You know, maybe it’s just one of those seasons.
You know the type. You’ve seen other teams have them. Mississippi State under Croom a few years ago, the run that got started with Brandon Cox gifting the Bulldogs a touchdown in J-Hare. Vandy in 2008, that team that seemed to burn through all the good fortune the ‘Dores had stored up over their countless years of, well, horrible fortune. To lesser extents, Tubby’s 2006 Auburn team, or Les Miles’s 2009 (and sort of 2010) LSU teams. Seasons always on the verge of disaster, always on the verge of something going horribly wrong, always riding one or two plays to their victories, where you always think “This team can’t be that good” … and you look up, and their record glitters.
Of course, most of those teams were decent-to-good teams that used that type of season to wrangle an unlikely bowl bid, or merely a New Year’s Day one, rather than a championship. What happens when a team that’s already borderline-great hits a vein of good bounces this rich?
That “said,” let me clarify a few things:
1. Unlike, say, the Vanderbilt team that got Tony Franklin fired, this Auburn team is clearly not entirely a product of luck. Cam Newton is arguably the best player in college football. The Auburn offense is operating at a lethal level even I never thought it could reach. The defense looks a shambles today, but when the offense was finding its footing against Mississippi State and Clemson, that was the unit that won those games.Auburn has been fortunate. But they also have been good. You don’t win four one-possession games and the flying circus that was yesterday’s matchup without being in position to win those games.
It’s like the Fannin touchdown; we all know he fumbled, that the official closest to the play called it a fumble, and that Auburn caught a freaking massive break that it wasn’t named a fumble after the review. But if that play happens anywhere other than the goal line, there’s not even any review. And Auburn wasn’t on the goal line by accident–they were there because they’d gotten a solid kickoff return to their own 29 and run the ball six consecutive times, including a 40-yard jaunt by Newton, down to the Hog 4. In a lot of ways, Auburn is lucky. But Auburn is also making their own luck all over the field.
2. Trust me, I’m not predicting an Ohio St.-like run to a crystal football. I think, frankly, it’s silly for anyone to name any team other than Alabama the favorite in the SEC West when they control their own destiny and get to host Auburn in what’s already shaping up as the biggest Iron Bowl in more than decade. Unless the Tide absorb a second loss, the West title goes through them.
But you know … Auburn has led a charmed life so far. The dropped pass by State. The errant Parker pass in overtime. The fumble against Carolina that dribbled out of bounds. The even-more-critical fumble against Kentucky that dribbled out of bounds. Now the friendliness of the replay official against Arkansas. As I’ve said, the other shoe will likely drop eventually … but it’s looking less and less like it’s going to drop this season. What it looks like is a season where everything just happens to go just right.
Auburn has nothing to apologize for. Because they’re worthy of being 7-0. Because sometimes these seasons just happen. That both of those statements are true means I cannot freaking wait to see what happens next week. It’s been a hell of a ride already; that we have 6 and maybe even 7 more gamedays’ worth of the ride fills me with a giddiness I can’t even describe.
Other assorted observations
— It’s funny, I mentioned after the Kentucky game that Auburn had outgained the ‘Cats by a wide margin but hadn’t actually been all that much better offensively; they just had dramatically worse field position. This week: Arkansas outgains Auburn 566-470 … but started at their own 23 on average. Thanks to Auburn’s special teams dominance and the Bynes picks, Auburn started in their own 43 on average.
So it’s not like Auburn’s offense was any worse than the Hogs. Their offensive possessions (i.e., not counting the Etheridge return) following the opening three-and-out went: touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, field goal, touchdown, punt, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, end of game.
What the hell, let’s go through that again: touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, field goal, touchdown, punt, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, end of game. Against a defense ranked in the top-20 nationally entering the game. They ran for more than 300 yards on the ground for the third consecutive SEC game.
HOLY FREAKING CRAP, MAN.
