On the line on Saturday.
Updating last week’s effort:
CURRENT SEC PECKING ORDER
1a. Florida. 9-0 (7-0), remaining schedule: @South Carolina, vs. FIU, vs. Florida St.
1b. Alabama. 9-0 (6-0): @Miss. St., vs. Chattanooga, @Auburn.
3. LSU. 7-2 (4-2): vs. La. Tech, @Ole Miss, vs. Arkansas.
4. Auburn. 7-3 (3-3): @Georgia, vs. Alabama.
5. Tennessee. 5-4 (2-3): @Ole Miss, vs. Vandy, @Kentucky.
6. Ole Miss. 6-3 (2-3): vs. Tennessee, vs. LSU, @Miss. St.
7. Georgia. 5-4 (3-3): vs. Auburn, vs. Kentucky, @Georgia Tech
8. Arkansas. 5-4 (2-4): vs. Troy, vs. Miss. St., @LSU.
9. South Carolina. 6-4 (3-4): vs. Florida, vs. Clemson.
10. Kentucky. 5-4 (1-4): @Vandy, @Georgia, vs. Tennessee.
11? Miss. St. 4-5 (2-3): vs. Alabama, @Arkansas, vs. Ole Miss.
9th may be harsh on the ‘Cocks, but they’re under .500 in the SEC and haven’t beaten a team that matters since Sept. 24. Note that teams Nos. 4-7 each play each other this Saturday.
AS A REMINDER, YOUR SEC TIE-INS
1. BCS Bowl 1 2. BCS Bowl 2*3. Capital One 4a. Cotton 4b. Outback 4c. Chik-Fil-A 7a. Music City 7b. Liberty 9. Independence 10. Papajohns.com
For more info, click here.
*With ‘Bama surviving LSU, I don’t see any reasonable way this doesn’t happen.
ONE MAN’S GUESS AT HOW THE NON-AUBURN PORTION OF THE SEC WILL SHAKE OUT
1. Florida (12-0) 2. Alabama (12-0) 3. LSU (9-3) 4. Tennessee (8-4/7-5) 5. Ole Miss (8-4/7-5) 6. Arkansas (8-4/7-5) 7. South Carolina (7-5/6-6) 8. Georgia (7-5/6-6) 9. Kentucky (7-5/6-6) 10? Miss. St. (not likely to make even 6-6)
(This is almost identical to last week’s–Georgia and SC are swapped for reasons you’ll discover later in the post. But that’s it: LSU-’Bama and Arky-SC were the only games of importance Saturday and both worked out the way they were expected to.)
MEANING THAT IF AUBURN FINISHES 7-5
Well, there’s no way they end up in Shreveport or B’ham anymore. Unless Carolina upsets Florida this week, Auburn and the ‘Cocks both end up 7-5 and the Liberty looks like the worst the Tigers will do; as I said last week, Auburn will be both geographically closer to Memphis than Carolina and probably assumed to travel better since the Tigers didn’t go bowling in ’08.
The downside is that Arkansas’s now a step closer to reaching 8-4 and potentially locking a 7-5 Auburn team out of Dallas. Still: 7-5 could still hypothetically mean the Cotton if everything breaks right–i.e. both the Rebels and Hogs are 7-5 and they decide Auburn’s their best draw–with the Liberty the more likely destination if the Liberty/Music City pairing picking between the Tigers and ‘Cocks and Nashville more likely if Carolina slips to 6-6 and the Hogs can go to Memphis.
I projected Auburn to the Music City last week; that remains my best guess in the event of an 0-2 Amen Corner.
MEANING THAT IF AUBURN GOES 8-4
The question doesn’t look like “will they end up in the Cotton?” as much as it is “is there any way they don’t end up in the Cotton?”
I figure there’s two ways: 1. Arkansas sweeps to 8-4 and the Cotton chooses a team that’s already been to Dallas once this season over the less-geographically friendly Tigers, which I don’t think is especially likely 2. LSU loses to both Arkansas and Ole Miss while Tennessee beats the Rebels but gets stunned at Kentucky to finish 7-5, and the Cap One decides Auburn is the best of a bad bunch of options.(I suppose the SEC could break with tradition and send Auburn from the West to the Outback and Tennessee from the East to the Cotton on the basis of … um, Tennessee hasn’t played the Cotton? Like, maybe, ever? Not seeing it.)
