Independence Stadium in Shreveport. Very likely no longer Auburn's bowl destination.
With Auburn having become bowl eligible this week, it’s time to take a look at where the Tigers might end up spending their postseason. Breakin’ it down step-by-step:
CURRENT SEC PECKING ORDER
1a. Florida. 8-0 (6-0), remaining schedule: vs. Vandy, @Carolina, vs. FIU, vs. Florida St.
1b. Alabama. 8-0 (5-0): vs. LSU, @Miss. St., vs. Chattanooga, @Auburn.
3. LSU. 7-1 (4-1): @Alabama, vs. La. Tech, @Ole Miss, vs. Arkansas
4. South Carolina. 6-3 (3-3): @Arkansas, vs. Florida, vs. Clemson.
5. Auburn. 6-3 (3-3): vs. Furman, @Georgia, vs. Alabama.
6. Tennessee. 4-4 (2-3): vs. Memphis, @Ole Miss, vs. Vandy, @Kentucky.
7. Ole Miss. 5-3 (2-3): vs. Northern Arizona, vs. Tennessee, vs. LSU, @Miss. St.
8. Georgia. 4-4 (3-3): vs. Tennessee Tech, vs. Auburn, vs. Kentucky, @Georgia Tech
9. Arkansas. 4-4 (1-4): vs. Carolina, vs. Troy, vs. Miss. St., @LSU
10. Kentucky. 4-4 (1-4): vs. Eastern Kentucky, @Vandy, @Georgia, vs. Tennessee
11? Miss. St. 4-5 (2-3): vs. Alabama, @Arkansas, vs. Ole Miss.
Obviously, you can quibble with this order a bit if you like. I have Tennessee a bump for being “hot” and Georgia a knock for being “cold.”
AS A REMINDER, YOUR SEC TIE-INS
1. BCS Bowl 1 2. BCS Bowl 2*3. Capital One 4a. Cotton 4b. Outback 4c. Chik-Fil-A 7a. Music City 7b. Liberty 9. Independence 10. Papajohns.com
For more info, click here.
*Note that technically the SEC isn’t guaranteed a second BCS team, but with the Big 12, ACC, and Big East all likely incapable of sending a runner-up onto the BCS, it would take both ‘Bama and LSU finishing with three regular season losses–i.e. Bama loses to LSU, either MSU/Auburn, and Florida while LSU falls to Ole Miss and Arkansas–to keep the SEC West out of the BCS. That’s not happening.
ONE MAN’S GUESS AT HOW THE NON-AUBURN PORTION OF THE SEC WILL SHAKE OUT
1. Florida (12-0) 2. Alabama (12-0/11-1) 3. LSU (10-2/9-3) 4. Tennessee (8-4/7-5) 5. Ole Miss (8-4/7-5) 6. Arkansas (8-4/7-5) 7. Georgia (7-5/6-6) 8. South Carolina (7-5/6-6) 9. Kentucky (7-5/6-6) 10? Miss. St. (not likely to make even 6-6)
(Note here that SEC bowl projection this year is a total biznatch, as the league could wind up with six or seven teams all with 7-5 records.)
MEANING THAT IF AUBURN FINISHES 7-5
After finishing the year on a two-game losing streak, they’ll likely wind up behind Georgia as long as the Dawgs hold serve vs. Kentucky. That would likely put Georgia in the hometown Chik-Fil-A, Tennessee in the Outback or Cotton, and Arkansas or Ole Miss–whichever can get to 8 wins–in the other. (I’d expect Tennessee to the Cotton if the West team is Ole Miss, since the Rebels went to Dallas last year.) If neither the Hogs nor Rebels win 8, the Cotton might take Auburn even at 7-5, since a) the three would be stuck in a three-way tie in the SEC standings b) both those teams have been to the Cotton more recently c) Arkansas has played in Dallas already once this season. But I think the head-to-head loss to the Hogs, geographical convenience, and Auburn’s less-impressive end to the season would mean the Cotton would take Arkansas anyway.
That would drop Auburn to either the Music City or Liberty; it’s hard to see them dropping further unless 1. Ole Miss wins 8 2. Carolina beats Arkansas and Clemson 3. Arkansas beats LSU. That would likely drop Auburn all the way to ninth in the pecking order and punch the Tigers’ ticket to Shreveport, unless Kentucky and Georgia both made it to 7-5. (In that case, the league might ask the Independence to take the ‘Cats and let the Pizza Bowl have Auburn for attendance purposes. This is the only scenario I see that lands Auburn in B’ham.) But if Carolina finishes with less than 8–and they very, very likely will–I’d expect the Liberty to take Auburn over the ‘Cocks, since Memphis is geographically closer and Auburn should travel a bit better after not going to a bowl game last year. And of course, if the Hogs lose to both the ‘Cocks and LSU to finish 6-6, no way they get taken ahead of Auburn.
So, to sum: 7-5 means a very slim shot at the Cotton–maybe the Outback if Georgia sweeps to 8-4, which seems highly unlikely at this stage–and an even slimmer chance of sliding all the way to the Independence. But most likely it’s either the Liberty or Music City, probably the Music City if the two bowls are choosing between Arkansas and Auburn, the Liberty if it’s Auburn and South Carolina.
