped–there’s no other word for how quick the movement was–back horizontally to his right and walked into the end zone untouched, as the poor safety flew past him. The suddenness and instinctiveness of it was, well, sort of amazing … not unlike something you’d make your “98 agility” running back do in PlayStation.

– That said, about the strength, yeah, guys at Dyer’s level were simply not going to tackle him by just falling over and trying to grab him. He had far too much power and balance for that. But that said … the level of football on display in that game was not especially high. Dyer was the most athletic player on the field by a factor of 10-to-the-1oth power, with Dakota Mosley the only other obvious potential college prospect on the field. Don’t think it matters much, and maybe some of LRCA’s other opponents are better, but just so you know.

Of course, Dyer completely dominated the game the way his talent suggested he should have–221 yards, 5 TDs, 7 yards a carry–so no complaints about him sinking to the level of his opposition.

– Worth mentioning that Dyer seemed very adept (and you’ll see it on the film in a second, too) at reading his downfield blocks. More than once he appeared to wait for a block to develop and then ran just behind the blockers’ rear end into open space. (That Mosley was the blocker in question on a couple of these runs was encouraging, though he didn’t have much else to do offensively.)

– If I hadn’t seen it mentioned elsewhere on the Interwebs, I’d have thought Dyer was nursing an injury … because he walked (and allegedly still walks) with a weird, loping gait that you could easily mistake for a limp. It didn’t seem to affect him at all once he took a handoff, and I haven’t seen it described as a problem anywhere, so I guess it’s just one of those things. But you should probably be ready the first time he returns to the huddle after a carry.

– I’m not telling you anything you don’t know, but yeah, the burst through the hole was there. The top-end speed … well, I don’t think he’s going to have too many of those untouched 60-yard outside runs to paydirt like Mr. Tate last year. But he sure ain’t slow, either. Think someone like … well, I’ll save the comparison for the end of the post.

LINKS OF POTENTIAL INTEREST

There’s a thousand-and-one things to read and see on Michael Dyer and this is already getting long, so I’m restricting myself to just five links.

1. Of the many available, this is probably the definitive highlight clip. Try not to hurt your wrist pumping your fist (you’ll want to mute the audio until the highlights start, though for “University of Auburn” reasons rather than profanity):

Here’s the link to a YouTube search for Dyer. All the highlights and interviews you’d ever want. (I’m partial to his Signing Day video for some reason.) Enjoy.

2. We can be honest about this: it’s pretty fortunate one of the country’s best running back prospects just happened to hail from the same place our genius offensive coordinator hailed from:

The key to Dyer’s commitment to Auburn was his relationship with offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. That bond started during Dyer’s sophomore year back when Malzahn was at Tulsa, but continued and strengthened after Malzahn joined Gene Chizik’s first Tigers staff this past spring.

“I have gotten to know him and his offense and everything he had to offer is amazing,” Dyer said. “Even when he was at Tulsa, I thought about Tulsa for the simple fact that playing for him would be great and I would have a great opportunity to do some work. You won’t meet too many people like him during this whole football process.”

Auburn, as it always does, did its part as well. Give yourself a pat on the back, waterlogged students!

Add in a game day atmosphere at Jordan-Hare Stadium that is one of the best not only in the Southeastern Conference, but in the country, and Dyer was hooked. From the fans to the scene to Spirit, the Auburn War Eagle, soaring around the stadium, Dyer knew it was something special.

“[Spirit] flies across and everybody is just so excited and happy,” Dyer said. “When you are sitting there in the stands, everybody has a bond, not just the team, but the fans and everybody.

“When I went to the game [a 41-30 Tigers win over West Virginia on Sept. 19)] it was pouring down rain and the game was delayed 30 minutes, but the fans were still there cheering and wet. People had paint all over their bodies and signs that they held out and they sat there throughout the game. They didn’t move. Those are true fans that I would like to play for and go out there and give 100 percent.”

What a coincidence: Michael Dyer is the sort of player the fans would love to watch and cheer 100 percent for.

3. Look, you’re not going to ever read a story about a recruit of Dyer’s stature (if any recruit, ever) where they’re described as me-first, selfish prima donnas who were only willing to do one thing for the team as opposed to the much-more standard “anything.” You have to take declarations of unselfishness with a lot of grains of salt.

But you know, getting back to that ESPNU performance, when the LRCA quarterback took off on a 30-some-odd yard touchdown for the Warriors’ second score … Dyer was clearly, genuinely happy for him, man. You could see it. Sure, the stakes of the game (playoff berth on the line, big rivals in town, national TV) meant it didn’t really matter who scored. But the congratulations and emotions were very, very real, and frankly more real than you usually see from a team’s undisputed star player.

So when I read something like this:

Michael Dyer’s football prowess is nationally known. College scouts drool over him, media members wait in line for interviews and fans try to persuade him to go to their school. But, he’s discovered the Little Rock Christian locker room is the one place he’s respected for more than his ability.

“We have a good relationship on this team,” Dyer said. “It doesn’t matter if it is Michael or Dakota (Mosley) or Jesse Stone. Everyone sticks together. We are all going to be there to help and support. We work together and do everything together” …

Dyer earns his respect by doing what’s best for the team. The past two years that meant playing linebacker. Even when he nursed an ankle injury the final six games last fall, he couldn’t be pried off the field by former coach Johnny Watson.

“On offense I do my part, and on defense I do my part,” he said. “It’s kind of tough balancing it, but I do my best. If you can do it, you can do it.”

It’s not uncommon for a player at school the size of Christian to platoon. However, it is rare for a national Top 10 recruit to extend himself.

“I do what is best for my team,” Dyer said. “I like hitting people, and I like running over people. I’ve always wanted to play both sides of the football. In high school is where you make memories. I want to go back and say, ‘Yeah, I hit that guy hard, or ‘Man, I really ran him over.’ That’s my favorite part.”

I tend to think you don’t need as much salt as usual.

4. Did Dyer raise his game when it mattered? As mentioned, the ESPNU game was to try and earn a playoff berth, and he was just about unstoppable. The following week, in the playoffs …

One week ago Michael Dyer turned in what may have been his best performance of his high school career …

On Friday, there were no television cameras but the stakes were just as high.

Little Rock Christian upset the 5A-East’s top seed Forrest City in a 29-27 victory at Mustang Field. The Warriors will travel to Greenbrier next week, after the Panthers defeated Little Rock Mills 42-35 …

The Warriors recovered the fumble and capitalized by scoring on a fourth-and-12 play when Stone hit Dyer on a screen pass for a 35-yard touchdown. The Warriors converted on the extra-point to take a 22-21 lead with 3:41 to go before halftime.

