Can’t help myself: a first look at the 2010 offense

Is it finally Neil Caudle time after all these years?

Is it finally Neil Caudle time after all these years?

It’s been a kind of recurring theme amongst Auburn fans since the moment Jordan-Hare emptied itself out last Friday: Man, can’t wait for 2010. Can’t wait for next year.

This is because waiting for next year is going to prove very difficult indeed, even for expectations-dousing rationalists like your humble Auburn Blogger. Auburn will be in their second year with their current coaching staff, the transitional speedbumps of ’09 behind them; the depth issues that required our defense to utterly exhaust itself over the course of 11 weeks and helped lead to repeated breakdowns in special teams coverage won’t be solved, but they won’t be nearly as severe, either; and of course all of Auburn’s returning players will be a year older, a year more experienced, and a year better.

So no, I can’t wait either. And I’ve decided that, you know what, screw it: even though we’ve got 10 freaking months before the 2010 season kicks off and a bowl to worry about–an awesome, totally-deserved New Year’s Day bowl at that!–I’m going to take a quick n’ dirty unit-by-unit look at the 2010 lineup, and take a mostly-uneducated guess at whether we can expect to see better or worse production from that position.

Offense here, defense later.

QUARTERBACK

Losses: Chris Todd

Returnees: Neil Caudle, Tyrik Rollison, Barrett Trotter, Clint Moseley

Outlook: Before the season, I’d have wagered a relatively substantial sum of money on Rollison going into 2010 as the starter. He seemed (and still seems) like such a perfect fit for Malzahn’s offense–the accuracy, the athleticism, the raw arm strength–that with a year’s worth of seasoning, it was tough to see how he wouldn’t get the nod over a career disappointment like Caudle.

But then, of course, we actually got to see Caudle play this season, and aside from that one (admittedly serious) misstep against Ball St., he looked … well, capable at the very least. Maybe even good. The zone read touchdown against BSU? That picture-perfect throw between the linebacker and the corner along the sideline against Furman? The calmness with which he led that garbage-time TD drive against LSU? They don’t mean a whole heck of a lot, but I’d like to think they meant something. And so now, yeah, maybe we’re still talking about a disappointing career for Caudle … but we’re also talking about a highly-recruited fifth-year senior with a legitimate arm, some ability to run, and a year’s worth of experience in the system already under his belt.

Then there’s the wild cards: Moseley doesn’t have Rollison’s recruiting hype but the reviews from the scout team have been overwhelmingly positive, and he too is built for the job from an athletic standpoint. Trotter will have some ground to make up after his ACL injury but his alleged accuracy has to be a big selling point for Malzahn if he’s healthy.

The bottom line is that whoever takes over the position, they’re going to be more mobile, more athletic, and very likely stronger-armed than Todd. Matching Todd’s accuracy and decision-making won’t be easy, but then again, that accuracy and decision-making tailed off at the end of the year and whoever takes over will also have the advantage of having played in the system for longer than just fall practice. The guess here is that either Rollison or Caudle wins the position and–with the bounty of help available on the line and the other skill positions–actually improves on Todd’s numbers from this year.

Production Level: Up

RUNNING BACK

Losses: Ben Tate

Returnees: Mario Fannin, Eric Smith, Onterio McCalebb, Dontae Aycock, Anthony Gulley (?)

Possible impact newcomers: Michael Dyer, others (?)

Outlook: On the one hand, you look at what Ben Tate has accomplished this season and how damn good he’s been, and you think there’s no way Auburn can match what they got out of their running backs this year.

But then on the other, consider the following:

– Next year’s top back will run behind an even more experienced line with even more experience in the Spread Eagle 2.0.

– Onterio McCalebb, fingers crossed, will not miss big chunks of the season through injury

– We didn’t see Tate coming. Curtis Luper and the offense combined to create the kind of back we hadn’t seen him be before. Who’s to say Luper can’t do it again with Fannin–who’s shown more physical potential already, frankly, than Tate ever showed entering this season–or Dyer or someone else?

That last point is especially valid, I think, when you consider how many bullets are in the chamber for Auburn here. Maybe Fannin stays at H-back. Maybe McCalebb gets hurt again. Maybe Dyer isn’t quite that good. Auburn would still have Eric Smith, whose shown the kind of flashes that make you think he could carr ythe load if he had to, and a prize recruit on Dontae Aycock whose blend of speed and power should fit the offense beautifully.

