I haven’t read much of the media response–be it “mainstream” or “new”–to Auburn’s loss to Kentucky last night. It was one of those losses that makes you not want to think about college football for a while, so instead of following through on my plan to watch Ron Franklin call Oklahoma St. and Mizzou into the later hours, I sat through an episode of House on DVR, read a book for a while, and went to bed early. This morning I turned on a Premier League match in the background, poured myself a cup of coffee and then a second, and read some more. The wound, I’m afraid, is still tender.
So I can’t say I know that Auburn’s offensive displays through the first five weeks are being labeled as “a mirage.” But I would wager they are, because “a mirage” is usually the first term that comes to the sports media mind when a team’s perceived expectations, abilities, coaching wizardry, etc. disappear in the space of 60 minutes of football like so many cartoon oases.
But those first five weeks, I’m here to tell you, were not a mirage. A mirage is a thing seen that isn’t actually there, and the Auburn offense we all saw in those first five weeks was there. 459 yards and 5.5 yards a play gained in Knoxville, the strongest offensive showing made against the Vols yet this year. 400 yards and 34 offensive points against West Virginia, their roughest defensive outing of the season. Mississippi State has faced two of the country’s best-coached and most efficient offenses in Georgia Tech and Houston; Auburn’s offense performed every bit as well against the Bulldogs as either of those. It’s just not accurate, to say Auburn’s offense wasn’t any good all along, that we were seeing things that weren’t there. They were there all right.
They just aren’t there any more. Auburn’s offense was good. Now it’s not. Now it is bad, 7 points at home against Kentucky bad. It’s not that we’ve now seen the “real” Auburn offense; it’s that over the past two weeks we’ve seen the Auburn offense transform into something else, like Cinderella’s clock striking midnight and all the fabulous white horses turning back into the mice they always were.
Chris Todd is Chris Todd again. Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachery are the guys with two career catches between them they were when the season began. Andrew McCain is once more the fifth-year senior who’s never seen any meaninfgul playing time. Gus Malzahn arrived and like the college football fairy godmother he is, he waved his magic wand and turned the rotting pumpkin of an offense Tony Franklin and the Tuberville staff left behind into something magical. But in the end, even he hasn’t been able to keep it from changing back, hasn’t been able to alter its essential pumpkinhood.
So where does Auburn go from here? I don’t know. Malzahn may have a little magic left, and he won’t be under the illusion that his quarterback will be the fully functioning QB that led the way to 5-0; whether it’s because his arm is wilting again or his head has loosened a bit the way quarterbacks’ heads do sometimes or (most likely) some horrible, inextricable combination of both, Todd is not that same Todd. (More on this in a second.) But there is pride in that offensive line, power in Ben Tate, speed in Onterio McCalebb, determination in Zachery and still, I believe, potential in Mario Fannin. There are blocks here for Malzahn to build around, whether his fairy dust is working or not. And most of Auburn’s remaining opponents, while probably stronger than Kentucky, are not dramatically stronger. Hope is far, far from lost.
But if last night’s game put me in mind of Cinderella, and the Disney version you’re all thinking of that gave us the iconic mice and the pumpkin and the godmother, it also reminded me of the original Grimm Brothers’ version of the story, which is something very different. There are birds that peck out people’s eyes. Cinderella isn’t just forced to do the chores, she’s set pointless tasks by her step-relatives just for the cruelty of it. The stepsisters cut off parts of their feet to fit the slipper and are given away by the blood that oozes from the shoe and soaks their stockings.
Before you start worrying where this is going, trust me, I’m not going to try and turn those kinds of images into some sort of strained, hyper-specific Auburn analogy. But the Grimms have a point I think Auburn fans (your humble Auburn Blogger certainly included) might want to heed: going from a life in the ashes of 2008 to palatial SEC splendor isn’t a matter of just waving a magic wand and having catchy showtunes sung to us by cherub-faced animals. There’s going to be hard work that seems like it’s for nothing. There’s going to be horrible people who laugh at us. There’s going to be moments of happiness, but there’s also going to be moments of doubt and fear and sorrow. There’s going to be blood.
So in short: yes, Auburn fans, we’re going to have our happy ending some day*. There’s no reason to doubt that yet. But first, first come the long nights like last night, where there’s just nothing to do but sigh, applaud our team’s effort and sacrifice, turn off the TV, lie down, and dream of the better days to come.