Dyer scored his second touchdown of the night on the Warriors’ first play of the second half when found room up the middle and scampered 70-yards for the score to push the lead to 29-21. He finished the night with 213 yards and one touchdown on 29 carries and also had three receptions for 51 yards and a score.

Will 264 total yards do?

5. One of the … interesting things about the Internet is that even when things go away, they don’t really go away. For instance, a story from the middle of the 2007 season detailing how he arrived at Little Rock Christian and how uncle cared for him after the untimely death of his father might have disappeared off its original website, but you can still read it as a cut-and-paste job at a New Orleans Saints fan forum. And I suggest you do.

But one thing it doesn’t mention is why he wears No. 5:

When Dyer was just 3 years old, his father was killed in a car wreck. Dyer admitted that in the years after, he was unsure of how to manage his emotions. But when he was asked to join a local football team, Dyer realized that football was a way to channel those feelings.

“From about age 4 to 9, I was so mad and angry,” Dyer said. “I needed something to do. I started playing and immediately loved it. After my first touchdown, I knew that’s what I wanted to do.”

When a recruit meets with a coach, a question that is usually asked by the coach is, “What do you want here?” When Dyer was asked that by Auburn’s staff, he had a few small requests, but there was one deal-breaker: Dyer wanted to wear the number 5 jersey.

His brother, Jonathan, was 5 years old when their father passed. Wearing No. 5 is Dyer’s way of honoring his big brother for becoming the person he looked up to while growing up.

Cool.

WHAT CONCLUSIONS WE CAN DRAW IF ANY: The question with a recruit like Dyer is not: Will he be good? We know he’s going to be good.

The question is: How good? Brad Lester good? Stacy Danley good? Brent Fullwood good? Ronnie Brown good?

I think he has a chance, a good chance, to be right on the upper end of that scale. And if you are near the very topmost portions of the scale of Auburn running backs, then you will have had one hell of a career. But what’s interesting about hypothetically trying to fit Dyer into that scale is that, after watching his highlights a dozen times and  he doesn’t exactly run like any of them. He’s got some Rudi Johnson the way he just bounces off of tacklers … but he’s also got some Cadillac the way he hits the hole with such fierceness … but he’s also got some Lionel James the way he’s capable of slithering out of ridiculously tight spots and through slim holes, the way he uses his “lateral movement.” (I’m of course not suggesting Dyer is already worthy of being compared to these kinds of backs … just that if that if we’re going to have this kind of stylistic conversation, I have to be able to reference styles you’re familiar with in the first place.) But you add them all together, and I’m not sure you have any perfect-fitting precedent at Auburn.

Which is why I feel like the back Dyer most reminds me of … you’re going to hate me for this … remember, I said he might not have even been the best Heisman candidate on his own team, much less the country … is Mark Ingram.

WAIT COME BACK! Just hear me out: we can agree that if Dyer has a career at Auburn like Ingram has had up in Tuscaloosa, we’ll all be very happy, right? Right. And the reason that notion isn’t entirely preposterous is because Dyer and Ingram–despite their wildly divergent recruiting profiles–have a lot in common. Neither boasts elite size–Dyer’s 5’8″ or 5’9″, Ingram 5’10″–but both are still plenty stout enough to shed tacklers by the dozens. Neither boasts elite, sprinter’s speed, but both are aggressive in the hole and can leave anyone not playing in the secondary in their dust. But what they do have is an elite pairing of vision and feet, of instincts and agility, that means that not only do they hit open spaces with all the power and speed they’ve got, but they find the right space. Their exceptional balance and control means that you can bring them down if you have the right angle, but that finding that angle is never easy. Put simply, what makes Ingram great against teams that are not Auburn and what we hope will make Dyer great, is the same thing: they’re just hard to tackle. The speed and power are just bonuses, their immense drive and motor the icing on the cake.

At least, we can say those things about Dyer at the high school level. The jury is technically still out on whether those descriptions will still apply in college. But we won’t have to wait long for the verdict, and I’m thinking we’ll like what we hear.

Once more, Foot Lauderdale, for old time's sake?

THE CAST

The Starters: PK/KS Wes Byrum (6’2″, 216, Sr.); P Ryan Shoemaker (6’0″, 177, Sr.); KR Demond Washington (5’9″, 182, Sr.), Onterio McCalebb (5’10″, 171, So.); PR Quindarius Carr (6’1″, 186, Jr.); DS Josh Harris (6’1″, 230, Jr.); H Neil Caudle (6’3″, 198, Sr.)

The Backups: PR Darvin Adams (6’3″, 185, Jr.), Trovon Reed (6’0″, 181, Fr.); KR Mario Fannin (5’11″, 228, Sr.), Neiko Thorpe (6’2″, 186, Jr.); PK/KS Cody Parkey (6’0″, 184, Fr.); P Steven Clark (6’5″, 232, Fr.)

THE BREAKDOWN

No way to really pull all this together in one tidy package, so we’ll just take it unit-by-unit:

Field goal: It couldn’t really have gone much better than 15-of-16, 54-of-54, and zero kicks blocked, could it? No, no it could not.

Which is why, in one sense, this is the one part of special teams you might expect to regress. Byrum had a couple of kicks that juuuuust shaved the inside of the upright; one or two of those are probably going to shave the other side this season by random chance. Byrum also never attempted a 50-yarder in 2009–not even one longer than 46 yards after the 49-yard half-ender against La. Tech–and as aggressive as we know Malzahn and Chizik will be, it seems unlikely that after the year Byrum just had, they won’t try him from a little longer, more difficult distance. Oh, and after a perfect year last year, the one extra point in a hundred Byrum might miss might come again this season.

But that doesn’t mean Byrum’s headed for a bad year … in fact, if the offense performs the way we expect it to perform, he’ll finish with far more opportunities, far more points, and hopefully the Groza Finalist/All-SEC honors he was somewhat unjustly denied a year ago. Besides, the truest measure of a placekicker isn’t just the routine kicks–it’s the pressure-packed game-winners, and Byrum hasn’t even had to face one since his ridonkulous 2007. (No, I don’t think the 21-yarder in the first OT against Northwestern entirely counts.) If he can give us some more of that brand of magic, I don’t think anyone will sweat a miss here or there.

Field goal block: One of the secret successes of Auburn’s special teams last year was the stunning success the Tigers enjoyed in kick blocking–they got four of them, tied for 15th in the country even with punts included. One of those led to the touchdown that kept Auburn in the Kentucky game, and two extra point blocks–one against Ole Miss returned for two points just as the Rebels began to threaten, the other against Northwestern–each proved critical. Whatever Tracy Rocker and Jay Boulware are doing here, it’s working, and there doesn’t seem to be any reason for decline.

Punting: A couple of times last year, Jay Boulware would mention how proud he was of Clinton Durst punting the ball either 31 yards out-of-bounds or sky-high 33 yards, and I would wonder, “is that really the best we can do?”