MEANING THAT IF AUBURN GOES 8-4
They’d look like a near-lock for the Cotton if you ask me. It’s one thing for the Cotton to take a 7-5 bunch of Hogs over a 7-5 Auburn team that had ended the year on a two-game losing streak and last beat a I-A team on Halloween; it’s another to pass on an Auburn team that won three of its last four in favor of an Arkansas team that went to the Cotton two years ago and played the JerryDome just this year.
The only way an 8-4 Auburn team wouldn’t land in the Cotton, in my estimation, was if Arkansas swept to 8-4 while Tennessee finished at 7-5. That might move the Hogs to the Cotton and Auburn to the Outback in the name of geographical proximity (while the Vols or Rebels went to the Chik-Fil-A) … but even in this scenario, you’d probably just have the Hogs go to the Outback to avoid the repeat trip to Dallas.
AND IN THE EXCEEDINGLY UNLIKELY EVENT AUBURN FINISHES 9-3
It won’t matter unless LSU drops two games. Even given the head-to-head result, I do think the Capital One would take a 9-3 Auburn riding a four-game winning streak and fresh off a shocking upset of ‘Bama over a 9-3 group of Bayou Bengals that had fallen to either Ole Miss or Arkansas down the stretch–Auburn would be a huge story by the point and sending Auburn to Florida and LSU to Dallas would make more geographic sense anyway. But LSU would have to lose in Oxford or at home to the Hogs in addition to the Tide; otherwise, Auburn heads to the Cotton or Outback under the same scenarios outlined above.
Not that any of that matters very much regardless.
AND FINALLY, THIS WEEK’S FINAL OFFICIAL WBE SEC BOWL PROJECTION
Florida (12-0) to BCS Championship, Alabama (12-0) to Sugar, LSU (9-3) to Capital One, Ole Miss (8-4) to Outback*, Tennessee (7-5) to Cotton, Georgia (7-5) to Chik-Fil-A, Arkansas (7-5) to Liberty, Auburn (7-5) to Music City, South Carolina (7-5) to Independence, Kentucky (6-6) to Papajohns.com.
We’ll do this again next week. Maybe I’ll be a little more optimistic then.
*I think the Rebels survive their trip to Starkville and split the two home dates with Tennessee and LSU. Even if that win does come over the Vols and knock Tennessee to 7-5, I’m assuming the excitement surrounding that program with Kiffin, the 4-4 SEC record, and the annual surge vs. Vandy and Kentucky would make the Vols the hottest property amongst the 7-5 teams.
Fun to be having this conversation this season, isn’t it? As opposed to, you know, wondering when/whether the guillotine will fall on the coach’s head and how long the program will be stuck in the mire as a result.
Thanks for the breakdown. I’m not all that concerned with which bowl Auburn ends up in — any bowl marks a step forward, and buys the coaching staff those critical extra weeks of practice.
I would note that while Lane Kiffin has plenty of detractors, one thing he clearly has a felt understanding of is that old maxim about there being no such thing as bad publicity. Creating buzz around your program is part of the package. It reminds me of a workplace, where some people come to work, keep their head down, remain loyal and quietly work hard — while others also work hard, but make sure everyone knows about it, and knows about their desire to move up. The second group might be annoying, and it might not be entirely fair, but in the end those are the folks often first in line for promotions. That’s Lane Kiffin, and as you point out above, he’s built excitement about the UT program on a national level.
I don’t really like Lane Kiffin, and I loathe Tennessee, but I can admire what he’s achieved.
I’ve been saying this all year long, even during the October slump – don’t count out the Tigers in the Iron Bowl.
As scary as the Tide seems, that game is tailor made for the upset of the year. We’ll have nothing else to play for and two weeks to prepare. I fully expect the Tigers to pin their ears back and let ‘em have it like the first quarter of the 2005 game.
War Eagle
Sullivan013
And the best thing about Kiffin is he’s 0-1 against Auburn.
Is it just me or does Miss St. look like a trap game for the Bammers?, On second though probably not. MsSt cannot move the football, same problem they had under Croom.
Anyways I think AU will win at UGA, they seem to have taken a step back.
I think we should have an Orange-out and wear those orange uniforms from NCAA ’10 you post on JCCW against the Bammers.
I always want Auburn to go to the best bowl game possible. But if it’s between a trip to Dallas or Atlanta, for personal reasons I’d like to see us in the Chick-fil-A Bowl; I could make that trip and see the game. I also wouldn’t mind Music City (1.5 hour drive from hometown of Huntsville) or Liberty (half of my family is from Memphis, and Beale St. RULES). Here’s hoping for 9-3.
[...] for in-depth bowl game predictions specific to the conference and Auburn, look no further than Jerry’s post at TWER. My own take on the bowl picture is we’re still likely to see the inside of Shreveport or [...]
“The look-the feel of COTTON………..the fabric of our lives, I mean bowl hopes.”
You (the person who wrote the original article) are an idiot. How can bama and UF both finish 12-0. In case you hadn’t noticed, they are in the same conference and will most likely play in the SEC championship. You should give up sports writing, move out of your mother’s basement and get a real job.
This is totally self-serving: but I would be ALL OVER a visit to Memphis. I’d even arrange a meet-up at Graceland with other Auburn fans.
(Mark …. pssst … those are regular-season records. They ‘ll both be 12-0 when they go to Atlanta. Because the NCAA switched to a 12-game schedule a couple of years ago. Guess you missed that. But don’t worry, I won’t mention it out loud.)
[...] Updating last week’s effort: [...]
[...] We’re right back to where we were two weeks ago: [...]