1. This is the sort of thing that would have been a lot more useful to post immediately in the wake of the UL-Monroe massacre, and apologies to anyone out there who’s already made the comparison if I’ve missed it. But when considering how much stock to put in the performance of Heavy SEC Favorite X against Bodybag Opponent Y, it’ll do to remember the following comparison:
In Week 1, Auburn faced Arkansas State. The game remained competitive late into the third quarter and finished as a 52-26 Tiger win. Auburn fans universally agreed the defensive performance was badly lacking and that their team had to make major strides to compete against the better teams on the upcoming schedule.
In Week 1, Georgia faced the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. They controlled every facet of the game from start to finish in winning 55-7. Georgia fans universally agreed that the Dawgs’ level of domination was superior even to their usual level against opponents like this, and that their new-look defense and offensive balance had them well-prepared against the better teams on the upcoming schedule.
And in Week 2, Louisiana defeated Arkansas St. 31-24.
But here we are in Week 6. Auburn is 5-0 and sitting in the top 10. Georgia is 1-4, with back-to-back losses to inferior competition, and their head coach is in imminent danger of getting the ax at season’s end.
You get the point: the ULM beatdown was nice. But it means just as much as Georgia’s beatdown of the Ragin’ Cajuns did, i.e., virtually nothing.
2. I haven’t done too much reading during my absence–more pressing matters, and all–but I’ve tried to keep up as best I can, and checking in at TeamSpeedKills I found this interesting post from Year2 on where Auburn stands after five weeks in 2010 vs. where they stood after five weeks in 2009.
It’s the sort of post I want to violently disagree with, not least because of one glaring error (Auburn most certainly did not “struggle” with Tennessee a year ago; that was a comfortable win in both the box score and the scoreboard until the Vols’ meaningless score on the final play of the game) and the general “they’re not there yet” vibe.
But the truth is … Year2 is right. The win at a charged-up Mississippi St. was solid, but it wasn’t any more impressive than bossing the Vols in Knoxville in 2009. Surviving Clemson was a big notch in the mental toughness (and “win”) column, but in the end it won’t count for a whole lot more for the resume than beating West Virginia did a year ago. Auburn didn’t have a win like South Carolina at this stage last season, but the Ole Miss victory is a workable comparsion and frankly, Auburn doesn’t yet have the kind of overpowering win over a decent opponent like the 2009 Week 2 demolition of Mississippi St.
The point: we all assume this year is different from last year because of the immense potential we see in this team. Newton at quarterback. Fairley and Co. dominating the middle of the defensive line. New weapons at receiver and running back. The same ol’-same ol’ from players like Bynes and Carter and the Big Four on the offensive line.
But Auburn hasn’t yet proven that this year is different. They haven’t done anything yet they didn’t do last season. It’s all still potential, promise, hope.
This week, of course, is the time to change that. Last year Auburn lost to Kentucky. Last year Auburn didn’t win a second SEC road game. Last year Auburn started 5-0 and lost three games in a row.
The ranking and hype and fawning Newton and Fairley praise is all very nice. But beating the ‘Cats–on the road–will be the first hard, concrete, indisputable evidence that no, this is not last year. This Auburn is not that Auburn. We think that’s the case. But it’s time to know it.
Photo by Van Emst.
Am I the only one that thinks we will assert ourselves early and often in this game– and we may not get the backups any work late– but we’ll certainly have that option?
That’s my thought. I think we see the best play yet out of our secondary, our now normally good/dominate play from the front 4- -and our offense rolls over one of the worst D’s in the SEC.
Add to that, the fact that no one is talking about our game nationally, and they beat us last year. Locke can be all ticked off, tired of losing, and yelling at folks in practice, but it isn’t going to matter. We are the better team, and we have a chip on our shoulder.
I think we put the hurt on them.
You’re harshing my buzz Jerry. You and Year2.
Yeah, I read Year2’s thing and had the same thoughts so I wanted to jump on the “OMG you’re so wrong about the UT game LULz” but he has a point. As do you.
we will whoop kentucky. wde.
Thankfully, you are not saying that this is going to be a difficult game, because that would wholly discredit you as any kind of analyst.
But I have to say that I’m disappointed, I’ve been praising this team as a national contender since the end of the Clemson game and time and time again people have said “Not yet, they haven’t proven themselves.” I can’t believe that the Auburn faithful are still so hurt by what happened the last two years that they can’t bring themselves to get a little vulnerable and have a little faith in this team. Even ESPN analysts are starting to say that we just might have two unbeatens in the Iron Bown this year (see Ivan Maisel in his ESPN U podcast for today).
I’m sorry but there are a lot of things that this team has shown this year that it did not last year. A dual threat quarterback, the ability to play well in the 4th quarter, a multi-faceted dangerous running attack.
How about this via StatTiger on the AUfamily.com forums:
http://www.aufamily.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=68568&st=0&p=690503&fromsearch=1&#entry690503
The fact is, not only is this team better than last years team, but its getting close to the level of play by the 2004 tigers.
It’s time to get on the bandwagon, if you wait to do it after Arkansas, you might as well not be watching the games.
Quit harshing my mellow, bra!