And when you look at where Auburn finished in terms of defending the returns Durst’s punts actually allowed–i.e. 106th, with the average return covering nearly 13 yards–you realize, “yes,that was the best we could do.” Given those kinds of struggles and the block given up against Miss. St., maybe we should have thanked Durst a little harder for even getting Auburn up to 64th. This represented a big swoon from the 18th-place finish in 2008, but it could have been worse.

And this year should be better. Shoemaker may have been Dursted out of the job the last two years, but the talent he showed back in 2007 should still be there … or he wouldn’t have even won the job back from Clark. Durst’s raw average a year ago, just under 40 yards a boot, should certainly be attainable. The return coverage, meanwhile, should be dramatically improved thanks to having, you know, actual scholarship athletes on the unit. They can’t get any worse, can they? Keep the punting quality about the same, cover better, and a step forward should be simple … even if I doubt Shoemaker quite has the goods to get Auburn back to the 2008  standard.

The one potential issue: the last time we saw Shoemaker, it was the 2008 LSU meeting and he was using his single appearance of the season to help toss away a victory with a number of shanks. We’re assuming he’s got himself mentally repaired, and that even if he hasn’t, we’ve got Clark anyway. But it’s something worth keeping an eye on.

Punt return: What’s there to say? When Auburn attempted a return, they averaged 4.46 yards a pop, the 113th-best mark in D-I. And of course a 4.46 yard return was actually a positive development–it meant that the Tigers had dared put their hands on the ball and not given it away. That didn’t happen all that often, as Mario Fannin’s muff on the first return of the year set a tone the unit never shook.

There’s nowhere to go but up, thankfully, but even so the coaches don’t seem to be taking any chances with butterfingers again: having a gangly possession receiver listed as the co-starter on the depth chart is a clear signal Chizik and Co. are valuing nothing more our of their returners this year than ball security.

Which, hey, fine by me, and in Carr they have a guy who did manage to avoid catastrophe last year. Between Carr’s ascension and the same increase in across-the-board athleticism on the unit, we really shouldn’t see the same brand of disaster we saw last year. But unless Reed or some other late-comer steals the job away and proves to be both reliable and a sudden threat, the days of Robert Dunn won’t be back just yet.

Kickoff coverage: MAKE IT STOP, AUBURN. 97th in kickoff return coverage, mediocre in kickoff distance and touchback percentage, and at an average number of kickoffs per-game of 5.3–higher than all but one other team ranked 85th or higher (at least it’s Alabama)–suffering more from it than their fellow suckees. Momentum was almost always a fleeting prospect for Auburn last year, because scoring also meant putting the opponent’s kickoff return on the field.

The good news is that–one more time–it can’t get any worse. Byrum’s probably not due for a sudden increase in his kickoff distance (and Morgan Hull is no longer an option), but getting non-walk-ons onto the unit should pay dividends, and just-plain-luck should dictate things won’t be quite so terrible this go-round.

Still, unless Parkey proves to be some kind of kickoff-specialist phenomenon (the only way he’ll avoid a redshirt), it’s hard to see this becoming a strength overnight. Expect a few more hair-pulling moments.

Kickoff return: Here’s where it gets fun, finally. Demond Washington only returned 16 kickoffs last season … but he averaged more on those 16 attempts than all but five other returners in the country and turned one of them into a touchdown. Having Washington handling returns from the start of the season should make Auburn on the country’s most dangerous kick return teams, and it’s not just him–with Onterio McCalebb proving against Tennessee that he also has the potential to take one the distance, no part of Auburn’s special teams will be more exciting … or productive.

THE PREDICTION

Byrum goes 23-29 for the year but beats either Arkansas or Georgia on a last-second kick from 40-plus-yards … Carr provides security but so little threat at punt returner the coaches begin experimenting with Reed, who finally takes over the job with three games to play … Auburn finishes between 30 and 50 in national net punting and 50 and 70 in kickoff coverage … both Clark and Parkey redshirt … Washington takes two kicks back for touchdowns, averages better than 30 yards a return (again), and makes first-team All-SEC as a returner.

THE UNIT’S FINAL GRADE ON AN UNNECESSARILY PRECISE FIVE-STAR SCALE

3.12 stars

Presenting: Georgia! (I was going to do a strait-laced Chattanooga preview in which they were taken all-caps SERIOUSLY, and it would have been funny. But we’re three days from kickoff. No time. Sorry.)

What their logo tells us about their football team: Man, so familiar. Classy. Steady. Reliable. Un-flashy. The sort of football team that wound up marrying not the head cheerleader, but, like, the cheerleader fifth-in-command, the one you could actually talk to, the one that didn’t mind dirtying her nails helping her Mom in the yard on a Sunday afternoon, that took an interest in football because she liked it and not because her boyfriend did. Someone like, I dunno, this person.

They’d be a cool football team to hang out with. Good people, and all. But a lot of times I look at what a slapdash, haphazard, crazy struggle it’s been for the rest of us … and goshamighty holy hell, do I ever hate football teams like that.

What happened for them last year: It’s not often the team that scores more than all other SEC teams in SEC play (save the one they tied with) goes 4-4 in conference, but thanks to the Dawgs’ staggering -16 turnover margin–third-worst in D-I–and another vintage Willie Martinez defense, the Dawgs managed. (Of course, Arkansas managed an even more impressive 3-5 mark, as did No. 5 offense Auburn. That three teams that good offensively still went a combined 10-14 in conference should tell you that 2009 was not a memorable year for SEC defenses.) Toss in a season-opening road loss to Oklahoma St., and the Dawgs wrapped up at 8-5. Mark Richt isn’t really on the hot seat yet, of course, but after two straight disappointments, I do have to recommend he start the ball rolling in the opposite direction this season.

What happened the last time these teams met: Auburn scored touchdowns on each of their first two possessions to go up 14-0, added another touchdown before halftime, saw McCalebb mysteriously recover from his ankle injury to break loose for another huge third-quarter score, intercepted Joe Cox twice on the same play, held Washaun Ealey to 2 yards rushing on 27 attempts, had Byrum kick a 72-yarder just for kicks, had a visiting art critic radio down to Malzahn that he was “moved to tears” by the finest work he’d seen in years, received a congratulatory call from the President in the middle of the fourth quarter when he said he “just couldn’t wait ’til the game ended,” Auburn had been so impressive, and when the final whistle blew on a 237-4 victory, the heavens opened up and cherubim descended to place laurels across the brows of the Tiger players as God’s thunderous voice boomed “BEHOLD: THE PROOF YOU HAVE BEEN SEEKING.”

Or something.

What actually happened: A loss. Fourth year in a row.

Dammit. Seriously, man. Dammit to hell.

