Hi, I'm Clint Moseley. You should perhaps learn to recognize me.
And so Tyrik Rollison has moved on, and we all remind ourselves to quit salivating over high school players who may or may not ever see the field at Auburn*.
Except for the kids in this 2010 class Chizik and Co. just signed, of course. Those guys are going to kick all kind of ass.
But getting away from the impact of Rollison’s decision on our future recruit-drooling, it’s time to look at its impact on the Auburn quarterback position. Rollison probably wasn’t going to make a major move in this year’s derby, but his departure definitely shuffles things around going forward. So taking it year-by-year:
2010: Cam Newton was the consensus favorite before Rollison’s decision and obviously he’s even more the consensus favorite now. Most Auburn fans saw Neil Caudle as the leading non-Newton option–for good reason–after he won the backup job and looked competent while Rollison redshirted and got himself suspended for the Outback Bowl. But I don’t think there’s much doubt that Rollison was the only entrant in the Auburn QB battle who could begin to match Newton’s athleticism. Before, Newton had to worry about throwing well enough to keep pace with Caudle and fitting into the running game well enough to hold off Rollison. Now? If Malzahn wants an out-and-out running threat at QB, Newton’s the only choice. (Caudle’s better off here than the last couple of pocket-passer Auburn starters, as he showed against Ball St., but no way he was keeping up with Rollison or Newton in that department.)
So the path for Newton looks clearer than ever. But unlike a lot of you out there, I don’t think it’s a slam dunk, and I don’t think the entire season hinges on Newton’s ability to complete the necessary passes. Because last season we saw that Malzahn’s offense can work just fine without a major running threat under behind center, as long as the QB in question has the arm to make the throws and understands the system well enough to make the calls he’s got to make. If Chris Todd and Chris Todd’s trick shoulder could manage that in a year, I have zero doubt Neil Caudle could over the course of two.
I’ll agree that for Auburn’s offense to hit its maximum scoreboard-scorching potential, yes, Newton will have to prove he’s more than just–to borrow Terrell Zachery’s Twitter term–a beast. He’s also got be accurate, be smart, be safe. If he can be all those things, he’ll still be 6-6 and able to flatten linebackers and blow past safeties, and he’ll be the starting quarterback. But if he can’t, Neil Caudle can, and that’ll be just fine, too.
2011: With Caudle having finally exhausted his eligibility, there’s really only two scenarios in which Newton isn’t the starter come the 2011 opener:
1. He’s injured
2. He’s injured or ineffective during the 2010 season, Barrett Trotter or Clint Moseley usurp Caudle to earn playing time, and subsequently blow the hell up
You can’t rule either of those two scenarios out, but neither seems to be the likely outcome, either. With a year of acclimation already under his belt and his immense physical gifts, the smart money has to be on Newton. But one of Moseley or Trotter will ascend to the backup’s role for the first time, and after that …
2012: … is where Rollison’s departure really makes things interesting. His recruiting hype and snug fit for the spread made him the early-early favorite as soon as Newton departed, but now the options are likely as follows:
– Trotter as a largely unproven senior
– Moseley as a largely unproven junior
– Quarterback recruit X as a redshirt freshman
I wouldn’t dismiss that third option out of hand. Auburn’s already gotten the attention of three of the highest-profile quarterbacks in the class of 2011–Jeff Driskel, Kiehl Frazier, and C.J. Uzomah–and it’s certainly possible that any of the three might be ready to take over after a year of preparation.
But at the same time, I’ve got too much respect for Trotter’s and–especially– Moseley’s potential to doom them to an entire career of second-stringerdom. Both have drawn raves for their practice output and work ethic–Trotter more from the Tubby staff who almost burned his redshirt, Moseley maybe a shade more from Malzahn after his perch at the head of the scout team–and both will have a golden opportunity to cement themselves as the starter heading into this season. It would be a hell of an achievement for either, given that Auburn was the only SEC school to offer either–and the waaaaaaay too early bet here is that whichever QB wins the right to back up Newton in ’11 is your starter come 2012.