Johnny, c’mon man, did I say anything to indicate I don’t expect them to win Saturday? I’m not telling anyone not to jump on the bandwagon. I have plenty of faith, thanks. I’m just pointing out that what looks like a low-stakes trip to an SEC also-ran is actually something a lot more: Auburn’s first opportunity to really record a _result_ that they didn’t record last year. We can talk about the changes until we’re blue in the face–I think it’s as obvious as you do this is a much-improved team over last year’s–but until we start winning games we didn’t win a year ago, it’s just talk. This is one of those games. I think that makes it a damn big deal.
And for the record, if you think a road SEC game against a team with weapons like Cobb and Locke that–oh yeah–beat us last year is going to something other than difficult, I think you’re setting yourself up for some unnecessary disappointment. As I wrote a couple weeks back: no expectations this year. This is the sort of year and the sort of team you enjoy one game at a time, celebrating when they win–period–and mourning if (not when) they lose, the end.
I have a weird feeling about this game. I think there is about a 50% chance that Auburn jumps on them early with a few scores and the game is a blowout that makes the 7 point line look silly.
On the other side, if the game is not a blowout, it seems exactly like the type of game that good Auburn teams end up struggling with i.e. teams that aren’t very good but have some offensive weapons and can take advantage of mistakes when you let them hang around. (like those awful Arkansas games back when they weren’t any good against anyone but Auburn).
Overall I would say my worry level is a 3/5, not because I think an Auburn loss is likely but because I think it is possible and if it happens it will really crush my dreams of what this season could be.
Jerry, Jerry, Jerry: Reid, Reid, Reid,
Take a look at the heart of this team. Take a look at the heart of this coaching staff. Its’ beat is dynamic, changing from many syncopated to one in unison. Need I say more?
Alright, I apologize, I may have been a bit harsh. But I have to say that if Auburn plays half of a good quarter this weekend, they will still outscore Kentucky. Maybe that’s a bit of hyperbole as well. How about this, We would have to play the worst game of our season to lose this weekend. There, that’s realistic, right? Kentucky has a couple playmakers, no doubt; but so did Miss state, Clemson, and S. Carolina. Not only that but each of those teams had relatively impressive wins before playing us. Ketucky’s best is what, Louisville?
Johnny, not a problem. I just get a little sensitive when someone tells me that because I’m not projecting a 40-point win/expecting a national title/living in Alabama/ignoring soccer, I’m not as much of an Auburn fan as they are … which is where I felt like your final sentence was going.
I agree that it’ll take Auburn’s worst performance of the season for them to lose this game. But the same was true a year ago, and Auburn turned in their worst performance of the season and lost. I totally agree that this team is much better than that team, but I think Kentucky’s probably a little better with Hartline not such a waste and it’s on the road. I’ll be surprised–very surprised–if Auburn loses. But I’m not expecting it to be easy, either.
Johnny, I think everyone is taking the “they’re not there yet” attitude as a defense mechanism. At least I am. I have tried to put 2004 in my rear view mirror and I just can’t. That kind of team doesn’t come around often. A rare combination of talent and chemistry by Auburn standards. We all know they got shafted, but they are my measuring stick now. A team has to appear to me to be that good or better to win a championship. I’ve almost taken the attitude of thinking the current team is “not there yet” with an understanding that I won’t say they’ve arrived until they’ve won some kind of championship (SEC or national, and because technically until they win something they haven’t arrived). Historically Auburn plays better as an underdog than a favorite. It’s like superstisiously (bring out the spelling police) if we keep saying/think they aren’t there that they will play with the underdog mentality in spite of being a favorite. It doesn’t mean I cheer any less for them. I’m one of the few you’ll find in JH that is standing and yelling my guts out on every defensive play rather than just 3rd down. I just think that in recent years when we felt like we had a great team out there they would find a way to shoot themselves in the foot and underachieve. Now I’m just going to go stick my head back in the sand and enjoy this season. I’ll come out and celebrate a little each week, but am holding off on the champagne until they win some kind of championship. I’ll be happy with a west title, but am hoping for something greater. Maybe the Chizik era will be different from the Tubs era and by that I mean lets continue to be giant killers/contenders, but do away with the annual loss of a game we should dominate on paper (yeah, old arkansas teams that means you). And let’s face it, no matter who we beat right now the national media will downplay it and say it was a game we should have won no matter who it is until the showdown with bama. Beat kentucky…so what UF and Ole miss did too. beat Arky, so what bama did too. beat lsu, so what miles is their coach. beat ole miss…well they’re ole miss. beat UGA, so what they’ll probably have an interim coach by then…see what I mean. Sure beating all them keeps us highly ranked and that will come in handy after we turn the tide and head into the SECCG, but we still aren’t there yet! That’s life as an Auburn fan and I love it.
JohnnyAub- while this is a much improved Auburn over the previous edition, their level of play as a team is nowhere in the same ballpark as the 2004 team. This team is not good enough to take any team for granted. I hope we beat the stuffing out of the mildcats, but I’m not expecting it. After freezing my ass off last year to watch us lose the way we did, I’m going to be happy with a win tonight as long as we look sharp, minimize mistakes, and everyone comes out healthy for the stretch run.