What two things about the Bulldogs are causes for alarm:

1. The turnover thing. If you’ve read me for any length of time you know I believe, and I believe strongly, that–like a team’s record in close games–huge turnover margins one way tend to swing wildly the other way the following season. As I noted previously:

[F]rom ’02 to ’08 eight [SEC] teams had margins greater than or equal to either +15 or  -15, and seven of those saw their margin swing by a minimum of 13 turnovers the following season. (2003 MSU is the sole exception.) Average swing for those seven teams? 16.4.

Last year, Georgia did things like outgain Kentucky 487-260 and still lose by turning the ball over four times in a half. This year, at some point, the Dawgs are going to be badly outplayed and win anyway, because that’s the way these things work … and doesn’t it seem like that would be the sort of stupid thing that might happen for a road team in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry?

2. The last time Richt was having to put up with this “hot seat” nonsense, it was mid-2007, after his Dawgs had been humiliated by a so-so looking bunch of Volunteers and come out “angry” the next week to barely scrap by Vanderbilt.

All that happened after that was a bludgeoning of Florida, a rout of Auburn, the famous obliteration of Hawaii in New Orleans, and a No. 2 final ranking.

As the saying goes, I don’t think we’d like the Dawgs when they’re angry. About, you know, last year, and preseason expectations and the “hot seat” and all.

What two things about the Bulldogs are causes for confidence:

1. The last time Georgia won even four in a row in this series before last year: 1948.

OK, so that also happened to be the last time Georgia won five in a row–that was No. 5, with a tie to break the streak the following year–but you get the point: this has not been the kind of rivalry to see the huge swings in dominance we’ve gotten from the Iron Bowl. (Auburn’s longest streak since ’58 is also at only four games.) Saying Auburn is “due” to beat Georgia just because we haven’t done it for a while doesn’t have any basis in actual football or maybe even reality …

… but I still think Auburn is due to beat Georgia. (Besides, two years running the teams have been pretty much even and Auburn’s just crapped out on fourth down in Georgia territory on the final drive of the game. Eventually, we’re going to score on one of those drives.)

2. The turnover thing is clearly in Georgia’s favor, and the officials probably owe them a big call somewhere after the A.J. Green fiasco, but it’s not like the Dawgs didn’t catch a few breaks themselves; they finished at a total yardage margin or -21 yards per-SEC game (Auburn was at +6.9, for reference) and won two more close games that they lost, including a home date with South Carolina where the box score was nearly as weighted against them as the UK box score was for them.

The point: despite the turnovers, Georgia wasn’t a lot better than its record in 2009–if any–and even though I’ve gone on record a couple of times as saying they’re due for a really good season, they’re not going to be so good that another ’06/’07-style blowout is even a plausibility.

What tidbit I found most interesting from Phil Steele’s Georgia preview: There’s just something about Steele’s dry-as-dust prose and deadpan delivery that makes certain descriptions hilarious. Exhibit A, from his review of Georgia’s ’09 season:

They were pounded by Tennessee 45-19 (not even scoring an off TD) and fell to 3-3 and Richt was under fire. They beat Vandy 34-10 and were talking revenge vs. Fla but were pounded again 41-17.

Something about the repetition of “pounded” and the lack of commas–giving the second sentence just the same kind of little bit of a rise-and-fall and Georgia experienced–just brings out the giggles.

What tidbit I found most interesting from their associated Wikipedia pages: About the Arch:

Perhaps the most notable North Campus fixture, though, is the cast-iron gateway that stands at its main entrance. Known as “The Arch” (but often erroneously pluralized to “The Arches”), the structure was patterned after the Seal of the State of Georgia, and has faced historic downtown Athens ever since it was erected in the 1850s.^[21] Although the Seal’s three pillars represent the state’s three branches of government,^[22] the pillars of The Arch are usually taken to represent the Georgia Constitution‘s three principles of wisdom, justice, and moderation, which are engraved over the pillars of the Seal. There is a superstition about walking through The Arch. It is said that if you walk under the Arch before receiving your diploma, you will not graduate from UGA on time.^[23] Another legend claims that should you walk through The Arch as a freshman, you will become sterile.

Whatever, they said the same thing in high school about Mello Yello and Mountain Dew* and we all drank that stuff like water. In place of water, truthfully.

What I actually think about this matchup: Trying to predict the winner of any game that late in the season this early is probably madness, of course, but I think it goes double for these two teams this season. Both have serious weapons on offense protected by powerful, experienced fronts, though both quarterbacks’ decision-making is unproven at this stage; both have major issues defensively but lots of reason to believe things will get better; both spent last year alternating huge special teams plays with horrific boners; both have every reason to enter this season hungry as teams with loads of potential that virtually no one outside of their own fanbases expects to beat their archrivals or make it to Atlanta.

With that many similarities and checks-and-balances, you bet I’m expecting a close game. In fact, I’ll go ahead and say that this game, more than any other on Auburn’s 2010 schedule, has the potential to be a stone-cold, all-time classic in the vein of the 2005 meeting.

And I’ll also go ahead and say that with the game in Jordan-Hare, and Auburn having come up so narrowly short in 2008 and 2009, I think the close game favors Auburn ever … so … slightly. But this isn’t a game I’d expect to feel comfortable wagering more than a plug nickel on come November, and it sure as hell isn’t now.

*Yellow No. 5 … Yellow No. 5, 5, 5 …

But seriously, I’ve answered the Q&A call at a couple of other places this week, and if you’re so inclined, I’d suggest giving them a look.

One: At the ACC and SEC blog, where I discussed fun, Clemson, respect for Malzahn the wideouts, expectations, etc. A sample:

[T]he Auburn faithful are probably more excited for this season than any since 2006, and arguably any since 2003. (I wish I could have picked two other years, since both of those Auburn teams finished a little shy of their preseason expectations, but oh well.)

It’s not necessarily because we expect to win the SEC or go to a BCS bowl–though I think the majority of us would at least expect to be in contention going into the annual Georgia-Alabama “Amen Corner”–but because the dynamism of this staff, the likability of the players, and more than anything the potential thrill of this offense as directed by Gus Malzahn promises to be more fun than anything Auburn fans have seen since Tommy Tuberville’s 2004-2005 heyday.

Two: The new al.com blogger roundtable has turned out … well, kind of sweet, if you ask me. Several of the Tide responses–most notably Ell’s from BSR, I’d say–have been legitimately informative, and of course our own Kenny Smith dropped some serious knowledge last night.

Anyways: my entry is here, dealing mostly with the Auburn cornerbacks and some with present and future Games Worth Watching.

Enjoy. More stuff in this space soon.

Beware.

THE CAST

The Starters: LLB Craig Stevens (6’4″, 229, Sr.), MLB Josh Bynes (6’2″, 235, Sr.), RLB Daren Bates (5’11″, 203, So.)