Other assorted observations
— Man, what on earth do we do with Chris Todd? His yards-per-attempt mark in his last four games against real (i.e. non-Ball St.) competition look like this: 9.1, 6.7, 4.6, 3.8. Your QB-observin’ mileage may vary, but I’d say those numbers track exactly the subjective appraisal of how well he’s been playing: great vs. WVU, good-but-not-outstanding vs. Tennessee, poor vs. Arkansas, and then rock-bottom against Kentucky.
I’m of the opinion that however much he says otherwise, his arm is bothering him. The throw to Fannin last night–where he had time to set himself, plant, and throw to a wide-open receiver, only to leave it a full five yards short–looked to me for all the world like the throw of a quarterback whose arm just isn’t all there. And if his arm’s not there, it’s a good bet his head is worried about his arm’s not there, and thus isn’t all there either.
I love how much effort Todd has put into this program and the dedication he’s shown, I love that he’s given us the gifts of the West Virginia win and the bombs to Zachery and those great escapes against Tennessee, I love how he handled himself through the coaching upheaval and become the sort of player I’m glad to have at Auburn. But this offense–and by extension, Auburn–can’t succeed with him playing the way he’s played the last two weeks. It’s still too early to think about replacing him, but do I think we have to have that conversation if Todd fails to look any better against LSU this week? Yes, I’m afraid I do.
— I’ll have to rewatch to make sure, but I’m also fairly certain that’s been the worst outing for Auburn from a hands perspective. Adams missed more than one ball that he’s made a habit of bringing in this season.
— If a lot of us have been willing to give Gus Malzahn more credit for Auburn’s wins than an offensive coordinator would usually get, he also has to take more of the blame for last night’s non-showing than we’d give Chizik. The inability to get the passing game going, the lack of a sustained drive, and especially the killer pre-snap sloppiness–if Chizik’s not going to micromanage the offense, then those things are all on Malzahn, and it’s particularly disappointing coming off of a loss in which they were all already an issue. I felt like Chizik got the team’s overall focus and energy back where it should have been, and Roof’s unit showed some definite improvement. Malzahn didn’t rise to the challenge, and while we all know he doesn’t have a whole lot to work with when Todd and the receivers are playing the way they did, it’ll be a little worrying if the penalties and mental errors continue in Baton Rouge.
— How ’bout a pick-me-up: Ed Christian, a four-star offensive tackle, committed to Auburn today anyway. More first thing tomorrow morning, but netting a four-star offensive lineman is a huge, huge deal. See? It’s never as bad as it seems.
— 35.4 net yards per-punt. What’s going on here, Durst? (Oh, and 7.0 yards per kickoff return. I swear, Auburn’s special teams cannot take a step forward–in their kickoff returns, in the FG block–without taking one back, can they?)
— There’s more in yesterday’s Gameday post.
Three Stars
Kodi Burns. Ran with more of a purpose than I would say I’ve seen from him yet this season–I know the 6.2 a carry average is a high–and completed his one pass.
The offensive line. I know, I know, the penalties were awful. But Auburn ran for 220 yards and averaged 4.5 an attempt without any big 60-yard bursts to distort the statistics; the longest run of the night was 19 yards. Especially with the passing game giving the ‘Cats no reason to back off, I don’t think we can ask for much more consistency than that. Zero sakcs allowed (again) is pretty cool, too.
Josh Bynes. 9 tackles (6 solo) and a sack.
Three (non-passing game) areas for improvement
Rush defense. Don’t care who we’re facing, 5.8 yards-per-carry is too damn much, and letting Cobb loose in the fourth quarter was backbreaker.
Penalties. Duh.
Drive-finishing. Auburn only had the one shot at the red zone and converted, but still, the Tigers also had drives of 30, 67, 34, 24, and 27 yards result in zero points. You can’t use the “the offense needs a first down to get going excuse” when it regularly got two or three first downs and then petered out.
Your bottom line
And so we all end up right about where we thought we’d be to start the season: 6-6 at the minimum, hoping for an upset of LSU, Ole Miss, or Georgia to get us to 7-5. Given Auburn’s depth issues and LSU’s lack of offensive firepower, no time like the present, gents.
*Casting the Chiznick as Prince Charming is taking the metaphor a step too far, but at least he’s got the jaw for it.
Photo via.