— Arkansas fans seem to be pointing to the Etheridge return as the game’s turning point, but for my money, Auburn had already regained the momentum on their previous drive. The Hogs had just scored their third straight touchdown–each seemingly more easy than the last– ot go up 43-37. We all knew that a second straight Arkansas stop would equal a fourth straight Arkansas score … and Game Over.
What happened was that Auburn got a 29-yard return from Washington and went the remaining 71 yards in 7 plays without even needing a third-down conversion. Newton made it happen, of course, hitting Burns for a first down on his best throw of the day and then connecting with Blake for the score on his second-best throw of the day.
— Griping about the defense … I mean, what’s the point? The secondary is terrible. We know they’re terrible. With Bell and Savage out, they’re going to stay terrible, though at least it’s hard to see how they can get any worse than they’ve been the past two weeks.
The only good news is that there are no more Kentuckys (did you see what Hartline did to the ‘Cocks?) or Arkansas’s on the schedule. It’s the Jarrett Lee-Jordan Jefferson tag team this week, followed by Jeremiah Masoli, followed by Aaron Murray (who admittedly might be able to do the same thing to Auburn if Bobo lets him), followed by an ever-shakier looking Greg McElroy.
The bad news is that the secondary is terrible. And that even the allegedly reliable rush defense apparently can’t actually defend runs outside the ends.
Oh well. I’m just exhausted of complaining about it. As long as Auburn’s winning, I’m not going to be able to muster the energy to do more than make a note of the facts as they are.
— It’s funny to think that the first time I heard that Auburn was recruiting Cam Newton, the laptop kid, my reaction was “we don’t need his kind of baggage.” Now I want his number retired and fully expect him to go to New York to potentially bring home our third Heisman Trophy. Go figure.
Photo by Van Emst.
AP and Coaches Polls are up and Auburn is ranked 5th in both of them. Auburn received one 1st place vote in Coaches, who wants to bet it was Tubs?
I have never seen and Auburn game quite like that one. Being there is person helped as well.
Up Note: It seemed like Neiko Thorpe stepped up his game a little bit…although not enough and definitely not in a contagious type of way.
Frustration.
Just in case anyone is wondering:
Getting out of Auburn after a huge game still sucks the life out of you.
Philip: “who wants to bet it was Tubs?”
Not me. I might be inclined to think Steve Spurrier would cast that vote. But Tubs? Nah.
It hit me this morning, a clear reflection of games viewed before. I’ve asked myself a million times “how come [team x] always get the breaks and we can never get one?” Usually [team x] goes on a championship run. The media drives the wagon and ultimately a trophy is awarded. Your Tressel photo is quite appropriate. And you’re quite right, we’re in position. War Eagle!
They do seem to be charmed this year. Actually, they remind me of the ’98 basketball team. They aren’t getting alot of respect, but they seem to find a way to win.
I have a feeling that the defense is going to start to respond. They aren’t as bad as we’ve seen the last few weeks. Hopefully, Coach Chizik starts to become more involved with the game plan defensively. We can’t keep giving receivers 10 yard cushions. Neiko Thorpe has no business being anything other than a nickel back, at best. How does he consistently get beat, and then not get his head around. The technique for the DB’s is awful, and I don’t know if it is the coaching or the players. What is bad is that the rest of the defense has been pretty good, but the secondary is trying their best to cost us a shot at a NC.
I think you’re putting just a little bit too much into luck. If they rule the Mario run a fumble, we still win by 15. If the Mississippi State pass hadn’t been dropped, it would have been the catch of the year. And if Parker hadn’t thrown wide, under pressure and fading away off his back foot, it would have been the throw of the year. And if neither of those fumbles rolled out of bounds, who’s to say that we don’t recover them?
It seems to me like it’s not so much that things has gone tremendously right, but that nothing has gone tremendously wrong yet. But, hey, I guess you can call that luck too.
“Cam Newton is arguably the best player in college football.”
Arguably, Jerry?!? ARGUABLY?!?!
With the collapse of Denard and T. Pryor, there is absolutely no one playing at Cam’s level right now.