The Backups: Jonathan Evans (5’11″, 230, So.), Harris Gaston (6’1″, 231, rFr.), Jake Holland (6’0″, 231, Fr.), Jessel Curry (6’1″, 214, Fr.)

The Wildcard: Eltoro “The Toro” Freeman (5’11″, 225, Jr.)

THE BREAKDOWN

The first thing I think about when I think about this year’s Auburn linebacking corps is Will Herring.

You remember Will Herring: earned a starting job at safety two games into his freshman season (redshirt freshman, but still), immediately began racking up tackles, started all 13 games in 2004 but by season’s end had become defense’s biggest Achilles heel due to over-aggressiveness against the run, was finally moved to linebacker as a senior, led team in tackles for second straight season and became second-team All-SEC at LB, was drafted in the fifth round at LB, and is still drawing a paycheck on the Seahawks’ second team four seasons later. The only question still to be answered regarding Herring’s Auburn career is: He was a linebacker even when he was a safety. So why did it take so long to move him to linebacker?

Gene Chizik wasn’t party to the move–he’d gone on to Austin, with first-year DC Will Muschamp making the call–but it’s possible he learned the lesson of Herring’s career from a thousand miles away anyway. Because last year Auburn had a freshman safety who started from Day 1, immediately began racking up tackles, occasionally allowed a big play due to over-aggressiveness against the run … you can see where this is going. But instead of waiting until his senior year, Daren Bates is a linebacker now.

This is a big, big, big deal. No one will dare say a word about Adam Herring’s effort, but through the first several games of the season, no single position on Auburn’s defense was less productive than weakside linebacker. Even once Freeman got his head on straight enough to contribute, breakdowns were still a major issue. And when Freeman went out against Georgia, the rush defense sagged again. Getting consistent production out of the spot not patrolled by Bynes or Stevens–even run-of-the-mill production–would be a massive step forward for the defense, particularly against the run.

And if Will Herring’s experience is any indication, Bates should be able to provide that production … and possibly a lot more. We know Bates has a terrific nose for the ball; we know he already has safety-quality coverage skills; we already know he’s fearless enough to lay the proverbial wood. All he really requires to succeed at linebacker is a knowledge of the schemes and maybe a tad more size. It may take another offseason to get him 100 percent as built as we’d like, but after an entire offseason working with Ted Roof, the former issue shouldn’t be one. If Roof can take Jon Evans and turn him from the tentative player we saw against the Dawgs into the terror we saw against the Tide in the space of two weeks, there shouldn’t be any issues getting Bates mentally ready.

So … if we’re not going to worry about Bates, we’re certainly not going to worry about Josh Bynes or Craig Stevens, are we? No, no we are not. If we want to pick nits, I do think Stevens could stand to be a little more aggressive, stand up to blockers a little better, and make a few more tackles near the line of scrimmage; I do think Bynes could stand to be just a little more consistent. But they’re both outstanding already–I’m looking forward to Roof unleashing Stevens, an excellent pass rusher, on the blitz much more often this season–and another year in Roof’s schemes and under his tutelage should see them develop into one of the best linebacking tandems in the league.

And they’ll actually be able to take snaps off this year! Well, probably, once The Toro comes back from his foot injury. Between the disappointing start to last season, the injury to cap it, and then landing on the second string even before the end of spring, it’s easy to forget that Freeman did flash a tremendous amount of potential in mid-2009; he was Auburn’s best player by a mile, on either side of the ball, in the LSU debacle. It’s not a guarantee a healthy Freeman would be able to replace one of the starters without the unit even noticing, but it’d at least be possible, and I’m not sure we’d be able to say that about the other backups.

But that doesn’t mean Jon Evans, for one, wouldn’t at least be serviceable (or better) after that performance against the Tide. His presence gives us five linebackers I’d be comfortable seeing on the field, or three more than we had to begin 2009.

Even the freshmen on the two-deep are going to be light-years ahead of the pace of last year’s freshmen. Heck, one of them, Gaston, was one of last year’s freshmen. But between Curry’s arrival in spring and Holland’s pre-enrollment polish, either should be at least perfectly capable of giving the starters a blow here and there.

This is not to say everything’s perfect with the linebackers, of course. Promising as the underclassmen are, having just two guys on the two-deep with more than a season under their belts at Auburn is still … sub-optimal. Bates is still going to have some adjustment pains, particularly early in the season. The season after their herculean efforts of 2009, it’s possible both Bynes and Stevens could be a little more brittle, despite the increase in rest. Which is a worry since a long-term injury to Bynes would be particularly damaging; if neither Holland nor Gaston are ready for a full-time gig, someone’s going to have to play MLB who’s not training in the position today.

But compared to either the defensive line or the secondary, those questions are relatively minor. These linebackers should be the heart of the defense, its greatest strength, the pillar on which the entire unit’s improvement rests. If they’re up to it, and I think they will be, many of the woes of 2009 will be forgotten.

THE PREDICTION

All-SEC for Bynes, second team for Stevens, Bates makes it a clean 1-2-3 sweep at the top of Auburn’s tackles chart. Freeman, Evans, and eventually Holland all show enough that no one freaks out about what lies in store in 2011.

THE UNIT’S FINAL GRADE ON A N UNNECESSARILY PRECISE FIVE-STAR SCALE

3.98 stars

As a playwright wrote once: attention must be paid. Must be.

The first picture is of senior center Ryan Pugh. The second, senior left tackle Lee Ziemba. Between them, they have started 59 straight games. They have won All-Freshman honors, All-SEC honors, team-awarded honors, Watch List honors, All-Academic honors, honors of all kinds. They spearheaded a line that produced 5.0 yards a carry last season and 1,362 yards for its leading rusher. They each rank alongside any other single Auburn offensive player for responsibility in taking Auburn from 104th in total offense to 16th.

But all of that is numbers, stats, things recorded on paper and in the occasional headline. What’s not there is Ziemba playing through pain on an injured knee in 2008, even as the season was revealed as a hopelessly lost cause. Or Pugh’s full commitment to–and even occasional success– playing as the SEC’s smallest right tackle at the end of that same miserable season. The way they both, despite their misgivings, lost a substantial amount of weight at the beginning of that year because a fraud asked them to, and then continued to play every snap without complaint, even as they twisted in the wind while the fraud and their position coach bickered. Or Ziemba’s decision to return for this season rather than heading off to the NFL. Or the way the introduction of Pugh–at left tackle, I kid you not–and Chaz Ramsey seemed to provide the spark that saved the 2007 season. Or how if Ziemba starts every game this season, he will have started more games at Auburn than any player who has ever pulled on our burnt orange and navy blue, with Pugh not far behind him.