So, yeah, with this much raw material to work with, I can’t see Luper not finding someone to fill Tates shoes … and if McCalebb stays healthy, watch out.

Production Level: Even at the very least

RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Losses: Tommy Trott

Returnees of note: Darvin Adams, Terrell Zachery, Tim Hawthorne, Quindarius Carr, Emory Blake, Deangelo Benton, Travante Stallworth, Philip Lutzenkirchen

Possible impact newcomers: Trovon Reed, Antonio Goodwin (?), Shaun Kitchens, Jeremy Richardson

Outlook: Auburn will miss Trott’s commitment to blocking on the edge and will likely need Lutzenkirchen to take a step forward in that department.

Other than that, it’s imposible to see how Auburn takes a step back in any aspect of this unit. Everyone who caught a pass this year returns, the studs of the 2009 class have a year under their belts (nice to see Blake fight his way into the rotation there at the end of the season, huh?), and Trooper will have an even more highly-regarded set of freshmen to throw into the mix. At tight end, Lutzenkirchen’s receiving skills are probably already on par with Trott’s; no drop-off there.

In short: nothing but good news here.

Production Level: Up

OFFENSIVE LINE

Losses: Andrew McCain

Returnees: Lee Ziemba, Mike Berry, Ryan Pugh, Byron Isom, the entire second-string

Possible impact newcomers: JUCO lineman TBD (?), Ed Christian, Shon Coleman (?)

Outlook: Don’t have time to add up all the starts today, but with Ziemba and Pugh four-year starters and Berry and Isom three-year vets, I’ll be surprised if Auburn doesn’t enter next year with the most experienced offensive line in the country.

Replacing McCain is a drag … but the other four guys should be able to give the fifth guy plenty of slack, and it’s not like McCain has any better of a resume entering this season than any of his potential replacements will have entering 2010. (If Bart Eddins can move to tackle, the replacement would have more of a resume, actually.) Toss in the fact that the second string will have loads more experience than this years and a lot more help from the incoming class, and there’s no reason in the world other than “sometimes lines don’t meet expectations” to think Auburn won’t have one of the best lines in the SEC next season.

Production Level: Up

WILDCAT OPERATOR-SLASH-RECEIVER-SLASH-TRICK PLAY QB

Losses: none

Returnees: Kodi Burns

Outlook: Burns will be back to do all the things he does, and will presumably do them even better after not having spent the spring and part of fall camp taking his final shot at quarterback.

The caveat here is that the Wildcat has lost a ton of its novelty and may not be as big a part of Malzahn’s plans going forward, but Burns’s contributions should increase anyway thanks to an increasing level of comfort at wideout and better execution of the Wildcat when Auburn does turn to it.

Production Level: Even, at least

OVERALL

It’s pretty simple, really: Auburn’s offense projects to return everyone from the entire two-deep except for one (not-quite-impact) tackle, one running back–still arguably the deepest position on Auburn’s entire roster–and the starting quarterback. And every one of those players, unlike this year, will already have a year’s worth of experience in Malzahn’s system and Malzahn will have a year’s worth of experience with them.

Stipulated: a thousand things could change between now and next fall. But unless one of those things is “Gus Malzahn leaves” or the new quarterback fails and fails hard–and here’s where I point out that there’s precisely zero precedent for that in Malzahn’s extensive track record, and that the precedent is instead that the new quarterback will exceed all expectations–Auburn’s offense should be capable of taking a major step forward next year.

Like I said: can’t wait.

23 Responses for “Can’t help myself: a first look at the 2010 offense”

  1. sullivan013 says:

    Kodi Burns? How could you miss his contributions either at QB/Wildcat or WR/marble-model-of-everything-AUsome?

    You’re slipping Jerry

    Sullivan013

  2. beermotor says:

    Didn’t Mitch Mustain lay a huge egg in the first game in 2006? So, a not quite zero chance of the new QB failing hard, heh.

  3. easyedwin says:

    JH,
    Please explain Kodi Burns releventsy.

  4. Marmot says:

    You failed to mention Travante Stallworth, who was clearly a factor in the WR rotation until his injury.

    Auburn will be in the odd position next year of having very young and inexperienced skill players (other than the core of our receiver rotation), but an extremely experienced line. One might be tempted to write 2010 off as a rebuilding year since it represents the beginning of a new era of on-the-field talent, but the experience we will have on the line requires that Auburn try to make something happen now.