If you look at the play-by-play, there is even more cause for concern about the passing game. Auburn had 11 offensive possessions. Of the 10 that did not end in a score, five ended in an incomplete pass on 3rd and 5 or less. A passing game that cannot complete passes on 3rd and short is no passing game.
Jerry
Quick question/thought on Todd. He took a couple of awkward shots in the UT game. He hasn’t been as effective throwing since then. You’ve broken down all these games and watched them in detail. Did he perhaps tweak something and isn’t letting on? Everyone seemed the question of “is the shoulder OK” in the presser, and they sort of blew it off. Just wondering on your thoughts.
so that seems to be the consensus, that Todd’s arm is done again. whether it is that it just needs a rest or is done, done i don’t know, but with as good as this staff has seemed to be so far, surely they see/ know the same thing. will they just ride it out or will they make a change? even if its just for a game to let Todd get some rest? it will be interesting to see hold they handle it.
i was at the game and it didn’t hit me that his arm could be failing, but i know that i commented a few times that he had to get the ball to t he receivers so that they at least had a CHANCE to catch it. there were several balls that didn’t even get close and also some receivers that were wide open on the far side of the field, and it looked like Todd saw them, but would not, or could not make the throw. it is breaking my heart to see this turn around. last night was hard to watch especially in the 40 degree weather. i hope the coaches just do whatever gives up the best chance to win. i hope Todd, if somthing is really wrong with his are, follows Kodi’s lead and lets Malzahn know and allows the coaches the info to make the best decision. Heres hoping we pull it together for the other tigers. War Eagle. Thanks for your thoughts Jerry.
I agree with you MPG. I was also there, and one play I believe in the 3rd- it was 3rd down before we went for it on 4th (instead of taking the field goal with the wind, which I didn’t understand)- -and the play was clearly designed to roll the pocket one way, and then throw back to E Smith. The ball was high to him, but the announcers said (and I saw) Trott standing all alone on the “G” waving his arms. Don’t know if Todd didn’t see, or if thought “I can’t get it there”. Then that pass to Fannin which short hopped 6 yards short. and what about the 3rd and 5 throw late in the game where he simply chucked it out of bounds? was that an arm thing, or locking onto one receiver only- and when that wasn’t there- -chuck it?
I agree with you, though. Surely the coaches can see the deal. However, maybe Caudle is that far behind that we can’t go there. And they don’t want to mortgage the future (Rollison) for at best 1 more win (assume LSU will be tough just because it’s at LSU, Ole Miss who knows, UGA depends on which team shows up, and then I start to get nauseous thinking of Friday after Tgiving). So, maybe they see– and maybe they think they will coach around Todd for a while. Caudle’s a JR, right? So, why not get a leg up on next year’s QB race, if possible.
So far only watched the first quarter on SEC Replay due to no TV coverage (thanks Comcast) but Todd made a couple of 30+ yard throws that looked OK to me. Of course both throws were into double coverage. I know I’m really pulling for the kid because I really liked the Todd/Burns saga.
I find it sort of ironic that defensive “genius” Monte Kiffin couldn’t stop us but the two “brand x” coordinators collared us pretty good.
JB
On a better note, according to the AJC, we received a commitment from Ed Christian, an highly sought after lineman from South GA.
Read:
http://blogs.ajc.com/recruiting/2009/10/19/super-11-ot-christian-picks-auburn-after-fsu-spurn/
JB
j,
that’s a nice point there. it hadn’t even dawned on me that todd’s arm may be hurt, but after going back and looking at some things, i think this is a very real possibility. he was too accurate in those first 5 games and suddenly it all went south. however….
my concern all year long has been our D. roof is a step backwards from rhoads imho. our personnel is close to the same but the performance/schemes aren’t. chiz needs to address this.
if there is good news in all of this, it is that we’ll probably keep our coordinators around for a couple of more years.
war eagle!
API, that’s a very cool and very telling stat.
WDEwg, Todd did get hit more in the UT and Arky games than just about the first five combined, and he did get up a little bit slow after one hit vs. UT in particular … but I don’t ever remember him grabbing at his shoulder or arm afterwards, and it wasn’t like he ever got up more slowly than just the typical “Wow, that one hurt” kind of slow. If his arm isn’t right, it seems more likely to me it’s just the shoulder wearing down again. Hopefully the rewatch will help make things a bit clearer.