For the reasons in both of the preceding paragraphs, one more outstanding season would–almost without question, in my opinion–see both Pugh and Ziemba rank among the better offensive linemen to have ever played at Auburn, and among the best players of the Tigers’ 21st century at any position. They are–as much as any other Auburn player could claim to be– the linchpins that have held this program together through the abyss of ’08, the coaching transition, and the midseason swoon of ’09 … that have it on the cusp on becoming the Auburn we all want Auburn to be again.

As their list of accolades suggests, that’s been enough for their teammates, opposing coaches, members of the press, etc. When it comes to the adulation college football fans, though, their reward has been somewhat muted.

Some of that is simply the fact that they’re offensive linemen. But some of it isn’t. When it comes to Ziemba, Auburn fans’ supposed disdain for him has been greatly exaggerated whenever Ziemba himself has been asked to comment on it … but that doesn’t mean he’s ever exactly been a crowd favorite, or that his reputation for flag-drawing hasn’t vastly exceeded the reality.

As for Pugh, the overwhelming majority of Auburn fans have never had any quarrel with him. Anyone who reads the blogs or message boards of Auburn’s rivals knows, however, that he’s–ahem–held in much less esteem there, and of course I’ve made it clear I’m not fond of many of the plays he’s made on the football field. But those are a handful of plays, on a football field; whatever you think of them, they don’t make him a “thug,” a “disgrace,” or virtually any of the other names he’s been called by rival fans. With all due respect to my friend and podcast colleague Doug Gillett, a three-time Academic Honor Roll student–and, to his credit, drawer of zero penalties of any kind following last year’s Tennessee game–isn’t exactly my idea of “loathsome.”

Which is why one of the things I want most for Auburn this season is for Ziemba and Pugh to play so damn well that none of those things matters, for Auburn fans or (within reason) anyone else. I want them to play so well even the seven-year-olds are talking about how it’s not just Fannin and Dyer and McCalebb that are making the run game go, that even the wives are wearing replica jerseys with 73 and 50 on them. I want them to play so well they leave Auburn with the kind of postseason honors that make you say “Wow” flipping through their resumes ten years from now.

I want them to play so well they receive the attention they deserve. Make us pay it, guys.

What's the dilly-yo, Trovon?

Andrew Gribble just posted Auburn’s depth chart under the heading “Auburn releases depth chart, doesn’t surprise anyone with anything,” and while that’s a slight exaggeration, it ain’t that far off, either. If you and I had sat down and drawn out what we expected Auburn’s two-deep to look like, we wouldn’t have been more than a few players off.

But it’s worth highlighting those players, because there are a few questions this depth chart asks, a few surprises to be duly noted. Like:

–First and foremost, Trovon Reed listed as the third-string H-back and left off of the receiving three-deep entirely. Uh … did anyone think he was even practicing at H-back? With, you know, Eric Smith and Shaun Kitchens and kinda-sorta the Swede Killa? What gives?

Here’s my theory: we know Reed has the capacity to line up just about anywhere: outside receiver, slot, Wildcat QB, and–yeah–even H-back. But he’s not a starter at any of those positions and can’t be listed as such. But he’s also not the backup, strictly speaking, because if player A went down with injury, Player B Who Is Not Reed would take over most of the snaps. Plus Reed maybe isn’t a guarantee to play at all, thanks to his injuries. So they decided to just slip him in the depth chart wherever they could, and oh look, here’s an open spot under H-back.

Whatever the depth chart says, if he’s healthy enough to play, I’ll still be somewhat stunned if someone like Kitchens or Jay Wisner sees more snaps than Reed.

– While the defensive depth chart answers a few vague lingering questions–it’s Fairley and Clayton at starting tackle; yes, Etheridge is the planned starter over McNeil; yes, Harris Gaston and Jake Holland are neck-and-neck in the backup MLB race–it’s 99 percent chalk, right down to the “OR” between Jonathan Mincy and Chris Davis in the dimeback slot.

The one surprise: Jessel Curry as Daren Bates’ backup at “RLB,” or weakside linebacker. The consensus, as far as I know, has been that Jon Evans was working behind Bates at that spot, with The Toro occupying the reserve role on Craig Stevens’ side. The depth chart, instead, has both Freeman and Evans on the strong side (with an “OR” between them). I’m assuming this is injury cover for The Toro–if he can’t go, Evans is definitely backing up Stevens, but this is still where The Toro would play if he’s healthy enough. And Evans would slide over to the weakside if that’s the case, but since they can only list him once …

Anyways: it’s still a positive sign for Curry, the only one of the four freshmen to make the two-deep at LB (however it happened) without that qualifying “OR.”

(But while I’m thinking about, a brief open letter: Dear Daren Bates: I think the world of Curry, but please don’t get hurt this week. Thanks, Jerry.)

– Aside from the Reed shenanigans, the biggest surprise on offense? No Antonio Goodwin. We might expect to see Carr and Benton behind Zachery, but Jay Wisner (OK) and Derek Winter (say wha?) behind Darvin Adams? When the next thing we hear Trooper Taylor says about Winter will be the first? If Goodwin’s this far down the pecking order, why isn’t he on the scout team?

Maybe it’s an injury thing. Or maybe it’s a “he’s only been working at the Z, but we didn’t want to leave Benton off the chart entirely” kind of thing. In any case: I’m thinking Adams, Zachery, Carr, Wisner, and Reed are the only guys we see take meaningful snaps on the outside until proven otherwise.

– Hey, “Son of” Jorrell Bostrom made the two-deep, sharing backup right guard honors with Cooper. Meaning that as much effort as Chizik and Co. made to overhaul the o-line in the offseason, we’ve still got two walk-ons on the second string. All right!

Also worth noting that rather than list Chad Slade as the third right tackle, Chizik and Co. left him off the depth chart entirely. He’s done well to avoid scout team duty, but unless both Isom and Greene share simultaneous injuries–and maybe not even then–he’s still probably headed for a redshirt.

– Despite the “OR,” Chizik has said that Ryan Shoemaker will punt against Arkansas St. No surprise there.

Photo by Van Emst.

Prepare to see a lot of this.

THE CAST

The Starters: DEs Antoine Carter (6’4″, 256, Sr.) at “quick” and Michael Goggans (6’3″, 261, Sr.) at “power”; DTs Mike Blanc (6’4″, 297, Sr.), Zach Clayton (6’3″, 296, Sr.) and/or Nick Fairley (6’5″, 298, Jr.)

The Backups: DEs Nosa Eguae (6’2″, 258, rFr.), Corey Lemonier (6’4″, 227, Fr.), Craig Sanders (6’4″, 248, Fr.); DT Kenneth Carter (6’5″, 281, Fr.)

The Wildcard: DT Jeffrey Whitaker (6’3″, 308, Fr.)