  5. Jonesy says:

    beermotor:

    Mustain didn’t start that game against USC. He came in in relief and led a scoring drive if memory serves.

    However, I will allow that Mustain had nothing to do with that Hog team winning so many games.

  6. WarBlogEagle says:

    Stallworth I had under RBs, then deleted, then forgot to re-add to receivers.

    Burns I totally brain-farted on. Gimme a sec.

  7. J.D. says:

    beermotor -

    Malzahn was the OC of that Arkansas team by title only. He was essentially running Houston Nutt’s bland offense.

    Jerry -

    Good news! The 2010 season isn’t 10 months away, but actually only 9 months away!

  8. Alex P in Smyrna G says:

    Let’s enjoy this post while we can, because the defensive version should be tough to look at.

  9. J.M. says:

    After thinking about it for hundreds and hundreds of seconds, I’m pretty sure my favorite anagram for “Philip Lutzenkirchen” is “Enrich The Ill Zip Punk.”

  10. jrsuicide says:

    Caudle is not gonna be the QB next year. dude barely beat out a true freshman for the backup spot and that’s only cuz Trotter was hurt and they didn’t wanna burn Rollison’s redshirt. it’s gonna be between Rollison and Trotter.

  11. pawpaw4au says:

    We need some stopping power. What about the defense for 2010?

  12. Beef says:

    How could two comments go by without recognizing that terrific anagram? Diez y ocho por viente, J.M.

  13. Alex P in Smyrna G says:

    Suicide,

    I don’t know. Caudle sure looked good enough to me. That long scamper to the end zone showed that he has the foot skills to run some things Gus couldn’t with Todd. And although he has a lack of game time, senior maturity should play a huge role.

    From what I gather (admitedly that isn’t much), he is exactly the “type” QB Malzahn wants: Good arm, some size, and some manuverability. This offense isn’t built for the sniper-accurate-but-stationary Mannings/Bradys nor the not-so-accurate-but-mobile-as-hell Vicks/Nesbitts. It’s built for the jack of all trades who can do both reasonably well, but with the savy to correctly decide which to do when on a regular basis. That criteria says ’5th year senior > RS frosh’ all day long.

    That said, Rollison’s raw athleticism may get him the nod eventually, but Caudle has to be the leader going into the spring. One of the youngsters will be #2 and handle mop ups in 2010 in preperation for 2011.

  14. Mpg says:

    QB is my biggest worry. This will basically be our 3rd straight season a new QB. i relize Todd played last year, but he might as well have been a completely different person this year. I really don’t understand why Auburn had such a hard time picking and developing QBs. maybe that cycle has ended with this new staff.

    Malzahn need to visit with Texas Tech and take some notes on how Leach works his QBs in practice. I think Smart Football did an article about their drills and i don’t see why you would work your QB receiver drills any other way.

  15. Anubis647 says:

    …Aaaaaaaaad Rollison gets suspended from the team.

    Figures.

  16. jrsuicide says:

    yeah, just read tha too. kids gotta learn how to pass drug tests (total speculation…but that’s usually what “team rules” means)

  17. Amorak says:

    Link to the Rollison suspension: http://blog.al.com/goldmine/2009/12/auburn_suspends_tyrik_rollison.html

    Tough break. Who knows how long it’ll last … he could still be QB next season if he gets his act together.

  18. tiger7_88 says:

    Personally, I hope we see someone faster and better suited for the “Wildcat” position than Kodi next year. Stallworth? Gulley? Trovon Reed? I believe Gulley and Reed or maybe even all three were QB’s in high school. From the productivity level of the Kodi-Wildcat in the last 2/3′s of the season, I would have to say that the SEC seems to have it figured out.

  19. Jonesy says:

    I don’t think Gulley was, but Stallworth, Aycock, Reed, and Fannin were all HS QBs

  20. audashdriver says:

    Why not Fannin at wildcat, was he not a qb in hi school?
    I’ll take Caudle any day over the rest of group. Decent arm, more reps with next years starters, and yes the wheels he showed against bsu, he had a better 40 time than Burns.

  21. WarBlogEagle says:

    Personally, I’d be fine with Fannin or Aycock at Wildcat QB, but there’s something to be said with putting a guy there whose passing ability a) defenses have to respect b) can lead to some huge plays if the defense doesn’t respect it.

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