Sadly, though, as we found out last year, they generally don’t give the Heisman to the best player…
AO, sorry man, but you’re employing some selective memory there. The State pass that Berry dropped hit him right in the hands; it maybe wasn’t a totally routine grab, but it wasn’t even what you’d call difficult, much less a “catch of the year.” Parker was rolling right and wasn’t under a lick of pressure AND he had a wide-open receiver; he just screwed it up. And while the fumbles could have gone in a totally different direction and been recovered by Auburn, both of them had UK/SC players all over them just before they squirmed out of play. (The SC guy even had his hands on it and just dropped it trying to scoop-and-score, remember?)
As I said: none of that means Auburn isn’t deserving of their record or worthy of being considered a national title contender. But it does mean, yes, they’ve been on the fortunate side.
Ryan, it would be nice if we could shift Thorpe (who I agree is really struggling) to the nickel. But Bell was already the only even halfway realistic option, and now he’s hobbled. Next in line? Chris Davis. It’s not an option.
Oh, and I do think Lolley and Thigpen have to take some of the blame for this train wreck. Their players have some deficiencies, but they have way too much experience to be playing this poorly.
JCWDE, even if Newton has emerged as the best of the dual-threat QBs, there’s still a lot of good players out there. Patrick Peterson, LaMichael James, Andrew Luck, etc. Give me another couple weeks and I’ll get there.
Still, it just feels like those weren’t standard plays that were miraculously deferred, but miraculous plays that didn’t quite happen.
But, like you say, either way there’s a little luck involved, I suppose.
i get tired of hearing people gripe about the defense too. it is nothing new. and apparently it is nothing we can’t handle, as long as we are capable of hanging 65 points. it’s like you said a few weeks ago jerry, just put away the expectations. i don’t expect our secondary to stop anyone, so it’s no surprise when they can’t. i will say there were some big time hits yesterday by our defense and special teams yesterday. so i guess that is the next best thing; if you are going to give up 15 yards, at least make them pay at the end of it.
The special teams were so much better this week.that was a key to a big victory as well.our secondary is pretty bad right now.we are still improving with each week.WAR EAGLE
I couldn’t hear the broadcast very well, so I don’t know if anything was said about it, but did anyone hear anything about Dyer? He didn’t play much, and then looked like he was limping into the end zone on his TD. Is he hurt?
OK! The gauntlet has been thrust to the ground! Arkansas and Auburn basketball teams, can you best this score this season?
Buzzy, they started out the broadcast by saying he had a knee injury and wouldn’t start. He came in early because he wanted to play so bad and Chizik said he’d let him see how he was doing. He ran one play for about 3 yards. As far as I know, he didn’t even see the field again until that touchdown play. Hopefully he can get some rest this week and come back strong next week. They said that even with the injury he wasn’t sitting out in practice and went through all the drills even if they hurt. He wanted to do something against Arkansas so bad, I guess. I’m glad he got his wish!
It’s funny to think that the best passer we’re gonna face ’till McElroy is UTC’s (formerly of UT) BJ Coleman. So, please folks, don’t go crazy if the Mocs pass for 300 yards on the Tigers in a few weeks; it won’t matter, and it’s kinda expected.
It may have been Petrino that voted us #1. Arkansas outgained us in total yards but in ypp it was pretty close (about 7.2 per team, IIRC). Odds that Newton goes to the NFL after this season?
Bothers me a bit that the only “luck” you seem to remember are the plays that could / would have benefitted our opponents. Why not think about dropped passes by our guys, balls left on the ground that allowed Kentucky and South Carolina to have short fields most of the time, etc, etc. Coaches and players know that any one play does not make a game….and throughout any game are dozens of plays that could have gone the other way and changed the outcome. Just enjoy the ride.
AUBURN IS 4TH IN THE BCS! HOLY SHIT! START KNOCKING ON ALL WOOD AROUND YOU!
Tv guys said Dyer has a bad knee-nothing more specific. Lattimore has a sprained ankle also.
Great see Dyer bust one-one of many I hope.