That’s it. In every other scenario, 8-4 Auburn is off to have a first-hand look at the JerryDome. Think Durst could hit the scoreboard?
AND IN THE EXCEEDINGLY UNLIKELY EVENT AUBURN FINISHES 9-3
It’s the Cap One if LSU gets upset in Oxford or vs. the Hogs, which I certainly wouldn’t put past them. It’s the Cotton if they don’t. It’s pretty well that simple.
Jinx-ward: Auburn, of course, probably won’t have to worry about this.
AND FINALLY, THIS WEEK’S FINAL OFFICIAL WBE SEC BOWL PROJECTION
Last week I had Auburn going to the Music City after a loss to Georgia; in part because I’m feeling more confident and in part because running the same projections would be boooooorrrrrring, this week I’m expecting a win this Saturday. And the following SEC bowl assignments:
Florida (12-0) to BCS Championship, Alabama (12-0) to Sugar, LSU (9-3) to Capital One, Ole Miss (8-4) to Outback, Auburn (8-4) to Cotton, Tennessee (7-5) to Chik-Fil-A, Arkansas (7-5) to Liberty, South Carolina (7-5) to Music City, Georgia (6-6) to Independence, Kentucky (6-6) to Papajohns.com.
Given that the Dawgs would have to beat the Jackets in Bobby Ross to avoid .500 in the event of a loss Saturday–meaning that one game could be the difference between the Chik-Fil-A and Shreveport–yeah, I’d say this is a big game for them on Saturday.
UT played in the Cotton in 05 (after the 2004 season) and clown-stomped Texas A&M. UGA and UT are really the only east teams I could see going to Dallas, just as Auburn, LSU, or bama are the only West teams I could see going to Tampa
Interested to know who is projected to be the Big 12 opponent in the Cotton. Probably not ISU anymore, eh?
I checked ESPN’s projections (via Chris Low’s blog) and it’s got Okie St; the other guy said we were at the CapOne v. Iowa.
… Isn’t the Cotton Bowl going to be in the new Cowboys Stadium this year?
Jonesy, I could see Ole Miss in the Outback this season since they went to Dallas last year. But otherwise, I agree.
AubOrange, yes. That’s the “JerryDome” I’m referring to.
beermotor, barring a Poke collapse I think it pretty much has to be Okie St. after the Sooners’ loss last weekend. Even if the Sooners win Bedlam, they go to Dallas every year–would think the Cotton would want someone else.
i think there’s a chance we could see an Auburn/K-State match-up for the Cotton, esp after Ok St loses to Oklahoma.
You gotta remember that Ole Miss isn’t even bowl eligible yet. They have to win one of their last three games to even make it in one. They “should” beat Mississippi St., but they also should have beaten a couple of other teams on their schedule that they lost to.
Matt, yeah, the Rebels (along with the Dawgs) are probably the hardest team to figure over the last three weeks. They could go 3-0, they could go 0-3. My thought is that 1. they’re good enough to earn a split at home vs. UT and LSU 2. much as I respect what Mullen’s done, the Egg Bowl was 45-0 last year. I think that’s a game that matters to the Rebels and they’ll be focused enough to win it.
Dallas, TX…………love me some bbq beef brisqette…some Stockyard rodeo. Buried a terrible towel at Jerrydome on July 4
WDE & GO STEELERS !!
Problem here is that if the 9-3 scenario happens to shake down (the best case scenario EVER) and then Bama loses to Florida in the SEC Championship, then nobody in the SEC would be getting the second BCS Bowl bid, taking Bama to Cap, LSU to Cotton, and us to the blankity blank blank Chick-fil-a AGAIN.
AubOrange, have you seen the BCS candidates elsewhere across the country? Latest projections either choose Iowa or Boise. There’s no way an 11-2 Tide team doesn’t make it.
You’re probably right — I forgot about the Big East automatic bid so I was counting Cincinatti as one of the at-large contenders. Notre Dame was also knocked out of it this past week. But, they’d probably take a two loss USC over a Bama coming off a two loss skid.
I don’t know, there’s a lot of moving parts there.