I won’t project any further than that–projecting 2012 is, honestly, way more fun than it is useful already–but that this scenario is in play should tell you that spring camp isn’t just about Newton vs. Caudle. It’s about Trotter and Moseley too, about the two of them setting up a pecking order for the years to come, about showing Auburn’s coaches that a shot will be deserved, maybe sooner rather than later.
Auburn’s quarterbacks were the No. 1 story heading into spring 2008 after the departure of Cox, they were again last year after the Burns/Todd waffling, and whaddya know, they are again this year. But when there’s this much going on and this much to be decided, there’s no position battle more interesting or important for Auburn’s football program, is there?
*Actually, the lesson here is probably just to pay more attention to red flags like “We stole him from Kansas St. and Baylor” and “Clearly enjoys being a Facebook celebrity a little more than is best for him.” I of course wish Rollis0n the best at Sam Houston and don’t regret being so bullish on his chances last summer–if he’d kept to the straight and narrow, I still think he’s got the physical gifts to have been something special in Malzahn’s offense–but rest assured I’m looking at the next kid with glittering ratings and a total lack of commensurate offers with a lot more skepticism.
That’s all for today, by the way. Enjoy your weekend. Go U.S.A!
Good analysis on Tyrik. I wish him well at SH but was more surprised by where he intends to go than the fact he is leaving. Considering that he could probably transfer to about any Div II school that interested him, I’m surprised with the apparent decision. Might not be his final choice however….I bet his phone has been ringing off the hook the past two days. Part 2 of the saga may involve a better known school.
What about option 3? Newton breaks all kinds of SEC and NCAA quarterback records in 2010 and declares for the 2011 draft?
JD, after I wrote that, I wondered if I ought to include that … but spread QBs have an extremely low early-departure rate and Newton would be bolting after only one productive year. It’s hard for me to see that happening.
I have very little doubt Caudle could be effective. With a full year in the system as well as more than adequate mobility, maybe even more effective than Todd was.
But if Neil turns out to be the starter, then this whole Newton experiemnt would turn out to be a really bad move — ESPECIALLY if it was the straw that broke Tyrik’s back.
Wow, Alex P, that’s a really good point.
Newton better be pretty productive in his two years, because we gave up fours years of Rollison in exchange for them.
Before, Newton had to worry about throwing well enough to keep pace with Caudle and fitting into the running game well enough to hold off Rollison.
Caudle isn’t really good at throwing. Rollison isn’t exactly a running QB.
Rollison was probably miscategorized as a dual threat. He threw a LOT of passes, and had very high completion rate. He was 315 / 428 for 4728 yards, or 295.5 ypg. Completion rate of .736. He threw for 51 TDs and had 15 interceptions.
Rollison was the 2nd most accurate PASSER of that class. He did rush for .. I think .. 400 odd yards.
I was impressed with Rollison’s passing skills and accuracy (albeit high school). Not really impressed with Newton’s passing skills… yet.
JD, What about option 4?
Newton kills it in 2010, comes back in 2011 and wins his second straight national championship before declaring for the 2012 draft?
you gotta keep your options open
Well look at the Div 1 schools in proximity to SHSt; Texas A&M, U of Houston, Baylor and to a lesser extent, Rice (yeah he wouldn’t get into this school but anyway). Three of the four schools listed run a spread and particularly a spread that favors a quarterback like Rollison. Closer to his hometown are SMU and UNT but playing in Huntsville might give him a better shot at some Big 12 schools…
Phillip….problem is, if he goes BCS-Div I he will have to sit out a year….by going Div II he can play right away and there are some good Div II schools around…better than SH…that could use a QB with his talent.
All true but maybe he wants to be closer to home or maybe this was the best he could get from an academic entry stand point. Who knows, kids are weird…
AubOrange,
Well we gave up three years of Rollison anyway. I never thought any of the youngsters had had a realistic chance of beating out Caudle. He got too many snaps last year and I think people discount that experience much more than coaches do.