The Outside Possibilities: DEs Dee Ford (6’4″, 240, So.), Joel Bonomolo (6’3″, 245, Jr.); DTs Derrick Lykes (6’2″, 286, So.), Jamar Travis (6’0″, 288, So.)

THE BREAKDOWN

Everyone who follows college football, just about, has some rough idea of the importance of offensive line experience. And everyone who follows Auburn football has a pretty clear idea of how much experience (i.e., oodles) the 2010 Tiger offensive line has. But looking over the above depth chart … we could just about say the same for the defensive line, couldn’t we?

Start with Carter: despite the injury issues that hampered him throughout 2008 campaign and kept him on the sidelines to start 2009, he’s still already appeared in 33 games for Auburn and collected more than 20 sacks-plus-TFLs in his three-year career. Goggans has likewise seen action in every Auburn game since his redshirt year in 2006, starting 18 games since making the first team as a sophomore. Blanc, another ’06 redshirt, moved into the rotation full-time as a sophomore in 2008 and has started 17 games the last two years. Clayton, yet another redshirt out of the 2006 class, has appeared in 27 games despite missing nearly half of last year through injury; don’t forget that his 7.5 TFLs and 4.5 sacks in 2008 are the best single season of any defensive lineman on the Auburn roster. Even the young pup of the group, Fairley, is in his fourth year of collegiate football after redshirting at Copiah-Lincoln and saw action in all 13 games last season.

Five players, 18 collective years of college experience, nearly 150 combined appearances on the Plains. No, it’s not quite the Big Four offensive linemen’s 278 combined starts or whatever, but it’s impressive. Experience is not going to be a problem.

Well, not if everyone stays healthy. Because as seasoned as the first-string (and whichever DT becomes the first backup) may be, that’s exactly how un-seasoned the second string is. If we take Tracy Rocker and Gene Chizik at their word–the word that would seem to have relegated Dee Ford and Derrick Lykes to the third team, behind the true  freshmen at their respective positions–then not one member on the second team will have ever played so much as a down at Auburn. In terms of experience, it’s not so much a step down as a flying Wile E. Coyote-style leap off a cliff.

Which is why it’s so hard (for your humble Auburn Blogger, at least) to pin down expectations for this unit. There’s two distinct, separate, polar-opposite way of approaching the line’s grand canyon of experience, which I present for argument’s sake:

Auburn has the best of both worlds here. I’m not sure anyone would argue that from a raw talent standpoint, the newcomers (and sorta-second year player Fairley) have the veterans beat. For Lemonier and Whitaker to impress the way they have speaks volumes, and no one has anything negative to say yet about Sanders and Carter. Don’t forget that Eguae, though, was last year’s immediate-impact guy until he hurt himself and would be getting mentioned in the same breath if he was a true frosh instead of a redshirt. All of these guys have the chops to play and make plays when they do.

But they won’t have to, not right away, because of all the experience and potential in front of them. Maybe the presence of Goggans isn’t going to set anyone’s pulse racing after his disappointing season a year ago (all of 2.5 TFLs and one sack, if you’ll recall), but even he has owned up to his struggles and is allegedly hungrier–and better–than he was in ’09. And as for the rest of the line: Carter has always been a force when healthy and looked better than ever in his Defensive MVP performance at A-Day; Clayton, similarly, was one of Auburn’s best defenders in 2008 and by all accounts is back to full health*, turning Rocker’s head in the process; Blanc had his issues against the run but was still Auburn’s most disruptive interior lineman a year ago (6.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks), and should be both more balanced and even more disruptive with a year of Rocker’s tutelage; and Fairley, to put it simply, has gobs more pure talent than any other member of the first five.

So, Auburn gets to have its defensive line cake and eat it too, leaning heavily on an entire cadre of grizzled,  steady, been-through-the-wars veterans while keeping the young guns hungry and deploying them strategically for maximum impact. The freshmen keep the seniors fresh and sharp, the seniors keep the freshmen motivated and pressure-free. Things are going to go great.

Auburn has the worst of both worlds here. OK, so Auburn’s got a ton of experience. How much is that really worth?

Because last year, it wasn’t worth a whole heck of a lot, frankly. Despite facing more offensive plays than just about anyone and boasting the SEC’s leading TFL and sack artist, Auburn still finished middle-of-the-pack in the SEC in both sacks and TFLs; ninth in average yard-per-carry allowed and dead last in rushing touchdowns allowed; and, in a correlated indictment of the line to raise its play when it mattered, dead last in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

Certainly, a lot of that was the toxic combination of the absence of a second string combined with the quick-step tempo of Malzahn’s offense. But a lot of it was just sub-standard play from two fourth-year players in Goggans and Blanc, and even third-year man Carter at times. Between those three guys, Antonio Coleman, and Jake Ricks, last year’s front was almost as veteran as this year’s and had Coleman on the very top of his game … and they still couldn’t get the job done with any kind of consistency. One year shouldn’t make that big a difference for guys who have been around the block this many times already, should it?

And as for the freshmen, they’re awesome, but they’re freshmen, and playing a position that–like their counterparts in the trenches on the other side of the ball–doesn’t lend itself to productive early playing time. It’d be swell if guys like Eguae and Sanders and Whitaker had shown up a year earlier, but the cold hard fact is that we need legitimate options at tackle and power end and we need them now, and now isn’t when the freshmen are going to be ready. The seniors aren’t going to be good enough, and the freshmen aren’t going to be good enough yet. Things are going to be disappointing.

So … which side is closer to the truth? Like virtually all black-or-white questions, I think the answer is somewhere in the gray middle. On the glass-half-full side, there’s no reason not to expect some improvement out of the veterans, and quite possibly a lot more than “some.” There’s no telling how good Carter and Clayton could be if they stay 100 percent, Carter in particular–he looks primed to replace most-if-not-all of Coleman’s production. Blanc should get a bigger boost than anyone out of having to handle fewer snaps. Goggans knows after that last year that Rocker will bench his rear end if he doesn’t produce. And Fairley … I mean, if the light comes on a la Pat Sims and he plays to his potential, he’ll be the most dominating player on the unit.

I also wouldn’t discount the freshmen, Whitaker in particular. His job is simple: plug the hole. Eat space. Stop the push. Ricks was somewhere between adequate and decent at that job last season, but he didn’t have anything like Whitaker’s combination of strength and size; if Rocker can get his technique polished up to trust-worthy levels, pairing a pure noseguard like Whitaker with a penetrator like Blanc or Fairley could be devastating. And elsewhere, Lemonier’s drawn too much praise not to have some success as a pass-rush specialist, and Eguae and Sanders each have both the build and motor (not to mention enough time on campus) to fill in more-than-ably at power end. The kids are all right.