Great kickoff coverage was big key-TV guys were carping about their return guy being a “track athlete” that didn’t grasp the concept of running the football.
Hard to believe we got away with the Fannin fumble but the other call looked correct to me. Overall the officiating is pretty weak. Did you see the Florida field goal call?
Great to be an Auburn Tiger.
Jb
On the bright side of your luck argument is the fact that we are probably the only team around that can “out-LSU” LSU right now.
AU64 makes a great point. How many ticky-tacky at best or plain wrong at worst penaties have we seen kill our drives or extend our oppenents’? Just the Ark game on our first drive, Ziemba lets his man fall under his own momentum and gets called for dragging him down, negating a big pass. The PI call in the end zone was either 3rd or 4th down and gave Ark at least four points – maybe seven.
Against the Cocks if our fumbles happen farther down the field, it’s not as easy for them to score off of them and the game isn’t nearly as close. All three of our picks were on our own end as well – so we had a harder time capitalizing.
So what if we caught a break on Mario’s fumble yesterday. It beats the hell out of being the ones getting screwed.
J.D. — Yeah, I think was Petrino too. It just seems like something he would do, doesn’t it?
And, to rephrase your question; “Odds that Newton voluntarily misses out on next year’s game against Florida?” Slim. Very slim.
Alex, I certainly agree with your last sentence. As I said, Auburn’s got nothing to apologize for. I’m not taking anything away from them by pointing out that when you play close game after close game after close game, you have to get some breaks to win them all.
So almost by definition, Auburn’s gotten more breaks than our opponents–we’re the ones who won all those games. I mean, c’mon–yeah, the Ziemba penalty was unlucky, yeah, the Washington penalty was garbage, but compared to the two review calls that went Auburn’s way, it’s nothing, 14 points to 4. To respond to AU64, yeah, Auburn’s dropped a few balls here and there, but what ball on a final decisive drive have we dropped the way State did? We fumbled four times against Kentucky and recovered them all–that’s not fortunate? The Carolina game–yeah, our fumbles helped set up some ‘Cock scores, but Garcia’s fumbles did the same for us, right?
I know Auburn’s been on the wrong end of some breaks, too. But on the balance, we’re 4-0 in one-possession games and just won a game where Auburn received 14 points on plays that could have and arguably should have resulted in 0. There’s nothing wrong with being a little lucky–better than being good sometimes, you know.
revised expectations. I’m assuming from this point forward that we will rush for a minumum of 300 yards against everyone (yes bamas streak of no hundred yard rusher will end at the hands of cam). I’m also assuming that ANY qb will throw for 300 on us. Games will continue to be high scoring, but turnovers and penalties are the only things that can stop this offense. I’m thinking there is a chance saban voted us #1. He’d be ridiculed to vote his team first and they need us to be ranked as high as possible so that if they beat us it benefits them that much more. Bold on his part for sure and probably didn’t happen, but it makes sense in the grand scheme if you are more concerned with your team winning a championship rather than seeing a rival lose.
JD, newton may go because he is a tremendous athlete, but I think he comes back to work on his passing next year. He just isn’t there as a passer as far as the pros are concerned. tebow went first sound and newton probably would too, but he wouldn’t be a starter anywhere IMO. there are too many other pocket type QBs like mallet and kellen moore. he would be a wildcat back. I think he has too much pride to just accept that role without taking advantage of a chance to return to college with the great receivers we have and practice his throwing. hopefully our coaches will have that discussion with him in february. only downside is potential injury and new offensive line.
For those speculating about players leaving early… keep in mind there are NFL labor issues right now (lockout, etc.)… Mind you many of these guys don’t necessarily listen too well when they are deciding (who would with all that dough being waved at you), but I don’t think its a slam dunk that some of our top juniors bolt for the NFL after this season.
Of course, that also holds true for our rivals as well…
Hypothesis: Our new “trap game” is Georgia. Auburn with BCS aims facing a UGA team that got written off after early struggles with a young QB who probably has more talent than he’s shown so far. We’ve seen this story before. AJ Green vs. our secondary that was weak to begin with and is accumulating injuries?
