We’ve already done a bit of charting regarding the expectations of 2010 Auburn from the national media … namely, that there may not be a whole lot of expectations. Even if you’re a pundit who believes the Tigers will be the fifth-best team in the SEC and “have a chance to make a run at nine or 10 wins”, you probably are also high on Arkansas and thus believe will finish fourth in their own division.
Rationally speaking, this isn’t exactly crazy talk. As we know: Auburn’s replacing both their quarterback and star tailback, their best player on defense, one tackle on either side of the ball, and our best cover corner. The second unit won’t be the disaster area it was in ’09, but it will still be laden with freshmen, first-year JUCOs, or less-than-reliable vets. Auburn’s division will include the defending national champions, an LSU team that still ranks amongst the most purely talented in the country, and the preseason darling Hogs. Fourth in the SEC West makes a lot of sense from this far out, actually.
Unless you talk to an Auburn fan, of course. Jay Coulter debuted some very-early SEC predictions at Track’Em last week, predictions that have Auburn second in the west:
2. Auburn – With Chris Todd and Ben Tate graduating, there will be plenty of question marks heading into fall camp. Should transfer quarterback Cam Newton live up to his billing, Auburn has a chance to put up Playstation like numbers on offense. Look for Trooper Taylor’s wide receivers to be much improved with more playmakers than a year ago. Don’t underestimate defensive coordinator Ted Roof. Sure the numbers looked bad on paper defensively last year, but when you look at the talent on the field, you realize he did a pretty solid job.
“OK, but what’s your point?” I hear you ask. “A team’s fans and bloggers are always going to be ridiculously more optimistic than neutral observers.” Which is true. But what about the team’s beat writers? Like, say, Phillip Marshall? They should be a little more balanced, right?
2. Auburn. If Cam Newton or someone else comes through at quarterback, the offense could break records. The defense should be much improved. If the Iron Bowl was in Auburn, I might have put the Tigers first.
No, P-Marsh is never going to be mistaken for someone with a total lack of bias where Auburn is concerned. But still: I think it’s fair to say that both Auburn’s fans and the people close to the team are awful bullish on the Tigers’ chances. Your humble Auburn Blogger, I should go ahead and make clear, is no exception; I’m far from being ready to make any kind of official prediction, but between a cushy schedule and the juggernaut of an offense we could see if Newton lives up to the hype, I know I’m not going to have them in fourth.
I think this might represent a bit of a change from years past. For the most part, I don’t think Auburn’s fan/writer expectations have been all that different from the national perception; we expected big things in 2003, 2006, and 2008 that didn’t materialize, but everyone else expected big things from those Auburn teams, too. Save for a few outliers, I’d argue the majority of Auburn fans agreed with the broad expectations of a top-20 finish–but nothing spectacular– in 2004 and 2005. Maybe Auburn fans were a little over enthusiastic about the 2007 squad–yours truly predicted a 10-2 season, like the smart, smart person I am–but I still don’t think there was anyone predicting a divisional title, and it’s not like that season was a 2008-esque disaster.
That brings us to 2009, where I think the consensus of Auburn fans–7 or 8 wins–was probably a shade more optimistic than the general consensus. But unlike ’07, it turned out that it was the Auburn people who were right.
So this is something to track, something to keep us busy between now and the start of the season 67 years away: what’s generally expected from Auburn? What’s expected from Auburn fans and writers? Are those expectations good or bad for Auburn? Whose expectations should we treat as more accurate?
Lots of time to get those questions answered. But I think they’re questions worth asking.
It’s worth noting that the “general concensus” in the 2008 preseason (as noted in the Media Days straw poll) was that AU was the clear favorite to win the West. That says more about the collective knucklehead count among SEC beat writers than anything else, but…
Always better to have modest expectations from the national media. Unless, of course, the top 2 teams live up to preseason expectations and you have to climb double digit spots to number 3 and can’t crack the top 2, a la 2004. I guess the best case scenario is to have high expectations and actually live up to them.
that has to be the best cover of Great Expectations EVER.
Will, ya, if I’m not mistaken this year’s Bama team became the first media choice to win the West in like a decade. There’s not much of a track record there.
Luke, that’s the best-case scenario, but Auburn’s never shown any kind of ability to make it a realistic one. I want the lowest expectations possible, plzkthx.
Todd, there’s a reason that’s the one I threw up there. Totally agree.
We seem to do better when there is little “National” expectations placed on the team, but where there is subtle fan optimism. I would say that this year is a classic example of this. I think the tigers take another step forard and reach the 10-win mark.
I am both excited and extremely wary of 2010 — and it all comes back to Newton. If he comes through, this could be an unbelieveable year. If he struggles it could be very “meh.”
I can’t remember the last Auburn team I was so excited about so early. There are so many questions but it feels like we have good answers, and not the delusional kind.
Dave,
Sorry but that struck me funny. Does anyone ever actually know they are dilusional at the time?
There are certainly a lot of story lines to follow this spring. Can’t wait for practice to get going!
Alex P,
I hear ya but I guess what I mean is I think there’s an objective difference between “Tony Franklin will save us all” and “Malzahn + Newton seems likely to succeed.”
I agree with Alex — this season comes down to Newton. (No pressure or anything, Cam). I just hope he’s as good as I hope he is (I hope you know what I mean).
____I’m nolding off on the Playstation predictions, till I see the A-Day game. I’m not looking for big yards and such as that. No, I’m looking to see who can throw a screen or an out. Who can throw the ball down the field without firing into coverage. Can they set their feet? Little things like that. I was mighty discouraged after last year’s A-Day game, and if not for the development of Chris Todd, I think we might have finished last in the West. The Gus Bus will fail utterly, if we can’t get the ball to the receivers reliably.
____The good news is that I think both Newton and Caudle will be ok at this, if not great. The younger QBs are wildcards. I haven’t seen them throw at a college defense.