But are they enough to give Auburn a standout defensive line? That, I’m less sure about. I like each of them in their projected limited, do-this-one-job-for-just-a-few-plays role, but they are just freshmen, and freshmen on the defensive line at that; assigning them any heavier duty than “part of the rotation” will be asking for the same kind of gashing we saw last season. But Rocker may have no choice–as excited as we might be about Carter and Clayton, we should believe either one will make it through the season unscathed by injury when they do, and not a moment before. And I’d like to be more optimistic about Blanc and Goggans–and I am, a little bit, about Blanc, who should continue at the least to be a real threat on passing downs–but I think for the most part, they are who they are by this stage of their careers. Put it all together, and I think you’re looking at a line that just enough of that talent/experience mix to not be a weakness, but not enough talent in the truly experienced guys or experience in the truly talented guys to be a strength.

The one guy who could singlehandedly change that equation? Again, it’s Fairley. If he puts a choke-hold on a starting position and turns the flashes of brilliance we saw last season into a consistent stream of big plays, suddenly there’s enough balance and star power (between him and a healthy Carter) to turn this into the best unit on the defense. Unfortunately, though, after fall camp I can’t bring myself to expect that, since most of the buzz wound up centered on Clayton’s return, Lemonier’s and Whitaker’s arrival, Carter’s ascension, etc. The very early returns even posited Blanc and Clayton as the first-team pairing. (See below–ed.) A Fairley explosion is the thing most worth hoping for when it comes to the d-line. But it’s not something I’m expecting just yet. (UPDATE before I even get the post posted: Fairley and Clayton are your starting tackles. Tough development for Blanc, no doubt, but an encouraging sign for the line overall, as I think you have to like both Fairley’s and Clayton’s upside a lot more. Not sold yet, but it’s a good sign.)

THE PREDICTION

Carter tops double digits in TFLs, collects 8-10 sacks, and wreaks general havoc … but isn’t quite up to the McClover/Groves/Coleman terror end standard. This isn’t a problem on passing downs, as the contributions of Blanc, Lemonier, Fairley, and Clayton (and maybe even Goggans, who Rocker has again talked about sliding to tackle on pass-rush situations) should help boost Auburn into the upper third of SEC teams in sacks.

But there’s still issues against the rush, as at power end Goggans only incrementally improves while Eguae isn’t quite ready for full-time duty, and the tackles continue to occasionally get pushed around. This problem leads Rocker to work Whitaker more and more into the rotation, and by the final third of the season he, Clayton, and a suddenly-terrifying Fairley are taking most of the snaps … and providing the stoutest rush defense of Chizik’s tenure to-date.

It’s enough to make 2010 a decided improvement on 2009 … but not enough to be one of the league’s better lines, not yet.

THE UNIT’S FINAL GRADE ON AN UNNECESSARILY PRECISE FIVE-STAR SCALE

3.69 stars

Don't worry, Varez, the combination gypsy/voodoo/wraith-like enemy from the Final Fantasy series curse that's bene laid upon the Auburn basketball team has run its course by now. Surely. Surely.

I realized a little bit into my “Notes from the Beat” post that I had way, way too many links to lump any significant portion of them into that post and still it keep it at a manageable length. (Not that that’s ever been a substantial concern of mine, of course, but I do try for brevity on occasion.)

So it’s time for one final Plainslinks before we go into full-time previewin’ mode. They’re gonna come quick:

– The AJC finally gets in on the “Cam Newton’s long journey to redemption” story. Not a whole lot you haven’t heard plenty of times this offseason, but Newton’s claim that Meyer had promised he’d rotate with Tebow in a “two-quarterback system” is new. That would be after he switched over from linebacker, right, Jevan Snead?

– Ziemba and Pugh are both up for the Lombardi. It’s an honor, as they say, just to be nominated.

– It’s official: ex-Longhorn point guard Varez Ward has enrolled at Auburn and will play this season if the NCAA grants him a hardship waiver. It’s a blessing for an Auburn team in beyond-desperate need for help at the 1. Now if we can only get, oh, five more similar blessings.

– If you ever wonder why the rest of college football despises SEC fans, the first line of this braindead-on-arrival Clay Travis piece should be all the explanation you need. I swear, I’ll take the Big Ten’s occasional sanctimony and the Pac-10′s occasional ambivalence over that brand of obnoxiousness any day of the week.

– Hey, did you realize sports other than football have already started their fall seasons? Volleyball handled their Arkansas St. equivalents with ease over the weekend, while the SEC West favorite soccer team got a 2-1 win on the road. Good times.

– There’s loads and loads of precedent for a big step forward for second-year head coaches, both at Auburn and in the SEC; Track ‘Em looks at the phenomenon as it applies to the Tigers and Evan Woodbery the league as a whole. No excuse for not following in the proverbial footsteps, Gene Chizik.

– Sure PPL will have more on this, but the White Sox retired Frank Thomas’s number. Congrats to one of Auburn’s all-timers.

– Krootin’ links ahoy. We’ll start with Mike Blakely, who ran roughshod over national No. 2 Tampa Plant and mega-recruit James Wilder in an ESPN-televised game last Friday night. Check the seriously drool-inducing run (which made SportsCenter’s top plays) right hyah:

Blakely was saying all the proper non-informative things about his recruitment afterwards, calling Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina his three finalists, but the HOT RUMOR is that Auburn has moved out in front for him. Blakely’s leader has changed several times over the course of the year, of course, so grain of salt and all, but I’ll take it. (HT: AuburnEagle.)

Elsewhere, Woodbery scouts Erique Florence (and Caleb Peterson and Cameron Luper of, yes, the Luper Lupers), C.J. Uzomah is already proving himself the next Shaun Kitchens (yes, I just compared one of our commitments to a freshman who’s never taken a snap, just go with it), and Stephon Tuitt isn’t the lock to Georgia Tech he was.

– In the “in case you missed it files” from here at TWER, Thor Burk has a revealing look at Auburn’s rank in most licensed merchandise purchased (no, I wouldn’t want to wear USC or Ohio St. gear either), Dr. Jolley trash talks preseason trash talk in the way only he can, and though it’s nearly a week old now, if you still haven’t gone over the unearthed crowd shots from the 1973 Auburn-Florida game, you really should do so now.

– Elsewhere in the blAUgosphere, Kurt at Warblogle is winding down his best-at-Jordan-Hare countdown* and Rob Pate has his Arkansas St. preview up.

– And in the SEC, the first Alabama depth chart has been released; there’s a few surprises there. And at LSU, their bloggers are coming up with some clever, fascinating numbers that show their 2009 offensive line … whoa, was one of the worst of the SEC’s decade. And didn’t they lose their best guy in Ciron Black? And aren’t they coached by the same Guy Who Is Not Stacy Searels? I know I’m officially, seriously belaboring the “LSU = not that good” point, but I don’t get it. I really don’t. (Oh: Auburn’s offensive line ranked second.)