I hope Dyer recovers quickly…
Just made this Dyer tee: http://www.zazzle.com/dyer_for_hire_tshirt-235700949376900073?group=mens&lifestyle=classic&rf=238099417867520450
@Dave, Murray looks a loooooot better than Stafford ever did. He is pretty athletic in his own right. UGA’s o-line and run game isn’t that great, but it may not have to be.
Of course, LSU is probably the first “trap game” that we have to deal with.
Jerry – I don’t think Auburn winning these close games neccessarily means that they have gotten more of the breaks. Maybe it just means the Tigers are overcoming the ones opponents have been getting.
We’ve all been saying for weeks that, statistically, none of the wins up unitl Arkansas were nearly as close as score. That tells me that opponents have been getting more breaks to even be competitive at the end.
AND I know it’s no certainty, but considering the Tigers punted a total of TWICE on the day, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb to suggest that the Ziemba holding call cost Auburn a TD. So that’s 11 points to either 14 or 7 — not 100% sold on Arkansas fumble being incorrect.
All that said, I may be totally full of shit.
Alex, that’s a good point about the Ziemba flag. And that Auburn has been more dominant in the box score than the scoreboard suggests. I dunno–I just think Auburn’s gotten more of the BIG breaks than our opponents. But it’s just my opinion.
There was an Arkansas player in the way of the only good replay shot, thats why the Fannin fumble wasn’t overturned. It was inconclusive. I felt like I was the only person in the stadium that saw him fumble that ball, everyone around me is going nuts and I’m doing the facepalm.
I, for one, welcome Auburn’s experiment to see if a championship can be won with offense and special teams, alone.
Arkansas doesn’t matter, penalty luck doesn’t matter. Scheming for LSU matters.
We need to figure out how to beat LSU, nothing else matters.
LSU has a very good defense. They will be punishing on Onterio…Dyer is hurt…Fannin fumbles. Cam needs to hit Darvin and Blake and where has Zachary been? we need some plays form these guys. Don’t do another Kodi pass…but DO keep throwing him the ball and it is fine to let Kodi run one on a trick play.
i don’t see newton going pro because of that old cliched “pocket passer” argument. he certainly has the size and arm of an nfl qb, but he only had 14 pass attempts saturday, and our pass plays are either 1-and-scramble or some kind of underneath throw/screen. 89EETiger brings up an interesting point with the potential nfl lockout, so all the talented juniors might as well stay another season. plus, you can genuinely tell cam loves it here. he stood up on the wall around the stadium and blew kisses into the student section after the game saturday.
weagle251…they say defense wins championships, but you’re right we may break the mold on that one! still a long way to go though
With the season he’s having, the likelihood he’s a Heisman winner (or just finalist), the fact his entire offensive line will have to be replaced, and the almost 99% chance his offensive coordinator is gonna be somebody’s headcoach next year, I think it’s safe to say our golden boy Cam Newton is as good as gone…so we better win it all this year or it might never happen.
His size and raw ability make him a 1st rounder. Josh Freeman and JaMarcus Russell (yes his bust status isn’t lost on me) are proof that someone will fall in love with him (probably the Raiders) and take Cam high. He’s so gone.
We need some discussion like I heard on Trackem tigers about how since Mosley plugged into the line we have been even more unstoppable running the ball. Cam is Cam, but he didn’t have numbers like this at Blinn. Not enough good blockers, is my guess. So yeah we lose a bunch of the line BUT there’s some pretty talented juco guys in the bullpen (and we could always target a couple more this year), and some really highly regarded recruits from this class will be RFr, so our fall off next year may not be as big as you think. We may be more of a passing team next year, though, but hey: DARVIN FOR HEISMAN.
Some great analysis here. The fumbles worry be because we keep putting it on the turf, and eventually they will come back to bite. Still, like we have said, we keep winning, so that is all that matters. Even a loss to LSU does not necessarily keep us out of Atlanta for the Title Game. This is going to be an exciting finish!