JB, before the UT game Auburn was making its living off of big plays and bombs, Kiffin adjusted accordingly, and got beat in the passing game on screens and short stuff. Arky and UK have been all over those plays and forced Auburn to try and go downfield to get anything out of the passing game… and it hasn’t happened. I think as Chizik said the problem is more execution than scheme, but I may be giving Malzahn too much benefit of the doubt. We’ll see vs. LSU.
HBC, I did think at game’s end “Well, we can put that talk about only having Malzahn around for a year to rest.” Good point.
I hesitate to compare our AU team to the forces of darkness, but there’s another team that’s playing pretty good ball now that went 6-6 under a new coach a couple years ago, lost games it should not have lost, followed up with a banner recruiting class and improved in a hurry.
Am I seeing things, or is Onterio hurt? He doesn’t seem very fast and I was sure I saw him gimpy at the end of one of his runs. If true, I think this has as much to do with our offensive woes as does Todd’s disappearance. Without someone who can make the corner, its clear that defenses don’t have nearly as difficult a time reacting to us.
We all knew this team was fragile, and I guess we are seeing how fragile all that success was. We needed EVERYBODY at peak performance, and now two of the more important members of the offense are having real issues, and the whole offense has ground to a halt.
I’m not willing to write Roof off yet. Partly because I wasn’t a big fan of Rhoads, and partly because this team is undermanned and completely sold out to being able to score frequently in the hurry-up. I’m OK with being sold out to that, and its hard to fairly judge the defensive coordinator when you live and die by a high octane offensive philosophy. Right now we are dying by it.
Another chip stacked against Roof is the utter and complete lack of depth. For the first 3 quarters, we stuff Kentucky’s first and 2nd down runs, and then forced them into bad passes on 3rd. But then the offense started to implode, they got out there for a couple of back to back posessions, got tired, started arm tackling (and whiffing) and BAMMO- -we were done. You can’t expect 2.25 LB’s (Adam Herring wraps up the opposition and slides off like they are greased pigs) to play 80 snaps at a high level (week after week after week). He’s got no depth.
The announcers mentioned the wind, so maybe those two (or more) long balls that came up very short were due to the wind and not Todd’s shoulder. That excuse at least helps me sleep at night.
I think we’re seeing what I feared in the early season: a growing number of injuries to key players that highlight our poor depth in several positions. Keep in mind, most of these injuries aren’t the kind that keep players out of play, but lacking a reasonable number of players to allow rotations, especially on defense is hurting the Tigers. The end result is poorer play and lack of speed.
I too noticed a lack of speed by Onterreo. Is it just my imagination, but we’ve also seen fewer ‘jet’ sweep plays that were the big ground gainers against La Tech and Miss State? With those plays removed, the openings aren’t created inside, making the running game reliant on the power running of one Ben Tate (who is curiously absent from any Heisman talk – why?).
Our short passing game seems to be well coached by the last two defenses we’ve faced. More film available is surely the key. Defensive Coordinators are seeing more of what works against us, and there seems less confusion for opposing defenses.
However, this is still a good and talented team. I still won’t count them out in any game, the Iron Bowl included. The odds against us are no more than they have been in the past, and there are some remarkable wins against all the teams we have yet to face, especially when Auburn was the underdog. Whether we show up 6-5 or 9-2, I still say we can beat the Tide.
War Eagle!
Sullivan013
Sullivan
I think you may have hit on something- -that we have guys who still play, but are banged up. We sure could have used a bye now, or a week ago.
Agree on Tate’s lack of buzz. I’m now seeing some pockets talk about Ingram, give me a break. Just the normal AL media bias. Frustrating.
Todd looks hurt, I’m in that camp, he hasn’t looked right since getting knocked around on rocky top. Burns is a wildcat qb and he’s perfect for it and I don’t want to see him back there every down. Caudle looked good throwing at aday and I know it was ball st but he showed the wheels, fyi, he does have a better 40 time than burns. So who’s the qb, it’s Todd but I feel like it’s gotta be a short leash. Mccaleb is hurt and looks it, why did we hand it off to him at the goal line, that play has Tate written all over it. I thought the defense played good, probably their best 45 minutes of the year, they just ran out of gas in the 4th because they had zero support from the offense. Also, why can’t your team figure out a snap count at home in a stadium that was only 3/4 full, bad coaching. Quick, circle the wagons a bunch of drunk cajuns are headed our way.