Jerry- while in theory I agree with yor assessment of Cam’s chances of going pro being low, there is a new reality that must be considered. I’m talking about the apparent move by both the NFL owners and NFLPA to institute some sort of rookie salary cap similar to what the NBA uses. Given that liklihood, I’d expect most every underclassmen with legit early round draft potential to bolt for the NFL this year in order to avoid that cap in 2011.
Why didn’t you include Robert Cooper in your analysis?
Alex P –
Yeah, I agree. I’m just saying, to your point, that as far as overall assets go, including backing-up, if indeed it was Cam’s arrival that forced Tyrik out, then we’re gonna need to get twice as much value out of Cam’s two years than Tyrik’s four.
Now, somehow, there’s even MORE pressure on Newton.
I don’t think the “we better get 2 good years out of Newton because we somehow did something to push Rollison out” argument holds much water. Dude was already in the doghouse for various reasons, with the most outstanding being the fact he couldn’t make his grades. And we all knew this was going to be an issue when we saw what the offer sheet consisted of for the #1 or 2 or whatever dual-threat QB he was in his class. I wanted to be optimistic like everybody else, but I always had that gnawing feeling due to one thing – college academics are pretty darn tough. An it’s light years harder than high school so if you’re not cutting it there, you are really going to struggle at a university. I busted my asteroid at Auburn and was thrilled to get out of there with a C+ average. That’s partially skewed due to a particularly disatrous first quarter (life lesson – don’t live with somebody who is not in school when you are going to school), but still. And that’s without the 40 additional hours a week devoted to being a part of big time D-1 football. I know those kids probably get some help and breaks that the ordinary student doesn’t get, but it’s still VERY impressive to see that these kids can devote that much time to something and still keep up their academics and graduate. So it just seems to me that Rollison’s mess was of his own doing and maybe to a lesser extent our staff for not advising him towards going the prep school route to get him more prepared for big time academics/athletics. But as they say, them’s the breaks. I wish him the best wherever he goes.
Regardless of why exactly Rollison left — and I do think that Newton’s arrival was a contributing factor, seeing as you don’t make decisions like packing up and moving and transferring halfway across the country because of one or two things — the fact remains that now that he’s gone Auburn is going to need more out of each quarterback left, especially the heir-apparent Cam Newton.
Sam Houston State University is Div1aa and plays in the Southland conference. What is Div1aa called these days? Football Championship series? But Div II it is not. They were 5-6 last year so not the best Div1AA football around. Not sure why AU fans think it is Div II but I have seen many references to Tyrik going to DivII to play right away. I do no know the rule for transferring to a Div1aa school. anyone know?
Swifty, he won’t have to sit out a year in transferring to an FCS school. I know how you feel on the semantics issue, I’ve grown up a huge Georgia Southern Eagles fan, so I’ve dealt with the “Div 1-AA/Div 2″ issue for a while. If you’re transferring down a division (which the FBS to FCS move is considered as), you do not have to sit out a year. A lateral transfer to a school in your division or a transfer UP does involve sitting out. The only loop hole that I know of in this is that a transfer from a scholarship FCS school (like GSU, or SHSU) to a non-scholarship FCS school (such as the Patriot League schools) does not involve sitting out a year.
Thanks for the info Walt.
Is the QB position any more up in the air this year than it was 10 or 15 or 30 years ago, or is it just that there is access to so much more info about the prospects and so many opinions to go around? Isn’t the coach or coordinator going to make the choice regardless?
Recruiting and signing Newton in the first place was the writing on the wall for everyone involved. Rollison may have felt he could contribute just like the other 09 freshmen, but we all know about QB pecking orders. I don’t believe 4 years at an FCS school will make Rollison NFL ready, because he had as good a shot at #2 as any of the others. Whatever he did to be suspended must have been below board, because SHSt. is NOT the answer…